Slowest Freight Monday: Why Volume is MISSING from the Market

The freight market is experiencing one of its slowest Mondays this year, with experts noting a significant lack of volume. Is this a seasonal blip or a deeper structural shift? We dive into how contract repricing, rising tender lead times, and intermodal’s surge are impacting the trucking industry. What does this mean for capacity and driver availability moving forward?

Freight volumes collapsed to their lowest Monday of the year this week, catching some industry observers off guard even as underlying rate levels held relatively stable. The drop is drawing fresh scrutiny over whether the shortfall reflects a temporary seasonal quirk or a more durable structural shift in how shippers are moving freight.

Ken Adamo, Chief Strategy Officer of Eaze Logistics, said the volume gap is only partly explained by the calendar. Labor Day falls late this year, leaving roughly two more weeks of August before the traditional seasonal trough, but Adamo pointed to a less-discussed dynamic accelerating the pullback. “The contract repricing effort happened so swiftly where shippers wanted to get things settled before peak,” he said, adding that the rapid mini-bid cycle is routing freight away from the spot market and back onto stabilizing routing guides — a trend visible in tender rejection data.

Adamo framed the current market imbalance as roughly 70% a capacity problem and 30% a demand problem. Net motor carrier additions are rising again, new truck orders are up sharply, and he argued those supply-side forces are amplifying the normal post-road-check-week seasonal softness. Tender lead times, meanwhile, have climbed from a historical average of 3.25 days to 3.75 days, a half-day gain that signals shippers are planning further ahead and moving freight more systematically rather than relying on the spot market for last-minute coverage.

Intermodal is absorbing a significant share of that orderly freight flow. Railroad data show intermodal volumes at record levels, but the geography is notable: the surge is concentrated on the eastern side of the country — the Atlanta-to-Chicago and Harrisburg-to-Chicago corridors — rather than the traditional west-to-east lane. Contract intermodal rates show a 34% delta versus truckload, giving shippers a powerful financial incentive to shift modes. Adamo noted that railroads, particularly Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific as they pursue federal merger approval, appear to be holding contract rates steady to quietly accumulate market share without antagonizing shippers or regulators.

“I don’t see a world where you’ve had basically 20 years absent prolonged trucking inflation, because it’s a cyclical cycle and it always kind of resets back to where it started at minimal, minimal accretive jumping-off points. I just find it hard to believe that we don’t find some way to get more drivers into the market,” Adamo said.

The longer-term debate centers on where new capacity will actually come from. Transportation employment has been flat since February, according to reporting by John Kingston. Adamo cited conversations with the largest public carriers, who say they cannot attract drivers even at current pay structures. FMCSA registration data does show a surge in new carrier filings, but analyst Tom Albrecht of Reliance Partners argues those registrations are largely being “banked” by operators anticipating future crackdowns on new MC numbers — not reflecting genuine new capacity entering service.

Even if regulatory pressure keeps a lid on driver supply for two to three years, Adamo said the market is unlikely to absorb sustained double-digit contract rate increases without a political response — whether that means lowering the driving age to 18, adjusting hours-of-service rules, or other policy levers. For now, he said the market is unambiguously signaling a need for more trucks and drivers, and the critical question is not whether a cycle turn is coming, but when.

• This week marked the slowest freight Monday of the year, with Eaze Logistics CSO Ken Adamo attributing the volume gap roughly 70% to excess capacity and 30% to weak demand.
• Rapid contract mini-bids ahead of peak season are pulling freight off the spot market and onto routing guides, while tender lead times have risen from 3.25 to 3.75 days as shippers plan further in advance.
• Intermodal volumes are at record highs with a 34% rate delta versus truckload, driven by eastern U.S. lanes from Atlanta and Harrisburg to Chicago, as railroads hold contract rates steady amid pending merger reviews.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.