Watch Now

Outbound tender rejections fall year-over-year, seasonality still at play

Outbound tender volumes (OTVI.USA) rose by 8.34% week-over-week. Much of this rise can be attributed to the timing of Thanksgiving. Nationally, outbound tender volumes fell 3.01% year-over-year this week. Month-over-month volumes were down 1.68%.

We will be keeping an eye out for the emerging true run-rate of volumes on a year-over-year basis in coming weeks as the volume picture is murkier than emerging, strong rejection rates and new life seen in spot rates as they climb above $1.50 per mile.

Fourteen of the 15 markets FreightWaves tracks were positive on a week-over-week basis. Markets with the largest gains in OTVI.USA were: Indianapolis, Indiana (18.24%); Dallas, Texas (16.87%); and Savannah, Georgia (14.74%). The steepest and only week-over-week drop was Laredo, Texas, which fell 9.19%.


National rejection rates pick up steam in breakout to the upside

National tender rejections (OTRI.USA) are on a sustained tear, finishing up the week at 7.96%. While this is just 2 basis points (bps) above last week’s finish, OTRI.USA has risen 288 bps in the past month. 

OTRI.USA has now broken above the 6% level for three consecutive weeks. This is the first time outbound tender rejections have remained above 6% for consecutive weeks since March 2019. 

On a year-over-year basis, rejections are still down 460 bps from 12.56% last year. On a trending basis, OTRI.USA continues to strengthen, having risen in 13 of the last 16 weeks, with tender rejections rising off of the 3.75% bottom experienced in mid-August. National tender rejections have now moved comfortably above their 60-day moving average by 37.72%.

Year-over-year comparables for national rejection rates are still difficult due to the daunting 2018 numbers when rejections never fell below double digits. As a result, on a year-over-year percentage basis, OTRI.USA is down 37%. As can be seen in the chart below, comparisons start to ease soon though in the January and February 2020 time frame.


Seth Holm

Seth Holm is a Senior Research Analyst for the Freight Intel Group at Freightwaves, which publishes proprietary research on all things transports and logistics. Most recently, Seth spent 9 years as an analyst covering consumer and technology, media and telecom (TMT) stocks at a hedge fund. Prior to that, he was as an analyst at a high net worth wealth advisory firm. Seth is a graduate of the University of Georgia with a major in Finance.