Truckload Spot Rates Keep Rising, But Demand Isn’t… Why?

Truckload spot rates keep rising, but demand isn’t the real story. Accepted tender volumes are falling, rejection rates have cooled, and yet spot and contract rates are still moving up. In this market update, we break down the mixed truckload signals: softer tenders, higher fuel, tighter capacity, barriers to entry for new carriers, and why that combination could keep rates firm longer than many expected. #TruckloadMarket #SpotRates #FreightMarket

Dry van spot rates including fuel reached $3.55 per mile as of early October, up more than 10% from late August and roughly 50% above year-ago levels — yet the driver is not a surge in freight demand. Instead, rising diesel costs and structural capacity tightness are doing the heavy lifting, according to Julie Van de Kamp.

The fuel component is stark. The FreightWaves DTS diesel truck stop price hit $6.39 and has climbed steadily since July. In just the past month, diesel is up nearly 9.9% while all-in spot rates on the FreightWaves NTI index rose about 4.1%, suggesting fuel is the dominant near-term force on shipper-facing pricing.

Demand indicators are actually softening. Accepted tender volumes have fallen nearly 3% over the past week and are down about 9% since mid-September — though Van de Kamp noted that the mid-September baseline was inflated by a post-Labor Day bump. Tender volumes are also down 20% from their June peak. Year over year, accepted tender volumes are tracking below the prior three years.

“We are going to continue to see tighter markets based on available capacity, not necessarily based on demand,” said Van de Kamp.

Rejection rates tell a similar story of a market that is firm but not frenzied. Outright rejections peaked at 14.67% in mid-September before easing to about 13.79%, a level Van de Kamp characterized as still consistent with a healthy, non-loose market. Van de Kamp said new carrier operating authority filings are not a reliable signal of incoming capacity, arguing applicants are likely securing MC and DOT numbers now to age them for future use rather than putting trucks on the road immediately.

Structural barriers are limiting how quickly capacity can respond to rate signals. Fewer CDL schools, difficulty recruiting and retaining qualified drivers, and increasing regulatory burdens are raising the cost and complexity of adding trucks. Van de Kamp noted that large carriers are prioritizing yield and utilization over fleet growth, while smaller entrants face an increasingly difficult path to securing freight. “The barriers of entry for adding capacity have just continued to be increased and regulation is making that harder,” she said.

Contract rates are also moving higher. The van contract rate per mile initial reporting index — VCRPM1 — reached 270 on September 17th, its highest reading since 2022, when it stood at 269. Van de Kamp said rate increases in both the spot and contract markets are also being driven by shipper willingness to pay more for driver quality, safety performance, and fraud risk mitigation — factors that can push rates up independently of load volume. She expects spot rates to hold firm and likely continue rising into the months ahead.

• Dry van spot rates hit $3.55/mile, up 10%+ since late August and ~50% year over year, with diesel up 9.9% in a month as the primary catalyst.
• Tender volumes are down 20% from June’s peak and accepted tenders are below the prior three years, signaling demand is not driving the rate rally.
• Van contract rates reached 270 on Sept. 17 — their highest level since 2022 — as structural capacity barriers, not demand, keep the market tight.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.