Railcar Market: Fleet Shrinks as Demand Rises (2026 Outlook)

The North American railcar market faces growing uncertainty, with fleets shrinking despite healthy carload volumes. Eric Marchetto, EVP & CFO of Trinity Industries, breaks down why current build rates are below replacement levels, leading to a tighter market. Learn how tariffs, interest rates, and a surprising trade complaint are impacting fleet planning decisions and what this means for future rail service consistency.

The North American railcar fleet is contracting at a time when freight demand is strengthening, a combination that Eric Marchetto, executive vice president and CFO of Trinity Industries, says could soon force shippers and lessors into new builds at elevated prices. Association of American Railroads data released this week showed total North American carloads up 1.6% in week 39 year over year, while intermodal volume surged 6.9%, lifting combined traffic 4.4% above the same week in 2024.

Marchetto, who has been at Trinity since 1995, said the industry is on pace to build roughly 25,000 railcars this year while scrapping more than 35,000, leaving the fleet in a net deficit. “We see cars in storage coming out, but we really haven’t seen anybody change their fleet planning yet,” he said, noting that slower train speeds and longer dwell times compound the tightening. The intermodal car segment is already at a six- to seven-year low in storage levels, adding further strain.

“I feel like if the pace of railcar loadings picks up, something’s got to give, and it’s going to be people are going to have to add to their fleet, and there’s not a lot of slack in the existing fleet to add to,” Marchetto said.

Tariff uncertainty is the primary reason fleet decisions have stalled. Marchetto noted that tariff policies have changed, on average, every week in some form, making capital expenditure planning nearly impossible for industrial shippers. “When you say it could be X, or it could be X plus ten, or it could be X plus twenty-five, and we don’t know, then people tend to wait,” he said. He added that waiting is unlikely to improve economics, as steel costs, interest rates, and lease rates are all trending higher heading into 2026.

The trade complaint filed by Union Tank Car — a Berkshire subsidiary and the largest tank car owner in the world — against Mexican-built tank cars adds another layer of pressure. Trinity has manufactured railcars in Mexico since 1998, and Marchetto called the complaint “frustrating,” warning it could raise car prices, push lease rates higher, and intensify inflationary pressures on industrial shippers. Trinity is also investing in expanding its Longview, Texas, facility. Section 232 steel tariffs have already driven up the cost of hot-rolled coil and steel plate, both critical inputs for tank car production.

On the traffic side, U.S. carload volume was up 2.4% for week 39 and intermodal was up 7.4%, bringing overall U.S. volume up 5.1% versus the prior year. Chemicals — the largest sector for Trinity’s rail business — were essentially flat at negative 0.1%, a persistent concern for Marchetto. Coal posted a rare weekly gain, though it remains down 3.3% for the year; the uptick likely reflects utilities rebuilding winter stockpiles amid rising natural gas prices, which make coal more competitive.

Looking ahead to 2026, Marchetto said he is watching for a broader industrial recovery beyond data-center-driven demand. While data center construction has boosted aggregate and cement shipments, that tailwind fades once facilities are built. Chemical traffic and broad-based manufacturing growth — particularly from onshoring — are the metrics he is most focused on. Surface Transportation Board data showing manifest on-time performance above 85% for Class 1 railroads in late September offered one encouraging signal, though Marchetto stressed that service predictability, not raw speed, is what ultimately drives shippers to choose rail over truck.

• Trinity Industries projects the industry will build ~25,000 railcars in 2025 while scrapping 35,000-plus, shrinking the North American fleet even as weekly volumes rise sharply.
• Tariff policy changes averaging once per week are freezing shipper fleet planning decisions, while Section 232 steel tariffs are pushing railcar and lease costs higher.
• North American intermodal car storage is at a six- to seven-year low; chemical traffic — Trinity’s largest segment — remained flat year over year in week 39.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.