• ITVI.USA
    15,442.580
    19.940
    0.1%
  • OTLT.USA
    2.891
    0.002
    0.1%
  • OTRI.USA
    20.850
    -0.110
    -0.5%
  • OTVI.USA
    15,411.420
    23.220
    0.2%
  • TSTOPVRPM.ATLPHL
    2.920
    -0.040
    -1.4%
  • TSTOPVRPM.CHIATL
    3.680
    -0.030
    -0.8%
  • TSTOPVRPM.DALLAX
    1.290
    -0.060
    -4.4%
  • TSTOPVRPM.LAXDAL
    3.620
    -0.020
    -0.5%
  • TSTOPVRPM.PHLCHI
    2.420
    0.100
    4.3%
  • TSTOPVRPM.LAXSEA
    4.170
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    128.000
    2.000
    1.6%
  • ITVI.USA
    15,442.580
    19.940
    0.1%
  • OTLT.USA
    2.891
    0.002
    0.1%
  • OTRI.USA
    20.850
    -0.110
    -0.5%
  • OTVI.USA
    15,411.420
    23.220
    0.2%
  • TSTOPVRPM.ATLPHL
    2.920
    -0.040
    -1.4%
  • TSTOPVRPM.CHIATL
    3.680
    -0.030
    -0.8%
  • TSTOPVRPM.DALLAX
    1.290
    -0.060
    -4.4%
  • TSTOPVRPM.LAXDAL
    3.620
    -0.020
    -0.5%
  • TSTOPVRPM.PHLCHI
    2.420
    0.100
    4.3%
  • TSTOPVRPM.LAXSEA
    4.170
    0.000
    0%
  • WAIT.USA
    128.000
    2.000
    1.6%
Chart of the Week

High costs will limit capacity growth in trucking

Truck price growth is outpacing trucking rate growth

Chart of the Week: 3, 4, and 5 Year Old Used Truck Prices, New Class 8 Orders – USA  SONAR: UT3.USA, UT4.USA, UT5.USA, ORDERS.CL8

Used truck prices have increased by over 50% for 3-year-old models over the past 12 months. With the larger fleets struggling to recruit new drivers to the space, cost barriers will limit the small fleet/owner-operator growth as well, helping to extend the capacity crunch on all levels. 

It is a fairly well-known fact inside the trucking industry that over 90% of the fleets operating in the U.S. have less than 21 trucks. The barriers to entry for starting a trucking company are basically limited to the size of your wallet and your ability to finance a vehicle. This cost barrier has grown sharply over the past year — to a point where many are likely to forego the effort. 

Supply chain issues have ironically plagued trucking OEMs as their own production limitations contribute to the limited supply of vehicles available for transporting goods. Class 8 orders stalled over the summer, not necessarily due to seasonal spending patterns but because of delays in production capabilities, as Alan Adler wrote about multiple times in September. 

With new equipment becoming less available, the larger fleets that normally purchase the majority of these new trucks are holding on to their older vehicles for longer periods of time. Used trucks are the most economical way for smaller fleets and owner-operators to start and grow their businesses, and paying $90K for a truck is dramatically different than spending the $58K they did in July 2020. 

Trucking rates are very high at the moment, but even with expanding margins this price is becoming much harder to overcome. 

Looking at Truckload Carriers Association data that is largely comprised of small and midsize fleets, operating ratios — what percentage of the revenue is spent on moving the freight — are still in the low 90s. In August the members that operate van fleets reported a 93% OR, meaning they made just 7 cents for every dollar of revenue. This does not include interest or tax expenses. 

The average cost of operating a vehicle was around $1.20/mile for a 500-mile run in 2019, according to the TCA and other industry averages. At full utilization, driving an average 448 miles per day and six days per week puts the total annual mileage at 134,400. Without going through an accounting lesson in depreciation, this puts the cost per mile around 11 cents. Raising the cost of a vehicle to $90K increases the cost to nearly 17 cents per mile. 

This may seem like a marginal amount, but assuming all other costs have been stable (they have not been), this increases the OR to a 98%. Trucking spot rates had the bulk of their increase last year and have slowed their pace, while truck prices are now accelerating.  

Truck price growth is outpacing trucking rate growth over the past six months. For certain, this has already deterred a few entrants and inhibited fleet growth. This is also occurring at a time when driver wages are expanding rapidly, eating into carrier margins. While the current cycle appears to still have plenty of fuel behind it, it is not sustainable, although increasing truck prices may contribute to its extension. 

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.

The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new data sets each week and enhancing the client experience.

To request a SONAR demo, click here.

   

Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst

Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.

4 Comments

  1. Does that cost per mile include driver pay? Or is it only equipment, insurance, fuel, etc? $1.20 seems way high if just equipment. Guessing you mean both driver and equipment; at about $.60/mi for both. Plz say!!

  2. Federal Excise Tax (FET) Is a Major contributor and has been totally ignored by the Fed during this crisis!! There has been a push for years to get this ridiculous 12% Tax removed from heavy trucks, parts and Tires for years now but the greedy Fed hasn’t done anything about it. 99% of trucks now have over $20,000 just in FET Tax, It’s TOTALLY ABSURD !!

  3. If a truckload carrier has an O/R of 93 that’s pretty damn good. Most carriers would be happy with a 95. That’s profit we’re talking about here,sure you want more but that comes to a lot of money when you consider gross revenues.

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