Freight broker RXO said Wednesday that its truckload spot rate index reached a four-year high in the first quarter, with expectations for further increases in the second quarter. Even with only tepid freight demand, capacity attrition stemming from stricter regulatory oversight of the driver pool is pushing rates materially higher.
RXO’s (NYSE: RXO) Curve Report showed TL spot rates were up 16.5% year over year in the first quarter after logging a 5.2% growth rate in the fourth quarter. (The dataset captures linehaul rates, excluding fuel surcharges.) This was the highest growth rate since the 2021 third quarter.
The quarterly outlook calls for the index to record a larger growth rate during the second quarter.
“Q1 is typically the slowest shipping season of the year, yet industry-wide tender rejections were at their highest levels since 2022 and rate volatility outpaced seasonality,” the report said. “That trend continues in Q2, and as normal summer shipping seasonality hits, it isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon.”
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said contract rates were up 2.4% y/y in the first quarter. Elevated spot rates are bleeding through to contractual rate negotiations.
“However, with spot rates consistently outpacing seasonal baselines, shippers are bracing for a highly altered freight environment heading into the busy summer months and the second half of 2026.”
Public carriers raised full-year contract rate expectations during the first-quarter earnings season. Many were expecting low- to mid-single-digit rate increases entering the year, but now believe market dynamics support increases in the mid- to high-single digits. Some carriers also flagged the likelihood of double-digit rate hikes for transactional-oriented customers that played the spot market during the downturn.
J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) said at an investor conference last week that it believes contract rates (non-dedicated) will climb 20% over the next two years as heightened regulation and higher fuel costs purge low-cost operators from the market.
“We’re seeing significant linehaul and contract rate increases, despite muted shipper demand,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “Carriers remain under immense cost pressure, driven by increasing labor expenses, a higher cost of capital, insurance premiums, and, of course, diesel prices. … If there is any uptick in shipping volumes, rates will rise at an even faster pace.”
RXO ups Q2 outlook
A Tuesday update from the company said it was “winning accretive spot opportunities,” and that it expects gross profit per load (TL) to exceed normal seasonal trends, coming in “at least flat” with April. (It previously guided to a decline in gross profit per load during May.)
Spot loads accounted for a higher percentage of RXO’s TL volumes in the first two weeks of May when compared to April. Total TL volumes in April were off approximately 2% y/y, but “outperformed relative to the market.”
“Last week, market conditions tightened even further, exacerbated by CVSA International Roadcheck,” Weisfeld said in the Tuesday update. “RXO stayed close to our customers and won significant spot opportunities, helping to more than offset the squeeze on our contractual book of business.”
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