GXO sees stable North American freight demand, cautious on volumes in 2026

GXO reported fourth-quarter results after the market closed on Tuesday. Quarterly revenue rose 7.9% to $3.5 billion, up from $3.25 billion compared to the same year-ago period. 

Adjusted earnings per share was 87 cents in the fourth quarter, compared 83 cents per share, in 2024. 

The results beat Wall Street expectations for fourth quarter earnings of 83 cents per share and revenue of $3.47 billion.

U.S. trends stronger than Europe in Q4

Executives said North American performance outpaced parts of Europe in the fourth quarter.

“In Q4, our trends in North America and the U.S. were stronger than continental Europe and U.K.,” CFO Baris Oren told analysts. “For 2026, it’s too early to call for the entire year. We just take a flat number for prudence … nothing more than that.”

GXO is assuming flat volumes in 2026 in the existing operations across its network, a conservative macro outlook executives said reflects uncertainty around customer demand. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by new business wins rather than a volume rebound. 

The company exited 2025 with $774 million in incremental revenue already secured for 2026 and a global pipeline of $2.5 billion, up from $2.3 billion at year-end, with particular momentum in strategic verticals such as aerospace and defense, life sciences, and technology, including data center infrastructure. 

Re-energizing the U.S. commercial engine

Kelleher said newly appointed North America leader Michael Jacobs, who stepped into the role three months ago, is reallocating resources toward solution design, sales and digital marketing to improve pipeline conversion in the U.S. 

Executives noted that the contract logistics sales cycle typically runs six to nine months, followed by another several months for operational ramp-up, noting that the acceleration in U.S. growth could materialize in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 

“Our guidance for 2026 accurately reflects stepping into that growth based on the sales and startup cycle, and that has us very excited for 2027 as well,” Kelleher said. 

Outsourcing tailwinds despite macro caution

While some analysts pointed to low U.S. inventories and potential restocking as a possible catalyst for higher warehouse throughput, GXO executives said it was too early to call a broad-based rebound and reiterated their cautious volume outlook for 2026. 

Instead, management is prioritizing organic expansion and continued deleveraging, targeting net leverage of about two times EBITDA by the end of the year. 

“The guidance for this year is assumed on flat volume, and as we consider the overall macroeconomic situation and really anticipate how that is going to materialize, we’ve taken a very conservative view there with respect to current customer volumes,” Kelleher said.

“So the lever for this year is really about organic growth, driving top-line.”

Customers facing cost pressures are increasingly turning to third-party providers that can invest in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence at scale — investments many shippers cannot justify independently, executives said. 

Kelleher described the U.S. as the “epicenter of technological innovation” for the company, particularly as it scales its AI-powered GXO IQ warehouse operating system and experiments with humanoid robotics across sites. 

GXO’s fourth quarter key financial results.