First look: Ryder data offers mixed signals on strength of used vehicle market

Q4 rate of price decline for trucks down significantly from a year ago

A first look at Ryder earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024. (Photo: Jim Allen\FreightWaves)
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Key Takeaways:

Ryder System’s data on used car sales showed a significant change year on year, according to the company’s fourth-quarter earnings released Wednesday morning. That Ryder data is considered a leading indicator of the strength of the used vehicle market. The company only sold 4,700 vehicles during the quarter, compared to 7,200 a year ago. Third-quarter sales also were 4,700 units.

The used vehicle price obtained by Ryder (NYSE: R) was down 13% for tractors and 12% for trucks year on year. However, a year ago, the rate of price decline from 2023 was 39% for tractors and 33% for trucks.

The 13% year-on-year decline for tractors was an improvement from the third quarter, when the decline was 22%. For trucks, the third-quarter decline year on year was 19%. Ryder also said unit sales out of the Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) segment were down 3% for trucks and 2% for tractors sequentially from the third quarter. 

There was a drop in volume for rental demand across most Ryder divisions. SelectCare, a lease contract under the core FMS segment, had 44,900 vehicles under contract compared to 51,800 a year earlier. Vehicles under contract with Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) dropped to 13,000 from 13,800 a year ago. Not surprisingly, given the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics in February, vehicles under contract at Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) were 19,100 versus 10,900 a year ago.

FMS revenue was flat year on year. SCS, the company’s contract logistics business, was up 3% year on year. The DTS group was up 39%, reflecting in part the Cardinal acquisition.

For the full year, Ryder reported GAAP earnings of $11.06, up from $8.73 in the prior year. In releasing its first forecast for 2025, the company said it expects GAAP earnings of $12.40-$13.40. Revenue growth is expected to be about 2%.

The earnings call with analysts is set for 11 a.m. EST. The first signals from the equity markets to the earnings were positive, with Ryder stock up about 2% approximately a half-hour after the earnings were released. Ryder stock is up about 35% in the past year.

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John Kingston

John has an almost 40-year career covering commodities, most of the time at S&P Global Platts. He created the Dated Brent benchmark, now the world’s most important crude oil marker. He was Director of Oil, Director of News, the editor in chief of Platts Oilgram News and the “talking head” for Platts on numerous media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business and Canada’s BNN. He covered metals before joining Platts and then spent a year running Platts’ metals business as well. He was awarded the International Association of Energy Economics Award for Excellence in Written Journalism in 2015. In 2010, he won two Corporate Achievement Awards from McGraw-Hill, an extremely rare accomplishment, one for steering coverage of the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster and the other for the launch of a public affairs television show, Platts Energy Week.