FTR, ACT Research report slower Class 8 build rates

In prepared comments on the numbers, Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, said July is historically “the worst month of the year for class 8 orders.” That means that in the seasonal adjustment of the raw data, it is given an adjustment factor of close to 24%, Vieth said.

“Applying that seasonal factor boosts July’s seasonally adjusted intake to 17,500 units, which results in a narrower 3.7% month on month decline,” Vieth said.

He said the Class 8 figures for the month were “at directionally and seasonally expected levels.”

FTR described its figures as “somewhat below seasonal expectations.” More broadly, FTR in its announcement of its estimates said the market for new Class 8 vehicle construction is now “performing slightly below replacement demand levels.” 

The average for 2024 so far is 19,400 net orders per month, according to FTR.

“The decline is unsurprising given the strong order performance in the first five months of the year and the typically weak seasonal order period,” the FTR release said. “After averaging nearly 16,000 units from April to June, orders have slowed to just under 15,000 units in the most recent three months.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, said “the overall picture [is] steady.”

But with a slower pace for new builds, Moyer said “the pressure on OEMs to reduce build rates continues to grow.”

Both companies will publish final data later in the month. 

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