Following the most recent escalation of the U.S.-China trade war – in which levies on Chinese goods rose to 104% – carriers and shippers alike are wondering how domestic freight flows will be affected.
Here’s how to know the score in just four easy charts:
Maritime: Rough seas ahead
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Since recovering from February’s lull caused by Lunar New Year, ocean bookings have been remarkably strong this year. While the volume of twenty-foot equivalent units headed to U.S. shores is not quite in line with the barn-burning 2022, bookings averaged 2.7% higher year over year in the first quarter of 2025 and are presently up 5.6% y/y.
Keep in mind that the span between booking and unlading is roughly six weeks – including lead times, delays at the port of origin and/or discharge, and, of course, the actual transit.
Also, the above chart reflects a 14-day moving average of bookings based on their estimated date of departure — a look at bookings based on the date they were made already betrays a fairly substantial decline.
In other words, the strength in bookings today will not translate into domestic freight volumes until May at the earliest.
There is a growing concern among analysts, however, that this performance was achieved by robbing Peter to pay Paul. Shippers have been bracing for these tariffs since the reelection of President Donald Trump last November, which has led to a massive frontloading of imports.
As can be seen in the above chart, maritime’s peak season does not usually ramp up until late summer.
Gene Seroka, executive director at the Port of Los Angeles, has predicted that volumes at the United States’ busiest port will decline 10% y/y in the back half of 2025 because of this pull-forward effect. Freightos’ analysis has similarly forecast a “subdued” peak season this year.
If booking volumes remain at today’s levels over the coming months – or, more improbably, if a typical peak season rally transpires – it will keep domestic freight markets stable.
If, on the other hand, bookings start to tumble as they did in 2022, it will likely spell another trucking recession just as the industry is struggling to recover from the previous one.
Intermodal: Eating truckload’s lunch
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Rail intermodal has gained massively at the expense of dry van truckload volumes and looks to continue doing so for the foreseeable future.
The two primary reasons behind intermodal’s gain in market share are time and cost. Intermodal volume has risen massively along certain dense corridors, such as those transcontinental lanes outbound from Los Angeles where intermodal has a distinct cost advantage over long-haul trucking.
On a per-mile basis, the national average dry van contract rate stands at $2.33. The average intermodal rate is 30% cheaper at $1.62.
But time is the other key factor at play.
The tariff-induced frontloading of imports has all but eliminated the time sensitivity of many shipments. If imports are not lingering in coastal warehouses, shippers are slow-walking them on the rails, which serves as a means of stashing inventory without renting warehousing space at exorbitant rates.
Rail carriers have also gone some way to improve their service after the catastrophic failures of recent years, making this mode more viable for shippers.
All in all, loaded intermodal volumes are up 9.9% y/y. If this growth continues over the coming months, it will be an ominous sign for truckload demand, especially the dry van and long-haul segments.
Truckload: Having its lunch eaten
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If you can remember how the truckload market fared in 2023, you’ll know that any comparisons made with that year are unfavorable, to say the least.
Unfortunately, 2023 is an apt benchmark for how truckload demand is currently performing. Although last year saw some impressive growth in freight volumes – even outshining 2022 for a few weeks – 2025 has seen a major regression, thanks in part to intermodal’s aforementioned growth.
It goes without saying that demand is highest when shippers need freight to move quickly to its final destination. But given the sheer abundance of inventory that is loitering in warehouses or on the rails, no such urgency is being felt.
That said, early April is a historically soft period for truckload demand, as bulky durable goods for the summer shopping season – think outdoor furniture and the like – are not yet being moved closer to consumption centers.
Still, the market is suffering from weak demand even after accounting for seasonal trends: National dry van volumes are down 9.5% y/y at present.
Unlike the ocean market, the domestic truckload market will likely see a peak season to some degree, given the fact that certain freight is simply not suitable for the rails. But the strength of this peak will depend mostly on the continued health of the U.S. consumer, which is precarious – as it has been, albeit, for several years.
Moreover, any market tightness that will result from this peak season will probably be localized to certain regions and equipment types, unlike the broad rally of 2020-21.
Rates: A fistful of reasons to hope
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Yet just because the forecast for truckload demand looks grim, that doesn’t mean carriers are sure to suffer.
The main reason behind FreightWaves’ calling for an industry recovery in 2024 was the much-needed shedding of excess capacity from the marketplace – a trend that has continued into 2025.
Tender rejection rates, which track trucking capacity relative to demand, have been shockingly stable in recent months. At the time of writing, carriers are rejecting 6.09% of loads moving under contract, which usually implies their confidence in securing spot-market alternatives at higher rates.
Compare this level to 2024, when only 3.61% of contracted loads were being rejected, or even 2023’s 2.87%. Needless to say, the pricing power pendulum is swinging back into carriers’ favor.
Looking at all-in spot rates, however, this shift might not be apparent: The National Truckload Index (NTI) is trending unfavorably in line with 2023-24. But this reading is mostly caused by the declining cost of diesel, retail prices for which have fallen 10.3% y/y.
Ignoring the impact of fuel, then, spot rates are up 10 cents per mile, or 6.2% y/y.
The future of linehaul spot rates depends almost entirely on the rate at which excess capacity continues to leave the market, given that demand is, at best, likely to be stable around current levels.
There is some indication that the rate of carrier exits has slowed: In March, new trucking authorities exceeded those terminated, disrupting a nearly three-year string of net departures.
Furthermore, used truck prices have bounced off their recent lows and have partially stabilized, implying that carriers are eager to get off the sidelines and get back into the game – a worrisome prospect for rates if demand remains stagnant.
At the end of the day, however, linehaul spot rates will move with tender rejections, which have yet to show signs of returning to the lows of 2023-24.
