Tariffs, enforcement crackdowns, cargo crime and nearshoring pressures reshaped cross-border commerce
U.S.–Mexico trade in 2025 was defined less by steady growth and more by policy whiplash, heightened enforcement and mounting security risks, even as Mexico retained its position as the United States’ largest trading partner.
This year, U.S.–Mexico trade proved resilient — but far from stable. Tariffs, enforcement and security risks replaced pure growth narratives, forcing companies to rethink cross-border strategies in real time.
As 2026 approaches, the lessons of this year point toward a more complex, compliance-driven and risk-aware era for North American trade.
Here are the five biggest U.S.–Mexico trade stories of 2025.
1. Tariffs return as a central trade weapon
Tariffs re-emerged as the dominant policy lever shaping U.S.–Mexico trade this year. The Trump administration imposed new and expanded duties on select Mexican imports — including autos, auto parts, steel, aluminum and heavy-duty trucks — citing national security and trade enforcement concerns.
While many goods remain covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the renewed tariff threats created uncertainty for manufacturers and logistics providers that had relied on nearshoring to reduce exposure to China-related duties.
The impact rippled through ports, border crossings and contract negotiations, forcing shippers to reassess sourcing strategies and inventory timing as tariff risk re-entered the pricing equation.
2. Customs enforcement and compliance pressure intensify
Trade compliance became a front-line issue in 2025 as U.S. authorities ramped up enforcement against customs fraud, undervaluation and country-of-origin misrepresentation tied to Mexico-linked supply chains.
The U.S. Department of Justice and Customs and Border Protection increased scrutiny of importer practices, particularly around tariff engineering and transshipment risks. Industry groups warned that documentation errors — once treated as routine compliance issues — now carry heightened legal and financial exposure.
For logistics providers and shippers alike, compliance investments shifted from optional to essential, reshaping broker relationships and internal trade governance.
3. Cargo theft escalates into a trade risk
Cargo theft surged along U.S.–Mexico corridors in 2025, evolving from a security nuisance into a systemic trade risk. Organized theft rings targeted electronics, consumer goods and auto parts, with losses affecting both Mexican manufacturing zones and U.S. distribution hubs.
The rise in theft increased insurance costs, disrupted just-in-time manufacturing flows and forced carriers to redesign routing and security protocols. For some shippers, cargo crime became a deciding factor in lane selection and facility placement — complicating the nearshoring narrative.
4. Nearshoring collides with infrastructure limits
Mexico’s manufacturing boom continued in 2025, driven by nearshoring demand from U.S. companies seeking regional supply chain resilience. But the growth exposed infrastructure bottlenecks at border crossings, highways and rail terminals.
Congestion at key gateways — especially in Texas — intensified pressure on customs facilities and cross-border trucking capacity. The Port of Laredo once again ranked among the top U.S. trade gateways, underscoring the strategic importance — and vulnerability — of land ports in North American commerce.
Calls for expanded border infrastructure and streamlined inspection processes grew louder as volumes pushed against capacity constraints.
5. USMCA review looms over 2026
While not yet triggering formal renegotiation, 2025 set the stage for a pivotal USMCA review cycle in 2026. Trade tensions, unilateral tariffs and disputes over enforcement raised questions about how smoothly the trilateral agreement will function going forward.
Business groups on both sides of the border warned that persistent policy uncertainty could chill investment decisions, even as Mexico remains central to U.S. manufacturing strategy. The coming review has emerged as a focal point for shippers, carriers and policymakers planning long-term North American supply chain investments.
