Intermodal Hits Annual High (21K+ Containers)

Intermodal volumes are breaking records! Domestic intermodal containers reached a new annual high of over 21,000, driven by significant cost savings and strong annual growth. Discover which lanes offer the biggest intermodal savings and what this trend means for freight conversion from road to rail as we head into Q4.

The 7-day moving average of loaded domestic intermodal containers hit a new annual high of 21,697 on Sunday, Sept. 28, and has remained elevated heading into the final day of the third quarter, according to FreightWaves data. The record reading comes as shippers continue converting freight from over-the-road to rail, drawn by historically wide cost advantages.

The milestone is notable because it layers seasonal tailwinds on top of an already strong baseline. Domestic container volumes typically rise from August into September, but that normal seasonal lift is running on top of roughly 8% year-over-year growth — a combination that Julie Van de Kamp flagged as worth watching closely.

“That combination of the two is really kind of worth noting and continuing to watch,” said Van de Kamp.

Cost savings remain the primary driver of mode conversion. FreightWaves’ Intermodal Contract Savings Index has eased from a peak of more than 33% in mid-August to approximately 30.9% as of Wednesday, but Van de Kamp described that level as “really historically high.” Specific lane opportunities are stark: the Harrisburg-to-Atlanta corridor shows savings of 43%, while outbound California lanes into Ohio offer more than 42% savings compared to current elevated spot rates on the road.

Looking ahead, FreightWaves’ seasonally adjusted moving average — a forward-looking forecast anchored to current trend and historical seasonality — suggests loaded domestic intermodal volumes could grow by another 4% heading into Thanksgiving. Van de Kamp cautioned the projection does not account for economic factors and could shift if demand weakens, service deteriorates, or intermodal rates rise significantly.

Capacity pressure is building. Van de Kamp noted that each additional week of volume growth will tighten available intermodal capacity, strengthening the case for a rate increase in the fourth quarter. Rail service has slowed somewhat over the past year as more freight has moved to the rails, but not enough to deter shippers given the magnitude of available savings.

On the international side, intermodal container volumes are holding steady at 13,620 on the FreightWaves index, down from a high of around 15,000 in July. Van de Kamp attributed the moderation to importers pulling shipments forward earlier in the year, producing a more elongated but somewhat muted peak season rather than a sharp late-summer surge — a pattern consistent with what was seen in over-the-road volumes during that period.

• The 7-day moving average of loaded domestic intermodal containers reached an annual high of 21,697 on Sunday, Sept. 28, up roughly 8% year over year.
• FreightWaves’ Intermodal Contract Savings Index stands at ~30.9%, down from a mid-August peak above 33%, with select lanes like Harrisburg-Atlanta still showing 43% savings over spot truck.
• Seasonally adjusted forecasts point to another 4% volume growth heading into Thanksgiving, though tightening capacity raises the prospect of intermodal rate increases in Q4.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.