The ‘ingenious strategy’ behind most truckers’ least favorite week of the year: International Roadcheck

International Roadcheck Week is hardly the sexiest topic in trucking, but it is a darn-tootin’ important one. Inspectors in the U.S. and Canada halt tens of thousands of trucks for vehicle inspections for a few days every summer or early fall. They remove thousands of trucks and drivers from the road; in 2021, 16.5% of inspected vehicles were put out of service along with 5.3% of drivers.

It’s uncommon for truck drivers to actually get their vehicles inspected at random during most of the year. To avoid International Roadcheck Week, many truckers simply don’t drive during that period of time — which, presumably, means more unsafe vehicles and drivers on the road outside of the inspection blitz. It’s a question that ate at Andrew Balthrop, a research associate at the University of Arkansas Sam M. Walton College of Business.

Around 5% fewer one-person trucking companies are active during International Roadcheck Week. But Balthrop and his fellow researcher, Alex Scott of the University of Tennessee, found a major upside to the inspection blitz — even with all the folks who avoid it. According to their working paper published in March 2021, vehicles are safer a month before and after the inspection period. There’s a 1.8% reduction of vehicle violations, according to Balthrop and Scott’s analysis. Surprise inspection blitzes don’t result in the same uptick of compliance.

I caught up with Balthrop about his research last week at FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain conference, and we chatted again on the phone this week about his findings on International Roadcheck Week.

Enjoy a bonus MODES and a lightly edited transcription of our phone interview:

FREIGHTWAVES: For our readers who are not aware of what Roadcheck Week actually is, can you explain a little bit about what it and why it is important to drivers and companies?

BALTHROP: “The International Roadcheck is part of an alliance between the inspectors in Canada and the ones in Mexico and the U.S. to have a unified framework for making sure trucks are safe to operate. That should make it easier to go across borders when you have this kind of unified structure.

“In the U.S., one of these CVSA inspection blitzes is the International Roadcheck that happens for three days in the summer. Usually it’s a Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And usually it’s the first week in June.

“And in it, they focus on Level One inspections, the North American Standard Inspection where they inspect the driver records, the hours of service, the licensure and I believe medical records as well. Then they inspect the truck. It’s an in-depth inspection where the inspector will actually crawl under the truck to look at various things. And these inspections, from the data that I’ve seen, take about a half an hour on average.

“During the Roadcheck Week, they’ll do about 60,000 inspections, so 20,000 a day. They’re going to pull over a lot of trucks, and this can cause a little bit of congestion at the weigh stations and the roadside inspections localities as the inspectors are doing these inspections.”

Roadcheck Week doesn’t catch all truck drivers, but it has a long-lasting benefit to safety

FREIGHTWAVES: So, can most drivers kind of expect to be pulled over? How likely is that?

BALTHROP: “There’s 1 million or 3 million trucks on the road, somewhere around there on any given day. With 20,000 inspections, most drivers still will not get inspected, but there’s going to be a higher proportion of drivers inspected.

“You’re more likely to get inspected on these days. If you don’t have a recent inspection on your record, or if you have a bad recent inspection on your record, you’re more likely to be pulled over on these days.”

FREIGHTWAVES: Your research focused on that it’s just unusual that this inspection is announced, that it’s planned. We were talking before about how normally, if you’re trying to assure quality or compliance, you would not announce an inspection in advance. It would be more of a surprise-type situation.

Can you walk us through why that’s so unusual, or what’s the rationale that you see behind announcing it in advance?

BALTHROP: “It is unusual, and on the surface, it doesn’t make much sense, but it turns out to be kind of an ingenious strategy. So I’ll walk through it here.

“Over the course of a year, there’ll be 2 million inspections of 3 or 4 million trucks out there. The average rate of inspections is pretty low. It’s not uncommon for truckers to go years without having an inspection. With this low inspection intensity, the FMCSA has sort of a problem of, how does it get anybody to abide by the regulations?

“I’m a jaded economist, and I don’t worry or consider too much ethics and morality and all that kind of stuff. It comes down to incentives for drivers to follow these inspections. The incentives do guide behavior. So, how could the FMCSA incentivize drivers to follow these regulations more closely and adhere to the standards?

“They do this by announcing the blitz. This does two things. On one side, it allows everybody to prepare in advance. There’s a bunch of anecdotal evidence out there that people do prepare for these blitzes in advance. They will have their trucks inspected beforehand for any problems. They’ll time maintenance and upkeep in advance to make sure that their vehicles are in order. “They’ll be a little bit more cognizant of the driver-side regulations. One thing we notice in our study is that hours-of-service violations really drop during these extensions, because people see them coming. They don’t fudge the books in any way.”

Owner-operators can evade Roadcheck Week. Big carriers, not so much.

BALTHROP: “The issue with the announcement, on the flip side, is that it allows people to just dodge the inspection entirely. For a long time, people have talked about how owner-operators and smaller carriers time their vacations for this particular time. They could do this for a couple reasons. To avoid the hassle is a nice way to put it, but it also allows you to be noncompliant to avoid the high-intensity inspections.

“You have this balance here that on one side you get the behavior you want with people complying with regulations. That’s the behavior the FMCSA wants. But on the flip side, you get a bunch of people that are kind of outright dodging inspections.

“When you compare these two things on balance, the policy is actually pretty effective because you get a lot of people focused on maintaining their trucks and obeying the rules during that particular week. Especially with the vehicle maintenance stuff, that lasts a long time.

“In our research, we saw that vehicle violations, a month before and up to a month afterwards, is when you still notice your vehicle violations. That trucks are kind of better maintained around these blitzes.

“The ingenious aspect of it is that the FMCSA, by concentrating their inspection resources all at one time and announcing it, they’re making it clear that they’re serious about enforcing these regulations and everybody prepares for it. For the number of inspections that are happening, you get fewer tickets than you would have otherwise expected.

“The FMCSA, they’re putting people through a little bit of a hassle, but they’re not having to write a bunch of tickets to get people to comply. They’re not really punishing a whole bunch of people because, by making this apparent that this is going to happen, people comply and the FMCSA gets what they want essentially without having to come down on carriers too hard.”

A convenient time for a vacation, indeed

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, interesting. And how does this pattern of shutting down, how does that compare for an owner-operator versus a driver for a big fleet?

BALTHROP: “If you’re a motor carrier with thousands of power units, you can’t just pack up and not do business on a particular day. They just don’t have that option. So they get inspected at a higher intensity, and you see the larger carriers kind of more focused on making sure that they’re prepared for these inspections. With so many inspections, the larger carriers are going to be inspected at higher rates. You can really damage your reputation if your equipment isn’t in order on this particular day.

“Versus the smaller carriers, especially if you’re talking about a single-vehicle fleet, an owner-operator type, it is not that difficult to just not work for those three days. And so you see a lot about that.

“In terms of what the roadway composition looks like, if we look at inspection data and relative to a typical day with the usual inspections, on these Roadcheck days, you have about 5% fewer owner-operators on the road than you otherwise would expect.”

FREIGHTWAVES: Wow. And when you say owner-operators, you also mean just like fleets with just —

BALTHROP: “One-vehicle fleets.”

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, that’s interesting.

BALTHROP: “You know, you see a little bit of effect with the smaller fleets, below six vehicles, but it basically disappears by the time you get to a hundred vehicles.

“This effect is being driven by smaller carriers staying off the road in terms of avoidance. You see this goes also how you would expect; it’s also older vehicles that stay off the road. This is correlated with carrier size. The larger carriers use newer vehicles and owner-operators tend to use some of the older vehicles. But it’s particularly the older vehicles that are off the road.

“This makes intuitive sense. Older vehicles are more costly to keep compliant. Maintenance is more costly, and they’ve been around longer so there’s time for more stuff to have broken essentially.

How a truck driver gets stopped for inspection

FREIGHTWAVES: Can you explain a little bit more, the idea of having this inspection history and why it would benefit a larger or small carrier?

BALTHROP: “Getting flagged for inspection is sort of random, but not totally. If somebody notices something obviously wrong with your truck, that’s ground for a more in-depth inspection. Or if you get pulled over for some other reason, this can be grounds for inspection of some type.

“But there’s also the inspection selection service. The computer program that is random, that it randomly flags people in for inspection, but it’s based on your inspection history.

“So if your firm hasn’t been inspected recently, or if your carrier doesn’t have a very dense inspection history, you’ll be more likely to trigger that system to pull you in and have you inspected. If you have a dense inspection history, you’re less likely to get inspected.”

FREIGHTWAVES: So how do you get pulled over for inspection? As a person who only drives a passenger car, my main interaction with being pulled over is, I’m driving down the freeway or wherever, and I get stopped by the police. How does it work for a truck driver? How does getting pulled over or inspected work in that way?

BALTHROP: “The law is that you cannot pass a weigh station without pulling in and getting weighed. At that point they may flag you to be inspected. Now, in the past decade or two, there’s been a bunch of electronic devices that are installed in cabs. You may have heard of PrePass or Drivewise. This allows you to pass weigh stations.

“I don’t have data on how many trucks have the in-cab devices. But from a trucking perspective, they’re so convenient that you don’t have to stop every time you cross a state line. I think the vast, overwhelming majority of trucks have some sort of one of these electronic devices. The DOT inspectors at these roadside inspection points have a dial they can twist essentially about how many people they want to inspect.

“So during the roadcheck inspection week, they’ll crank that dial all the way up and pull everybody over. And if they get too backed up, they might crank it back down a little bit and so on.”

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, interesting. It reminds me of a highly sophisticated E‑ZPass.

A $10 million-plus expense to trucking companies every year … but it’s worth it if just one fatal crash is avoided

FREIGHTWAVES: Zooming out, when we hear about large truck crashes, something like a vehicle maintenance issue is not really the most sexy explanation. But just looking at the FMCSA data, in 29% of all truck crashes, a major factor is brake problems. So it seems like a lot of the truck crashes on the road are caused by vehicle maintenance, versus something like the driver using illegal drugs or some other sort of more dramatic explanation. Can you speak a little bit to why this sort of vehicle maintenance is important for safety in preventing large crashes?

BALTHROP: “We did a little bit of a back-of-the-envelope cost benefit analysis of this. Let me try and make sure I remember it clearly, but we have it in the paper that the cost of this on one side is that you have the compliance costs the firms are undertaking, and then you have to add to that the delay costs from doing this, and then the cost of the inspection itself, having to pay federal inspectors to do this.

“On the benefit side, it reduces crashes. So when we add up, just looking at the cost of what an inspection is, we don’t have a good idea of how to measure the compliance cost. It’d be fun to measure the delay cost, but I don’t have good enough price data on that to get at that cost.

“But if you look at what the cost of an inspection is, it is something like $100 or $120 is what you would pay to have one of these inspections done privately. A lot of people do this in the run-up to inspections, and have it done privately so that you can fix whatever the problems are and be sure that you would pass the FMCSA inspection.

“With that $120 figure, if you aggregate that up to 60,000 inspections or whatever, and you take that in comparison, I’m going to give you a bad figure here, it’s on the order of $10 million. That is about the value of a statistical human life. Looking at this economically, it’s worthwhile if it saves one human life. If you identify just one faulty brake system that would’ve resulted in an accident, you’re getting some value out of the program.

“When you add those other costs in there, we’re going to need to save a couple of lives, but in terms of cost benefit analysis with this kind of stuff, we’re usually looking at orders of magnitude differences in cost and benefits to say something for sure.

“If you can save just a couple lives, this program will pay for itself.”

Time to start inspecting in the winter

FREIGHTWAVES: Then one last question: Is there any rationale for this program happening in the summer?

BALTHROP: “I think part of it is that for the inspectors this gets much harder and much more miserable to do in winter conditions.”

FREIGHTWAVES: That makes sense.

BALTHROP: “Inspectors are less productive. One of the things that we talk about in the paper, that they have in addition to the International Roadcheck, is that they have Brake Week where they focus a little bit more on brake inspections. You have Operation Safe Driver a little bit later on in the summer, usually in September, where it’s a little bit more focused on passenger vehicles and how they drive around these trucks.

“But there’s not one in the winter time. There’s an unannounced brake check that usually happens in May, a surprise inspection that’s just one day. But you’re right in pointing out that it might be worthwhile having one of these in the wintertime. You have this periodic high-intensity inspection that kind of incentivizes everybody to be compliant through the summer.

“But there’s nothing in the winter, so that’s an area. But if I was managing the FMCSA, that would be one of the first questions I ask, ‘Why don’t we have one of these in the wintertime?’”

FREIGHTWAVES: That makes sense. Maybe they can do it in the South or something. Maybe a Miami January inspection …

That’s it for this special bonus MODES. Subscribe here if you’re not already receiving MODES in your inbox every Thursday. Email the reporter at rpremack@www.freightwaves.com with your own tales on International Roadcheck Week or any other trucking topics.

Why the Northeast is quietly running out of diesel

The nozzle of a diesel fuel pump is inserted into the tank of a commercial truck as its driver looks on the bankground.

The East Coast of the U.S. is reporting its lowest seasonal diesel inventory on record. And some trucking companies appear spooked.

The East Coast typically stores around 62 million barrels of diesel during the month of May, according to Department of Energy data. But as of last Friday, that region of the U.S. is reporting under 52 million barrels.

The sharp increase of diesel prices has been a major stressor in America’s $800 billion trucking industry since the beginning of 2022. According to DOE figures, the price per gallon of diesel has reached record highs — a whopping $5.62 per gallon. It’s even higher on the East Coast at $5.90, up 63% from the beginning of this year.

When relief is coming isn’t yet clear, and experts say higher prices are the only way to attract more diesel into the Northeast.

“I wish I had some good news for the Northeast, but it’s bedlam,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told FreightWaves.

2022 has seen record-setting diesel prices. (SONAR)

Everyday Americans don’t fill up their cars with diesel, but the fuel powers our nation’s agriculture, industrial and transportation networks. More expensive diesel means the price of everything is liable to increase. Trucks, trains, barges and the like consumed about 122 million gallons of diesel per day in 2020.

Patrick DeHaan, a vice president of communications at fuel price site GasBuddy, reported that retail truck stops are hauling fuel from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, calling it “extraordinary.” We’ve also seen anecdotal reports from truck drivers posting company memos:

pic.twitter.com/yFYyjzYMWE
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022

#FuelShortage #DieselShortage #SupplyChainCrisis pic.twitter.com/zVmXlshXN0
— Don Ricardo 👑 🇺🇸 🇩🇴 (@NjPier) May 5, 2022

Pilot Flying J and Love’s, two of America’s largest truck stops, told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that they were not planning to restrict diesel purchases, but were monitoring low diesel inventory.

Not unlike every other supply chain crunch we’ve seen in the past few years, the cause of the Northeast’s diesel shortage is multifaceted. A yearslong degradation of refineries is rubbing against the Gulf Coast preferring to ship its oil to Europe and Latin America.

Here’s a breakdown:

1. The East Coast has lost half of its refineries.

As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote on May 4 (emphasis ours):

In the past 15 years, the number of refineries on the U.S. East Coast has halved to just seven. The closures have reduced the region’s oil processing capacity to just 818,000 barrels per day, down from 1.64 million barrels per day in 2009. Regional oil demand, however, is stronger.

Rory Johnston, a managing director at Toronto-based research firm Price Street and writer of the newsletter Commodity Context, told FreightWaves that refining is a “thankless industry,” with intense regulations that have limited the opening of new refineries. The Great Recession of 2008 led to several East Coast refineries shuttering, but there have been more recent shutdowns too. One major Philadelphia refinery shuttered in 2019 after a giant fire (and it already had declared bankruptcy), and another refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020.

Billionaire John Catsimatidis owns a small oil refinery in the US East Coast and several hundred gas stations from Pennsylvania to New York:

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see diesel being rationed on the East Coast this summer.” #OOTT #DieselCrisis https://t.co/9g1e5UIf20
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 11, 2022

2. It’s a financial risk to bring diesel to the Northeast.

The Northeast has increasingly relied on diesel from the Gulf region. Much of that diesel travels to the Northeast through the famous and much-adored Colonial Pipeline. You may remember the 5,500-mile pipeline from last year, when a ransomware attack shuttered it for nearly a week!

It takes 18 days for oil to travel on the Colonial Pipeline from its source in Houston to New York City (or, more specifically, Linden, New Jersey), Kloza said.

That’s a long enough time to prioritize Colonial pipelines financially risky for traders — or, as Kloza said, “incredibly dangerous” — thanks to a concept called “backwardation.”

Backwardation refers to the market condition in which the spot price of a commodity like diesel is higher than its futures price. It’s only gotten stronger over time in the diesel market, Kloza said. So, a company could send off a shipment of diesel and find that it dropped by $1 per gallon in the time the diesel traveled from the Gulf Coast to New York — er, New Jersey. That could mean hundreds of thousands or more in lost profits, so traders often avoid such a fate.

“We’re not in an era where there are any U.S. refiners or big U.S. oil companies who would ‘take one for the team’ and bring cargo in where it’s needed,” Kloza said.

The desperation is showing in New England and the mid-Atlantic regions. New England diesel retail prices are up 75% from the beginning of 2022, per DOE data. In the mid-Atlantic, diesel is up 67%.

It’s not worth the risk, even amid ultra-high prices. As FreightWaves’ Kingston reported last week, the spread between a gallon of diesel in the Gulf Coast and its New York harbor price is usually a few cents. Last week, that swung up to 66 cents.

But that uptick still isn’t justifying moving oil to the Northeast — particularly when traders can make so much more money selling diesel abroad.

3. Of course, we can blame COVID and the crisis in Ukraine.

The catalyst for this diesel shortage, of course, is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine — particularly Europe’s desperation for diesel after weaning off Russian molecules.

As CNBC reported in March, Europe is a net importer of diesel. Europe consumed some 6.8 million barrels of diesel each day in 2019; Russia exported some 600,000 barrels per day of that. Today, Europe has only eliminated one-third of its Russian diesel, so prices are expected to continue to climb amid that transition. Latin America, too, has been clammoring for U.S. diesel.

The Gulf Coast has been happy to provide such diesel, amid “insane” prices for diesel abroad, said Johnston. Waterborne exports of diesel from the U.S. Gulf Coast hit record highs last month, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. (The records only date back to 2016.)

Naturally, COVID is also to blame for the Northeast’s run on diesel. Those refineries still retained on the East Coast scaled back during the pandemic due to staffing issues. It takes six months to a year to reignite refineries that were previously shuttered, Kloza said.

The ‘everything shortage’ endures

It’s been a tale as old as, well, last year. An industry is quietly hampered by supply issues for years, or even decades, and COVID pulls back the curtains on its unsteady foundation. It’s particularly jarring for commodities we never thought about before, like shipping containers or pallets, but that quietly underpinned our livelihood all along.

Recall the Great Lumber Shortage of 2020? Big Lumber had unusually low stockpiles of wood by the summer of 2020, thanks to a vicious 2019 in the lumber industry shuttering sawmills and the spring of 2020 sparking staffing issues. (There was also a nasty beetle infestation.) Those in lumber expected the pandemic to slow the economy, not ignite online shopping, construction and housing mania. It meant lumber went from around $350 per thousand board feet pre-pandemic to a crushing $1,515 by the spring of 2021. The lumber price roller coaster persists today.

In diesel, there’s no beetle infestation, but there are plenty of other headaches. It all means higher fuel prices on the East Coast, particularly the Northeast, to lure molecules from the Gulf Coast. And, down the line, probably more expensive stuff for you.

Do you work in the trucking industry? Do you want to say that you hate or love MODES? Are you simply wanting to chitchat? Email the author at rpremack@www.freightwaves.com, and don’t forget to subscribe to MODES.

Updated on May 13 with the latest comments from truck stops.

Exclusive: Central Freight Lines to shut down after 96 years

Nearly, 2,100 employees will be laid off right before Christmas. Central Freight Lines is the largest trucking company to close since Celadon ceased operations in 2019.

Waco, Texas-based Central Freight Lines has notified drivers, employees and customers that the less-than-truckload carrier plans to wind down operations on Monday after 96 years, the company’s president told FreightWaves on Saturday.

“It’s just horrible,” said CFL President Bruce Kalem.

A source close to CFL told FreightWaves that CFL had “too much debt and too many unpaid bills” to continue operating, despite exploring all available options to keep its doors open.

Kalem agreed.

“Years of operating losses and struggles for many years sapped our liquidity, and we had no other place to go at this point,” Kalem told FreightWaves. “Nobody is going to make money on this closing, nobody.”

Central Freight will cease picking up new shipments effective Monday and expects to deliver substantially all freight in its system by Dec. 20, according to a company statement.

A source familiar with the company said he is unsure whether CFL will file Chapter 7 or “liquidate outside of bankruptcy,” but that the LTL carrier has no plans to reorganize.

The company reshuffled its executive team nearly a year ago in an effort to stay afloat, including adding the company’s owner, Jerry Moyes, as CFL’s interim president and chief executive officer. Moyes remained CEO after Kalem was elevated to president in July.

“I think it was surprising that there wasn’t a buyer for the entire company, but buyers were interested in certain pieces but not in the whole thing,” the source, who didn’t want to be identified, told FreightWaves. “Part of it could have been that just the network was so expansive that there was too much overlap with some of the buyers that they didn’t need locations or employees in the places where they already had strong operations.”

Third-party logistics provider GlobalTranz notified its customers that it had removed CFL as “a blanket and CSP carrier option immediately, to prevent any new bookings,” multiple sources told FreightWaves on Saturday.

CFL, which has over 2,100 employees, including 1,325 drivers, and 1,600 power units, is in discussions with “key customers and vendors and expects sufficient liquidity to complete deliveries over the next week in an orderly manner,” a CFL spokesperson said. Approximately 820 employees are based at the company headquarters in Waco.

Despite diligent efforts, CFL “was unable to gain commitments to fund ongoing operations, find a buyer of the entire business or fund a Chapter 11 reorganization,” another source familiar with the company told FreightWaves.

Kalem said the company had 65 terminals prior to its decision to shutter operations.

FreightWaves received a tip from a source nearly two weeks ago that CFL wasn’t renewing its East Coast terminal leases but was unable to confirm the information with CFL executives.

Another source told FreightWaves that some of the LTL carrier’s West Coast terminals had been sold recently, but that no reason was given for the transactions.

At that time, Kalem said the company was “working to find alternatives” and couldn’t speak because of nondisclosure agreements. He said executives at CFL, including Moyes, were trying to do everything to “save the company.”

“Jerry [Moyes] pumped a lot of money into the company, but it just wasn’t enough,” Kalem said.

Kalem said he’s aware that a large carrier is interested in hiring many of CFL’s drivers but isn’t able to name names at this point.

“Central Freight is in negotiations to sell a substantial portion of its equipment,” the company said in a statement. “Additionally, Central Freight is coordinating with other regional LTL carriers to afford its employees opportunities to apply for other LTL jobs in their area.”

As of late Saturday night, Kalem said fuel cards are working and drivers will be paid for freight they’ve hauled for the LTL carrier until all freight is delivered by the Dec. 20 target date.

“I’m going to work feverishly with the time I have left to get these good people jobs — I owe it to them,” Kalem told FreightWaves. “We are going to pay our drivers — that’s why we had to close it like we’re doing now. We are going to deliver all of the freight that’s in our system by next week, and we believe we can do that.”

During the outset of the pandemic, Central Freight Lines was one of four trucking-related companies that received the maximum award of $10 million through the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). This occurred around the time that CFL drivers and employees were forced to take pay cuts, a move that didn’t go over well with drivers.

“It all went to payroll,” Kalem said about the PPP funds. “Yes, our employees and drivers did take a pay cut over the past few years, and we gave most of it back, even raised pay over the past several months, but it just wasn’t enough to attract drivers.”

FreightWaves staffers Todd Maiden, Timothy Dooner and JP Hampstead contributed to this report.

Watch: Central Freight Lines’ impact on the LTL market

FreightWaves CEO and founder Craig Fuller reacts to the Central Freight Lines news:

“With Central struggling for many years and unable to reach profitability, it makes sense that they would want to liquidate while equipment and real estate are fetching record prices.”

Central Freight Lines statement

Here is the statement given by Central Freight Lines to FreightWaves late Saturday after reports surfaced of its impending closure:

“We make this announcement with a heavy heart and extreme regret that the Company cannot continue after nearly 100 years in operation. We would like to thank our outstanding workforce for persevering and for professionally completing the wind-down while supporting each other. Additionally, we thank our customers, vendors, equipment providers, and other stakeholders for their loyalty and support.

“The Company explored all available options to keep operations going. However, operating losses sapped all remaining sources of liquidity, and the Company’s liabilities far exceed its assets, all of which are subject to liens in favor of multiple creditors. Despite diligent efforts, the Company was unable to gain commitments to fund ongoing operations, find a buyer of the entire business, or fund a Chapter 11 reorganization. Given its limited remaining resources, the Company concluded that the best alternative was a safe and orderly wind-down. As we complete the wind-down process, our primary goal will be to offer the smoothest possible transition for all stakeholders while maximizing the amount available to apply toward the Company’s obligations.

“Central Freight is in negotiations to sell a substantial portion of its equipment. Additionally, Central Freight is coordinating with other regional LTL carriers to afford its employees opportunities to apply for other LTL jobs in their area. Discussions are ongoing and no purchase of assets or offer of employment is guaranteed.”

Brief history of Central Freight Lines

1925	Founded in Waco, Texas, by Woody Callan Sr.
1927	Institutes regular routes in Texas between Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin.
1938	Dallas facility opens as world’s largest freight facility.
1991	Receives 48-state interstate operating authority, expands into Oklahoma.
1993	Joins Roadway Regional Group and begins service in Louisiana.
1994	Expands into Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Mississippi.
1995	Consolidation of Central, Coles, Spartan and Viking Freight Systems into Viking Freight Inc. is announced. Central’s Waco corporate HQ starts closure.
1996	Becomes the Southwestern Division of Viking Freight Inc.
1997	Investment group led by senior Central management purchases assets of former CFL from Viking Freight and reopens as a new Central Freight Lines.
1999	Expands into California and Nevada.
2009	CFL Network provides service to Idaho, Utah, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
2013	Acquires Circle Delivery of Tennessee.
2014	Acquires DTI, a Georgia LTL carrier.
2017	Acquires Wilson; new division created with an increase of 80 terminals.
2020	Wins Carrier of the Year from GlobalTranz. Acquires Volunteer Express Inc. of Dresden, Tennessee.

Source: Central Freight Lines

Warehouse cramming is about to begin — Freightonomics

nVision Global, is a leading Global Freight Audit, Supply Chain Management Services company offering enterprise-wide supply chain solutions. With over 4,000 global business “Partners”, nVision Global not only provides prompt, accurate Freight Audit Solutions, but also providing industry-leading Supply Chain Information Management solutions and services necessary to help its clients maximize efficiencies within their supply chain. To learn more, visit www.nvisionglobal.com

Warehouse space is at a premium right now and with peak season right around the corner, shippers are starting to scramble for space.

Zach Strickland and Anthony Smith look into what shippers are doing to prepare for the end-of-year crunch. They welcome Zac Rogers from Colorado State University to the show to talk through the industry tightness.

The three also talk about the latest Logistics Managers Index results and what they mean for the fourth quarter of 2021.

You can find more Freightonomics episodes and recaps for all our live podcasts here.

Seasonality pushing rejections and rates higher ahead of the Fourth

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 75 (Carriers)

Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 70 (Carriers)

Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 70 (Carriers)

The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for rates between shippers and carriers.

The Pricing Power Index is based on the following indicators:

Load volumes: Absolute levels positive for carriers, momentum neutral

The Outbound Tender Volume Index at 15,980 is nominally higher now than basically at any point in the past 12 months with the exception of the week prior to Thanksgiving/Black Friday last year. OTVI captures all electronic tenders, including rejected ones, so when accounting for the rejection rate, we can get an even more accurate look at volumes.

OTVI rose through the back half of May into the national holiday and has risen even further since. Throughout the back half of May and into the middle of June, tender rejections declined substantially. Meaning, current volume throughput is actually understated when comparing OTVI now to OTVI in November 2020. After adjusting for rejected tenders, the accepted outbound tender volume index is just 2.2% below the 2020 peak in November. At that time, OTVI surged towards 17,000, but the rejection rate moved in-kind towards its natural ceiling of 28%. So, the total accepted freight tenders in mid-June is comparable to the peakiest of peak seasons in 2020. Incredible.

However, since the middle of June, tender rejections have begun increasing again heading into Independence Day, a time when many drivers spend time off the road with their families. The move higher in OTVI this week has been driven primarily by higher rejection rates, rather than higher freight demand.

Over the past month, the drivers of freight volumes have continued to be imports and from just about every port. The west coast continues to provide seemingly non-stop container ships, while Houston, New Orleans, Miami and Savannah are seeing very strong throughput as well.

It is van volumes that are driving freight markets higher right now. The Reefer Outbound Tender Volume index has tumbled 25% since its all-time high in the weeks after the polar vortex in February. Since Memorial Day, ROTVI has fallen another 10.5%. This is likely a factor of declining grocery demand, but I would expect the trend to reverse course in the near future as summer festivities accelerate.

Dry van volumes pushed higher in the back half of May and into June while reefer volumes have declined significantly.

SONAR: VOTVI.USA (Blue); ROTVI.USA (Green)

The congestion at our nation’s ports has spread from Los Angeles and Long Beach to Oakland, California. The California coastline is a parking lot of container ships, most of which are full to the brim with imports, awaiting berth. As detailed in the economic section, there are some signs that the reversion is underway with Americans paring back spending on pandemic superstar categories in favor of airlines, lodging and entertainment. But spending remains strong despite the moderation, and low inventory levels offset much of the decline that will occur from slowing demand. Real inventories are 3% higher now than pre-pandemic, but real sales growth is far outpacing inventory growth, leading to the lowest inventory-to-sales ratio in decades.

On the manufacturing side, the ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded in May after declining in April. We’ve been in expansionary territory for 12 consecutive months. New orders, production, imports/exports and employment are all growing. The major issues should come as no surprise: Deliveries are slowing, backlogs are growing and inventories are too low.

In all, there are many, many catalysts to keep freight demand strong for the foreseeable future. Americans are traveling and spending on services at a high clip, but the high savings rate is enabling it to occur without a massive detriment to goods spending.

SONAR: OTVI.USA (2021 – Blue; 2020 – Green; 2019 – Orange; 2018 – Purple)

Tender rejections: Absolute level and momentum positive for carriers

After declining steadily from mid-March to mid-May, the Outbound Tender Reject Index has reversed course heading into Independence Day. This is typical for a national holiday as carriers selectively choose loads to bring drivers closer to home. OTRI now sits above 25% for the first time in June.

One of our newest indices in SONAR gives us the ability to compare markets on as close to an apples-to-apples basis as possible. FreightWaves’ Carrier Trend Market Score indices are divided into two perspectives – shipper/broker and carrier. The scores are positioned on a scale from 1-100 and have values measuring van and refrigerated (reefer) capacity. The higher values represent more favorable trends for whichever perspective. For instance, a value near the high-end of the range would suggest very favorable conditions for carriers in our carrier capacity trend score index.

For the past several weeks, capacity disparities have been driven by import volumes. The markets with the tightest carrier capacity coincide with the nation’s busiest ports. Ontario, California, Savannah, Georgia, and Atlanta all have carrier capacity trend market scores of 100.

SONAR: Capacity Trend Market Score (Carriers – VAN)

By mode. Reefer rejection rates tumbled from it’s all-time high in March to under 35% in mid-June before popping higher over the past two weeks. Reefer rejections are still quite high from a historical standpoint at 38%, but are significantly lower than just three months ago when reefer carriers were rejecting half of all electronically tendered loads.

SONAR: VOTRI.USA (Blue); ROTRI.USA (Orange)

Dry van tenders make up the majority of all tenders, so the van rejection rate mirrors the aggregate index closely. Van rejections have surged from ~23% to ~26% over the past two weeks.

Yes, one-in-four loads being rejected is not ideal, but it’s better than 30%. I am unaware of any meaningful signals that capacity is being added at a rate that would change my outlook. With so many catalysts for demand, and many constraints on drivers including the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse, driver training school closures and continued government unemployment benefits, the outlook is tight throughout this year and into 2022. That’s not to say we won’t see improvement as consumers revert to pre-pandemic spending habits and drivers enter or reenter the market. But I’m not expecting any quick reversal of this environment; there are simply too many catalysts driving volume and suppressing capacity.

SONAR: OTRI.USA (2020/21 – Blue; 2020 – Green; 2019 – Orange)

Freight rates: Absolute level and momentum positive for carriers

Throughout June, spot rates have moderated while contract rates have pushed higher. The Truckstop.com dry van rate per mile (incl. fuel) has fallen from $3.21 to $3.11 since the beginning of June, while FreightWaves van contract rates have risen from $2.50 to $2.59/mile, exclusive of fuel.

I still believe the Truckstop.com dry van national average will not retest the post-vortex surge pricing that brought spot rates up to an all-time high of $3.30. But, there aren’t many catalysts to bring spot rates down anytime soon either. Demand is unwavering with continued strong consumer goods demand, humming industrial recovery and a potentially cooling, yet still sizzling, hot housing market. And carriers can’t fill enough trucks to keep up with demand.

Prior to the seasonal movements we’re seeing in tender rejections, routing guides generally had been improving through Q2. We should continue to see a convergence between spot and contract rates, but spot rates will remain historically very elevated throughout the summer as demand simply outstrips capacity.

SONAR: TSTOPVRPM.USA (Blue); VCRPM1.USA (Green)

Economic stats: Momentum and absolute level neutral

Several economic releases this week are worth noting.

Weekly jobless claims were released Thursday and give us one of the best close-to-real-time indicators of the overall economy. This week, the data was again very promising as the labor market continues on a bumpy but trajectorially stable recovery path.

First-time filings totaled 411,000 for the week ended June 19, a slight decrease from the previous total of 418,000 but worse than the 380,000 Dow Jones estimate, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims have held above 400,000 for consecutive weeks after falling to a pandemic low of 374,000 three weeks ago. As things stand, the current level of initial claims is about double where it was prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The good news on the jobs front is that continuing claims are on the decline, falling to 3.39 million, a drop of 144,000. That number runs a week behind the headline claims total.

Initial jobless claims (weekly in May 2020-May 2021)

At the time of writing, the newest weekly data for the week ending May 29 had not been updated in SONAR. This week, claims fell from 405,000 to 385,000.

SONAR: IJC.USA

Consumer. Turning to consumer spending, as measured by Bank of America weekly card (both debit and credit) spending data, total card spending (TCS) in the latest week accelerated to 22% over 2019. This is the first time in June that TCS has topped 20% over 2019, but spending has been running up 16-19% consistently on a two-year comp for months. For contect, the average pre-pandemic two-year growth rate was about 8% (from 2012 to 2019).

The Bank of America team highlighted service spending in the nation’s two largest state economies, California and New York, which are now fully reopened. Spending at restaurants is now well above 2019 in both states, and the team believes there is more capacity for spending to accelerate in the states that were slower to reopen given pent-up demand.

There was also a notable acceleration in spending on clothing this week, according to Bank of America. It could be a reversal from some softening in the early weeks of June, or an indication of people refreshing wardrobes ahead of a return to work, more travel and vacations. One tepid statement for freight markets from this week;s report: Leisure spending is on the rise and durable goods spending is flatlining.

FreightWaves’ Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index, both a measure of relative demand and capacity, moves directionally with the ISM PMI.

SONAR: ISM.PMI (Blue); FOTRI.USA (Green)

Manufacturing. Over the past two weeks, regional manufacturing surveys have reported generally positive readings amid logistical challenges. The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index declined 6.9 points to 17.4 in June, retreating from strong readings the past two months. The Empire State Index is a diffusion index with a baseline of zero; any reading above zero indicates improving or expansionary conditions.

Delivery times lengthened to a new record during the month, new orders and shipments fell, and inventories entered negative territory. The supply chain and transportation challenges are as visible upstream as downstream, but overall the manufacturing sector is handling. Growth continued throughout the second quarter in both the Empire State and Philly Fed indices.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business activity index edged lower to a still robust 30.7 in June from 31.5 in the prior month. Unlike NY, the pace of shipments growth accelerated in the Philly region during June. The employment subcomponent rose to a very healthy 30.7 from 19.3 last month, the regional bank said.

Record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy, but demand remains strong.

For more information on the FreightWaves Freight Intel Group, please contact Kevin Hill at khill@www.freightwaves.com or Andrew Cox at acox@www.freightwaves.com.

Check out the newest episodes of our podcast, Great Quarter, Guys, here.

Project44 acquires ClearMetal to strengthen predictive tools

Project44, a leader in real-time visibility of the global supply chain, announced on Thursday it has acquired ClearMetal, a San Francisco-based supply chain planning software company that focuses on international freight visibility, predictive planning and overall customer experience. The terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.

ClearMetal, founded by top software engineers and data scientists from Stanford, Google and other Silicon Valley elites, has created a “continuous delivery experience” that leverages proprietary machine learning algorithms that can forecast supply chain disruptions.

In an interview, Jason Duboe, chief growth officer at project44, explained that bringing in ClearMetal’s elite team is essential for the company’s future predictive solutions.

“Their team construct is fundamentally different. When you look at their data science, machine learning and computer science background, they are best in class,” he said. “Applying the team to solve really interesting challenges, starting with highly predictive ETA and deeper exception management to create more predictive analytics is really a key component here.”

Project44 recently acquired Ocean Insights to gain global supply chain vessel visibility and has announced it has expanded its truckload tracking services within Asia. Bringing on this new team of engineers will allow the company to capitalize on strong predictive tools, strengthening the supply chain of its customers.

“We’re going to be expanding deeper into Asia, and from a port perspective, getting data much earlier than competitors,” explained Duboe. “Our freight forwarder integrations will give us much deeper visibility from an end-to-end perspective in these regions.”

Along with the acquired skills the ClearMetal team will bring to project44, it brings a large book of customers, including large CPGs, retailers, manufacturers, distributors and chemical companies. These advanced use cases will strengthen the predictive planning tools, and project44 continues to expand into different customer markets.

“What we gain from ClearMetal is a holistic platform for anybody that joins the platform in the future,” said Duboe. “They have large customers with incredibly demanding and advanced use cases. So when it comes to order and inventory, functionality, supplier onboarding, and moving upstream into those processes, we can capture exceptions earlier on.”

Click here for more articles by Grace Sharkey.

Project44 expands real-time visibility into China

Project44 reels in Ocean Insights in ‘largest acquisition in visibility space’

‘Project44’s vision has always been global’

230-plus immigrants arrested in crackdown targeting unauthorized CDL holders

Federal and state law enforcement agencies arrested more than 230 undocumented immigrants, including more than 40 commercial driver’s license holders, during a 72-hour enforcement operation spanning 15 states.

The operation, dubbed Operation Guardian, was conducted Oct. 26-28 by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and state and local law enforcement partners, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

It targeted immigrants DHS described as holding unauthorized CDLs, along with other individuals the agency identified as public safety threats connected to the trucking industry.

Operation Guardian follows recent truck blitzes in Arkansas, Arizona, California, Kentucky and North Dakota.

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin announced the results Monday during a news conference at Melton Truck Lines’ headquarters in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

The operation involved authorities in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas.

DHS did not provide a state-by-state breakdown of Operation Guardian arrests or identify which states accounted for the more than 40 CDL holders detained.

The announcement also did not specify which states issued the licenses, the number of commercial vehicles inspected or how many CDL holders were actively operating trucks when apprehended.

Operation Guardian follows another federal immigration enforcement initiative targeting commercial vehicles.

On Sept. 25, ICE launched Operation Guardrail, a nationwide effort targeting commercial vehicles operating in violation of U.S. laws.

As of Oct. 29, ICE had arrested 303 people through Operation Guardrail, according to DHS.

The agency also reported that between Jan. 20, 2025, and Oct. 28, 2026, ICE made 4,795 CDL-related arrests nationwide, including 1,233 arrests involving CDL holders.

However, DHS did not explain whether the latest Operation Guardian arrests were included in its cumulative figures or whether any individuals arrested were charged with licensing fraud or other CDL-related offenses.

The agency also did not release information establishing how many of the detained CDL holders had obtained their licenses through fraudulent applications or were otherwise ineligible to hold them.

Why it matters: The coordinated crackdown signals escalating federal and state scrutiny of commercial drivers’ immigration status and CDL eligibility.

Pamt Corp. reports Q3 net loss, books 109.1% truckload OR

a white Pam Transportation sleeper cab pulling a Pam trailer on a highway

Truckload carrier Pamt Corp. lost money again during the third quarter. Like other carriers, it pointed to elevated driver procurement costs and the spike in diesel fuel prices as the culprits.

Pamt (NASDAQ: PAMT) reported a net loss of $8.1 million, or 38 cents per share, on Monday after the market closed.

Earnings-per-share headwinds in the period included a $3.7-million year-over-year decline in gains on equipment sales (14 cents per share), and a $3.2-million y/y decline in non-operating income (12 cents per share). (The non-operating income line captures the change in value of its stock portfolio.)

Pamt booked a net loss of 27 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Pamt President Lance Stewart said that while the company is “aligning customer rates with the inflationary cost increases experienced over the past four years,” the “cumulative cost increases continue to outpace the pricing improvements achieved to date.”

Consolidated revenue increased 8% y/y to $163 million. Revenue was up just 2% excluding fuel surcharges.

Table: Pamt’s key performance indicators

Truckload revenue (ex-fuel) was flat y/y as a 3% decline in average trucks was mostly offset by a 1.4% increase in revenue per truck per week. Loaded miles per truck increased 4% y/y in the quarter. Revenue per loaded mile (ex-fuel) was down 1% y/y, but up 11% from the second quarter.

The third quarter marked 12 straight operating losses for the TL unit. It recorded a 109.1% operating ratio (ex-fuel), 240 basis points worse y/y.

SONAR: Van Contract Rate Per Mile Index (VCRPM1.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), *2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line).* The index shows a 7-day moving average of the initial reporting of dry van contract rates without fuel or accessorial charges. To learn more about SONAR, click here.

The logistics unit reported $45 million in revenue, a 7% y/y increase, and a 92.6% OR, 650 bps better y/y.

(Pamt doesn’t provide gross profit margins for the unit, nor operating metrics like load counts and revenue per load.)

Pamt used $18 million in operating cash flow in the first nine months of the year. Liquidity (cash, equity holdings and availability on its line of credit) of $102 million was $15 million lower than in the second quarter. Outstanding debt was down $10 million to $323 million.

“While I am disappointed that the progress achieved in customer pricing was offset by these cost pressures, I am encouraged by the continued sequential improvement in our operating performance,” said Stewart. “I remain confident that our ongoing initiatives, combined with improving market conditions, will contribute to stronger financial results as we move forward.”

Why it matters? Pamt’s results show fleets are having difficulties addressing multiple years of cost inflation, which occurred alongside weak pricing.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:

Waiting on EPA ‘27 rule, Rush says it might not be soon

With the trucking sector anticipating the release of the final rule by the Environmental Protection Agency on nitrogen oxide (NoX) standards–known colloquially as EPA ‘27–and what engines need to do to get there, one of the country’s biggest truck retailers took the issue head on its recent earnings call with analysts.

The message by William Rush, the CEO of Rush Enterprises (NASDAQ: RUSHA) and known through the industry as Rusty, was that the final rule may not be coming down anytime soon.

Rush said on the company’s earnings call with analysts Wednesday that “I’m hearing we’re not going to get it in November,” “it” being a final EPA decision following its July Notice of Proposed Rulemaking covering potential amendments to the earlier rule on NoX emissions from heavy-duty vehicles.

The initial proposed regulation and its amendments have numerous parts. But at the core, it will require about an 80% reduction in NoX emissions to get down to 0.035 g/bhp-hr, which represents grams of pollutant per brake horsepower-hour. There is no change in that basic part of the proposal.

“There have been some things that have gone in the EPA that are going to delay it,” Rush said, without offering specifics. “Possibly we’re going to be told to just work off a draft.”

EPA ‘27’s name is a reference to the model year engines where the tighter NoX rules will need to be met. And a truck retailer like Rush is going to be on the front end of whatever decisions are made by OEMs in how to meet the broader rule that is in place, either with some regulations that OEMs and others have not challenged, like the actual NoX limits, but others that are the subject of industry criticism, such as changes in warranty length.

Rush’s prediction in the earnings call: “We’ll get the final decree out in January or February, but it’s got to go on the first of January,” he said. “So it’s kind of up in the air exactly what is really going to stay the same.”

Wide backing for NCPs

The provision in the July amendments that garnered the most industry support were the noncompliance penalties (NCPs) that engine manufacturers can pay should they fail to meet the new standards. However, the NCPs are not a permanent change and will phase out.

Rush, from his perspective, is looking at OEMs that supply his retail outlets delivering NoX compliant or non-compliant vehicles on differing schedules, should the NCPs be adopted as an amendment to the original rule. “I’ve never seen an EPA law or decree where it wasn’t the same for everybody on one particular date,” Rush told the analysts. “Some will come in on January 1. Some may not do it until the following year.”

However, Rush added that “I don’t believe we’ve had time to truly test these engines.”

“So I think from a customer perspective, I would be leaning towards wanting to pay some NCPs, that’s my personal opinion, and roll in and test the new technology before I go all into the pool,” Rush said. “Let’s dive into the shallow end, not the deep end.”

‘Expiditiously’ at EPA

In a prepared statement sent to FreightWaves, a spokesman for EPA said the agency “recognizes the importance of timely action to provide regulatory certainty for manufacturers and the trucking industry. The agency is carefully reviewing the comments received and is working to finalize the rule as expeditiously as possible.”

Rush cited several OEMs by name, saying they were in favor of the NCPs. And their comments made to the EPA during the comment period on the amendments back that up.

For example, PACCAR (NASDAQ: PCAR), which Rush mentioned, said in its comments to EPA that it “strongly supports EPA’s proposal to establish nonconformance penalties for medium and heavy-heavy duty engines for the NOx standard.”

“The 2027 NOx standards meet the Clean Air Act’s criteria for nonconformance penalties, and they are critical to ensuring industry launches with robust and fully validated products rather than accelerating products to market before validation is complete,” PACCAR said in its comments.

Rush also mentioned engine manufacturer Cummins (NYSE: CMI).

Cummins, in its submission from late August, requested the EPA move quickly on the amendments, something Rush’s comments suggest is not going to occur.

“There is an urgent need for EPA to finalize some of the proposed amendments as soon as possible, for example, those related to emissions warranty, emissions useful life, and nonconformance penalties, so EPA can certify manufacturers’ model year 2027 engines to the revised provisions and manufacturers can introduce them into commerce by January 1, 2027,” Cummins said.

The reference by Cummins to other provisions under study by EPA include the questions of warranty and useful life, which are somewhat similar.

Warranty and useful life provisions

As Rush Truck Centers described it in their own Q&A on the EPA ‘27 rules, useful life “is a regulatory requirement that determines how long an engine must continue meeting federal emissions standards for certification purposes.”

As Rush Truck Centers added, the proposed amendment would not implement tighter useful-life standards until 2030, giving a three-year breather.

The warranty changes in the amendment would keep current requirements in place rather than the original changes, which would have forced OEMs to recognize longer warranties. It has been noted by several of the commenters on the amendments that this change alone is expected to have the greatest financial impact on restraining increases on the price of the cleaner trucks created by the EPA ‘27 rule.

Warranty table is from Rush Enterprises’ web page

Rush on the earnings call referred to the EPA sarcastically as “our great government that can’t seem to write a final decree.” But he softened that by saying that “I know there are a lot of legal ramifications. They have to be very careful with the changes. They have tried to make it easier for the customers.”

The NCPs, Rush said, will allow greater testing of the tighter NoX engines without actually adopting them in fleets.

“Most folks want to run this stuff for over a year before they roll it into their fleets, because we’ve seen through history that new technology does not always run right out of the gate,” Rush said.

The rollout of diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) in 2010, Rush said as an example, resulted in “clogged particulate filters all over the country.”

DEF gets some changes in the proposed amendments. Despite some online misinterpretation that the rule for diesel engines to use DEF is disappearing, what would change in the amendments would be the elimination of the “deratement,” where low DEF levels result in engines slowing the vehicle they are powering. Instead, audio alerts would replace them.

ATA reiterates NCP backing

In a coincidence, the American Trucking Associations had already made its views on the proposed amendments known during the comment period, but about the same time Rush was making its comments, the ATA used the group’s blog last week to reiterate its view on the changes in EPA ‘27.

The blog post was put up by ATA, according to a spokesman, “because the rule is up for interagency review in the coming weeks and it reiterates our stance on the rule. Congress left town, but this is content that speaks to important activity happening at the agencies.”

Like the OEMs made clear in their own comments, the ATA favors the NCPs as a key transition tool.

ATA said of the changes in general that they “lay out a responsible path forward, maintaining ambitious NOx emissions reduction targets while recognizing that manufacturers need sufficient time to test new technologies under real-world operating conditions.”

“NCPs preserve the incentive for manufacturers to meet the new standard as quickly as possible while preventing reliable engine models from becoming unavailable in the market,” the ATA said. “As EPA prepares to finalize its rulemaking, the NCP provisions must remain intact. Without them, the rule would lose a critical safeguard for truck availability, fleet reliability, and an orderly transition to the next generation of emissions technology.”

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SONAR SCI: Custom Insights Now Includes Conversion Optimization: Shows Shippers Where to Switch Modes and What They Can Save

SONAR SCI: Custom Insights Conversion optimization graphic showing conversions between over-the-road and intermodal, and between spot and contract

The newest module in Supply Chain Intelligence: Custom Insights uses a shipper’s own freight data to flag lanes that could move from truckload to intermodal, or between spot and contract, and estimates the savings lane by lane.

SONAR has added mode conversion optimization to SCI: Custom Insights, part of its Supply Chain Intelligence (SCI) platform, with Conversion Optimization. The new module uses a shipper’s own network data to show where freight can convert between over-the-road truckload and intermodal, and between spot and contract, and estimates the savings on each lane. Shippers can adjust the volume they want to test, and SCI recalculates total estimated savings across every selected lane.

The Conversion optimization view in SCI: Custom Insights, with tabs for truckload to intermodal, spot to contract and contract to spot.

At a glance

What it is: a mode and pricing-strategy optimizer inside SCI: Custom Insights
What it finds: lanes ready for truckload-to-intermodal, spot-to-contract or contract-to-spot conversion
What it calculates: estimated savings per lane and in total, based on the volume you choose to convert
Who it’s for: procurement, network planning and finance teams at shippers in the SONAR Shipper Consortium
Released: October 2026

What is SCI Conversion optimization?

Conversion optimization is a module within SCI: Custom Insights, the consortium-powered experience in SONAR Supply Chain Intelligence. It shows shippers where they can convert between over-the-road truckload and intermodal, and between spot and contract, to reduce transportation costs, using their own freight data and SONAR market benchmarks.

It covers both conversions in three views:

Over-the-road to intermodal: lanes where rail intermodal can carry the freight for less than over-the-road truckload
Spot to contract: lanes where freight repeatedly lands on the spot market and a contract rate would be cheaper and steadier
Contract to spot: lanes where contracted rates sit above the spot market and moving volume to spot would save money

How does Conversion optimization work?

Three conversion views: separate tabs for truckload to intermodal, spot to contract and contract to spot
Side-by-side rates: each lane shows the shipper’s current rate next to SONAR intermodal contract, truckload contract and truckload spot rates
Terminal distance: truckload-to-intermodal lanes show miles to the nearest rail terminal
Estimated savings: shown per lane in dollars and as a cost-per-load savings percentage, plus a total across all selected lanes
Adjustable volume: change the volume on any lane to match planned changes, and total savings recalculate automatically
Filters and export: set a date range, select lanes and export the data for bid planning and rate reviews

The volume control matters. Few shippers will move 100% of a lane to intermodal overnight. Testing 20%, 40% or 60% shows the savings at each level, so teams can build a realistic conversion plan.

Why mode decisions matter right now

The gap between intermodal and truckload contract rates shifts with the market, and so does the gap between spot and contract pricing. When over-the-road contract rates climb faster than intermodal, conversion savings grow. [STAT: current intermodal vs. van contract savings from SONAR]

Most shippers make these calls once a year, during the RFP. Conversion optimization lets them revisit the decision whenever the market moves, not just at bid time.

How it fits into the SCI platform

Conversion optimization is the newest module in SCI: Custom Insights, which launched in September 2026. It builds on:

Custom Insights’ network view, which pairs a shipper’s own data from the SONAR Shipper Consortium with market benchmarks to track network health
Redesigned SCI experience with a Risk and Efficiency Quadrant for faster RFP guidance
Manual Analysis, the original SCI workflow, still available for mini-bids, project freight and new lanes
New contract-based datasets released alongside Conversion optimization: Routing Guide Premium (RGP), Routing Guide Acceptance Share (RGAS) and Contract Rate Change Direction (CRCD)

Together, they move SCI from showing where a shipper is overpaying to showing what to do about it.

Who should use it

Procurement teams planning RFPs, mini-bids or mid-cycle rate reviews
Network planners weighing intermodal for long-haul, high-volume lanes
Finance leaders forecasting transportation spend and looking for savings
Logistics managers with lanes that keep falling to the spot market

How to get started

SCI: Custom Insights users can log in to SONAR and open Conversion optimization within Custom Insights. Shippers not yet in the Shipper Consortium can ask their account manager about contributing data. For a walkthrough, contact your SONAR account manager. Shippers new to SONAR can request a demo.

FAQs:

What is SONAR SCI Conversion optimization? It is a module in SCI: Custom Insights, part of SONAR Supply Chain Intelligence, that finds lanes where a shipper could save money by converting between over-the-road truckload and intermodal, or between spot and contract, and estimates the savings.

Which mode conversions does SONAR SCI evaluate? Two: between over-the-road truckload and intermodal, and between spot and contract (in both directions).

Can I test converting only part of a lane’s volume? Yes. Users set the volume they want to evaluate on each lane, and SCI recalculates total estimated savings across all selected lanes.

How does Conversion optimization fit into SCI: Custom Insights? It is a module inside Custom Insights. Custom Insights pairs a shipper’s own data with SONAR benchmarks to show network health, and Conversion optimization uses that same data to recommend mode and pricing-strategy changes by lane.

When should shippers consider truckload-to-intermodal conversion? Usually on long-haul, high-volume lanes with flexible transit times, especially when truckload contract rates rise faster than intermodal rates.

How do I access Conversion optimization? Shippers using SCI: Custom Insights can find it inside Custom Insights in SONAR. New users can request a demo or learn more about SONAR at gosonar.com.

Amazon, retailers paid more for freight in 3Q

High transportation costs to impact earnings

Higher fuel and transportation expenses weighed on retailers’ supply chains during the third quarter, even as fulfillment improvements helped some companies contain costs.

Early reports from Amazon, Tractor Supply and Carter’s point to an uneven environment heading into the holiday season, with shipping inflation alongside isolated delays in getting merchandise into inventory.

A focus on efficiency pointed up how effectively retailers can offset external cost pressures by improving the movement and placement of goods. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported benefits from its fulfillment network, while Tractor Supply (NASDAQ: TSCO) cited transportation costs as a drag on margins. Carter’s (NYSE: CRI), meanwhile, reported inbound shipping disruptions that left inventory below plan.

Amazon said on its earnings call that its fulfillment operations faced higher fuel costs and line-haul rates on long distance trucking between facilities. Better inventory placement, shorter shipping distances and package consolidation nevertheless helped lower its cost to serve customers.

Shipping costs rose 11% from a year earlier, compared with a 12% increase in units. Excluding fuel and line-haul inflation, shipping expenses increased 8%, indicating that operational improvements helped the company handle additional volume without a proportionate increase in shipping costs.

Tractor Supply’s third-quarter results showed a more direct effect from rising logistics expenses. The company attributed gross-margin pressure primarily to higher transportation and fuel costs, alongside investments in pricing.

Gross margin declined to 36.4% from 37.4% a year earlier, even as sales increased 5.1%. Retailers are facing added pressures from rising distribution expenses while they continue investing in competitive prices.

Carter’s highlighted a challenge in the timing of inventory arrivals. Management said on its third-quarter call that port congestion and container availability issues had left inventory somewhat below plan.

Inventory totaled $587 million, down 11% from a year earlier. The company said the disruptions had not materially affected its business to date.

Why it matters: Supply-chain performance weigh on retailers’ holiday profits, as higher freight costs squeeze margins while late merchandise can miss its selling window and require discounts.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

Electric Trucking: Why 2,500 Tesla Semis Will Transform Freight

ZET Scale, a shipper alliance, just placed the largest electric truck order in US history: 2,500 Tesla Class 8 trucks. Cristiano Façanha from Smart Freight Centre explains how this demand aggregation program is breaking the market’s “chicken and egg” problem by making electric trucks cost-competitive with diesel, driving the industry towards a more sustainable future. Learn how major shippers are pooling demand to unlock scale and accelerate decarbonization.

A shipper alliance called Z-Scale has placed an order for 2,500 electric Class 8 trucks, selecting Tesla as the primary supplier in what the program calls the largest electric truck order in U.S. history. The volume is nearly enough to double the number of battery-electric Class 8 trucks currently operating on U.S. roads, according to Cristiano Façanha, head of Road Freight Electrification North America at Smart Freight Centre.

Z-Scale — short for Zero Emission Truck Shipper Carrier Alliance Leading Electrification — is jointly run by Smart Freight Centre and Catalyst Mobility. It pools demand from major shippers including PepsiCo, Microsoft, IKEA, and Red Bull to send a large-scale purchasing signal to truck manufacturers, enabling OEMs to price at volumes they have never before seen. The program’s total goal is 10,000 trucks, a threshold Façanha said the alliance believes will make the electric truck market self-sustaining, with the 2,500-unit first tranche representing round one of that buildout.

The central problem Z-Scale aims to solve is a chicken-and-egg pricing deadlock. Battery-electric Class 8 trucks have historically cost three times more than a comparable diesel truck. Carriers would not invest without guaranteed shipper demand; OEMs could not price competitively without high volumes; and shippers could not indefinitely absorb a steep green premium. “By aligning the entire ecosystem, and sending those large-scale signals and that guaranteed large-scale demand, that enabled truck makers to price at scale,” said Façanha.

Tesla was selected through a competitive RFP open to every Class 8 battery-electric truck maker selling in the U.S. OEMs were evaluated on price, performance, production capability, and maintenance support. Façanha cited Tesla’s Standard Range and Long Range Semi — the latter capable of 400 to 500 miles on a charge — combined with a competitive price and verified production capacity as the deciding factors. Three other OEMs — Kenworth, Bright/BYD, and Volvo — were prequalified for carriers who prefer an alternative to Tesla.

“Every truck maker that did compete was able to lower their price significantly in response to the scale demand. So that scale really moved the market — not just one good deal,” Façanha said.

The 2,500 trucks will be concentrated in 10 freight hubs across the country where the alliance sees high freight density and favorable economics. Those hubs include locations in California, Texas, the Seattle-Tacoma area, Illinois, New York/New Jersey, and Atlanta. Concentrating deployments in these hubs also reduces OEM maintenance costs by limiting the number of service locations required.

The alliance ran total cost of ownership analyses using aggregated shipper data and found that, at prices secured through the RFP and using diesel prices from last year — before the most recent run-up — 50% of the shippers’ volume could already reach cost parity with diesel. The alliance has 18 months to deploy the first 2,500 trucks and is simultaneously working with other OEMs to prepare a second wave. Façanha expressed confidence the deployment timeline is achievable, pointing to motivated carriers who see electrification as a path to gaining market share as fuel surcharges remain a major cost variable.

Z-Scale ordered 2,500 Tesla Semis in what it calls the largest electric Class 8 truck order in U.S. history, with a total program goal of 10,000 units.
Battery-electric Class 8 trucks previously cost three times more than diesel; the bulk RFP process forced every competing OEM to lower prices significantly.
At secured truck prices and last year’s diesel rates, 50% of participating shippers’ freight volume can already reach cost parity with diesel.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

LTL vs. Truckload: Who emerged stronger from Q3 earnings reports?

FreightWaves Finance Editor Todd Maiden breaks down Q3 earnings. Capacity drawdown continues, but demand needs to catch up. LTL carriers showed demand improvement and managed costs, while truckload saw profit growth lag. What’s your take on the outlook?

LTL carriers outperformed expectations on both tonnage and pricing in the third quarter, while truckload operators faced mounting cost headwinds that pressured margins even as revenues climbed, according to FreightWaves finance editor Todd Maiden, who covered the earnings reports for multiple public carriers.

Old Dominion Freight Line led the LTL pack, posting its first year-over-year tonnage gain in two years — an inflection that began in September and held into October. The carrier’s revenue per shipment outpaced cost per shipment by 440 basis points, restoring a favorable spread that had been absent for several quarters. Old Dominion reported an operating ratio of 71.5 for the quarter, with XPO and Saia both reporting ORs in the 80s. All three carriers guided for sequential OR deterioration in the fourth quarter, which Maiden attributed to normal seasonality rather than fundamental weakness, noting Old Dominion’s implied Q4 OR of 73.5 would still represent 320 basis points of year-over-year improvement. XPO and Saia were each tracking at least 250 and 230 basis points of year-over-year OR improvement, respectively.

Diesel prices surged 48% year over year during the quarter, acting as both a revenue tailwind through fuel surcharges and a risk factor for investors. Fuel surcharge recoveries lagged diesel costs in 9 of the 13 weeks of the quarter, and LTL stocks broadly fell roughly 30% from their early-to-mid-June peak, partly on concerns that carriers are over-earning in an inflationary fuel environment. Maiden noted that the concern centers on what kind of earnings-per-share headwind will materialize when diesel prices moderate.

“Old Dominion talked about, look, they’d much rather have some sort of resolution to global energy prices and domestic diesel prices before they become meaningfully demand destructive than the tailwind from fuel revenue,” Maiden said.

On the demand side, Maiden pointed to 10 straight months of ISM improvement — now in growth territory — as closely aligned with large national LTL carrier tonnage trends that turned positive in March and have continued to accelerate. He said increasing weight per shipment reflects more industrial freight moving through networks and some freight returning from truckload, both of which he described as encouraging structural signals rather than purely fuel-driven revenue gains.

In truckload, Knight-Swift stood out from peers J.B. Hunt and Werner, reporting 700 basis points of OR improvement and guiding toward an OR of approximately 86 for the fourth quarter. About 70% of Knight-Swift’s fleet operates in one-way, non-dedicated lanes, giving it greater spot market exposure. The carrier said its tender rejections ran 2 to 3 times above the broader market, its spot rates exceeded market averages, and it was carrying its most peak-season project freight since the pandemic. A new internal slide shared by Knight-Swift showed revenue per total mile versus cost per total mile, both excluding fuel, swung from a 90-basis-point lag in the first quarter to a 390-basis-point positive spread last quarter and an 840-basis-point positive spread in Q3. The carrier guided for low-double-digit to mid-teen rate increases on one-way bids, with bid season having started this month.

Maiden said dedicated-heavy carriers like J.B. Hunt and Werner face a structurally different dynamic: dedicated contracts are more durable and tied to PPI escalators, which smooth but also slow rate recovery. “Recoveries aren’t linear,” Maiden said, adding that most operators acknowledge demand needs to inflect more materially to sustain the upcycle — but that carriers flagging double-digit rate increases on non-dedicated fleets and signaling a desire to grow fleet counts again after two years of trimming suggests the industry believes the recovery has legs.

Old Dominion’s revenue per shipment outpaced cost per shipment by 440 basis points in Q3, with tonnage turning positive year over year for the first time in two years.
Knight-Swift reported 700 bps of OR improvement and an 840 bps positive spread between revenue and cost per mile ex-fuel, guiding to low-double-digit to mid-teen one-way rate increases.
Diesel prices rose 48% year over year in Q3, creating a fuel-surcharge overhang that pushed LTL and truckload stocks down roughly 30% from their June peaks.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

WARNING: Don’t Expect This Freight Cycle to End Soon

FreightWaves expert breaks down 20 years of freight market cycles, from the muted early 2000s to the current volatile environment. Discover how economic variables and policy changes have shaped boom and bust periods, leading to today’s complex supply chain challenges. Learn why assuming a quick end to the current cycle could be a critical mistake for industry pros.

The current freight cycle is nowhere near its conclusion, and anyone positioning for a quick market reversal is making a serious miscalculation. That is the central warning from Zach Strickland in a recent SONAR update, where he walked through more than two decades of freight data to argue that most cycles run far longer than market participants expect — and that this one is only in its early stages.

Strickland anchored his analysis to the Cass Freight Shipments Index, a measure of freight shipment volumes, paired with the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which tracks base truckload costs excluding fuel. Charting the data from 2000 onward, he identified at least six distinct disruptions since 2016 alone, calling the current stretch “one of the weirdest and most prolonged weirdest sections of the freight history that we’ve ever had.”

He traced the roots of today’s market structure to the 2004–2008 era, when diesel price volatility accelerated the rise of the fuel surcharge, hurricanes disrupted supply chains, and the brokerage industry began taking its modern shape. That period was followed by the steep freight recession of 2008–2009 — “arguably one of the hardest periods of freight history in the modern era” — and then a stretch of relative calm from 2010 to 2016 that Strickland called “the great stability,” marked by predictable seasonal volume rhythms and steady rate increases each cycle.

“If you were expecting this cycle to be over in December, that would probably be the worst decision you could make because we are very early and most of these cycles last much longer than that period of time,” said Strickland.

On the current market, Strickland noted that the Outbound Tender Rejection Rate had slipped to 12.73% at the end of October, but cautioned against reading too much into the dip. Tender volumes were rising even as rejection rates fell — a conflicting signal — and the Thanksgiving seasonal surge had yet to show up in the data. “The market’s not falling apart from a demand side perspective,” he said, adding that the rejection rate slide should not be assumed to have any staying power.

Geographically, rate volatility was concentrated in the West. Van rates were most active across the Mountain Prairie region, with El Paso, Tucson, and Ontario seeing notable swings. Refrigerated rates showed elevated blue — indicating falling rates — along the West Coast, while the Weighted Rejection Index flagged dark-blue rejections centered on Ontario and Southern California. Strickland specifically highlighted the Southern California situation as a forward-looking concern tied to an ongoing port strike, warning shippers to keep a close watch on the Los Angeles market.

The broader takeaway from Strickland’s historical review is structural: rapid freight booms create the conditions for equally sharp busts, which is why economists target 2% to 3% GDP growth as a stabilizing benchmark. For carriers, brokers, and shippers, the implication is that volatile, extended cycles — not the smooth 2010–2016 pattern many treat as normal — may be the more reliable baseline for planning.

Tender rejection rates stand at 12.73% with volumes rising simultaneously, sending conflicting signals about near-term market direction.
Strickland identified at least six freight disruptions since 2016, calling the current period among the most prolonged unusual stretches in modern freight history.
West Coast van and refrigerated markets, particularly Southern California and Ontario, are the most volatile regions to watch amid an ongoing port strike.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

Parcel shipping demand to increase 4% during holidays, ShipMatrix says

Side view of USPS and Amazon delivery vans parked on a city street.

Parcel carriers will deliver about 2.4 billion packages during the current peak shipping season, up 4% from the same period last year, despite high inflation, according to an estimate from ShipMatrix.

The increase in parcel demand is aided by an extra shopping day this holiday season, said ShipMatrix, which helps shippers get more out of their FedEx (NYSE: FDX), UPS (NYSE: UPS) and regional carrier agreements.

The projected volume would be the highest level for the parcel industry since 2022, when the Covid-triggered spike in e-commerce reached its peak.

Consumers have remained resilient so far this year in the face of rising fuel costs and overall inflation, which have diminished discretionary income. But analysts worry that the cumulative impact of tightening household budgets eventually could trigger a pullback in retail sales.

Retailers have also experienced a 16% jump in parcel shipping rates compared to last year, largely driven by broad fuel surcharges, other new fees and general rate increases. Fuel surcharges currently represent about 30% of the transportation rate and most of the spike is the result of carriers adjusting the formula used to calculate the fee rather than the actual rise in fuel costs, according to the latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index. FedEx and UPS implemented 5.9% general rate increases this year and recently announced plans to repeat the price increase in 2027.

Higher shipping charges have led some retailers to raise the minimum amount spent at checkout to qualify for free shipping.

UPS recently highlighted how its delivery network is better equipped this year to handle increased volumes thanks to new automation and RFID tracking technology. It said it will hire 100,000 temporary workers, down from 109,000 last year, to help keep packages flowing smoothly through distribution centers. Amazon, for its part, is hiring 300,000 seasonal workers, a 20% increase from last year. The U.S. Postal Service recently said it was ready for the upcoming peak season and plans to hire 10,000 seasonal workers.

The hiring differences reflect UPS’s decision to relinquish 50% of its Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) business because it wasn’t making money providing last-mile delivery service, UPS deploying more automated sorting machinery, and the broader shift of B2C parcel volume from legacy carriers to large retailers’ own delivery networks.

UPS has recently concentrated on high-margin, end-to-end logistics services for customers in many industry verticals, leading some to question whether it can maintain the parcel network for those deliveries without the density to offset the costs and generate sufficient margins.

In the first-half of 2026, total U.S. domestic parcel volumes increased for Amazon by 9.7% percent, thanks to the decoupling from UPS and its own delivery expansion into rural areas, according to the ShipMatrix analysis. FedEx volume increased 4.6%.

However, volume for UPS and the U.S. Postal Service decreased by 5.7% and 3.1%, respectively. The volume lost by UPS and USPS was more than the gain by Amazon and FedEx, with those additional 145 million packages being diverted by shippers to private networks of large retailers like Walmart, as well as alternate carriers like GoFo, Uni-Uni, SpeedX, Doordash, Jitsu, Veho, OnTrac, and Better Trucks, who have expanded their coverage area in the past two years, ShipMatrix said.

FedEx and UPS continued to head in opposite directions in terms of volume during the third quarter.

FedEx’s average daily domestic package volume increased 2% during the third quarter, according to its earnings report. Drilling down further, during the past two quarters, average daily domestic volume for FedEx priority and deferred service increased 2.16% year over year, while average daily volume for more economical ground home and commercial delivery increased 3.5%.

UPS reported a 3.3% decline in average daily package volume. Year-to-date daily volume through September fell 4.9% compared to the same period last year.

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

Write to Eric Kulisch at ekulisch@freightwaves.com.

U.S. Postal Service prepared for peak season surge

UPS automates 4 additional facilities ahead of peak shipping season

Parcel shipping costs approach record high as extra charges stack up

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Roadcheck Week doesn’t catch all truck drivers, but it has a long-lasting benefit to safety

Owner-operators can evade Roadcheck Week. Big carriers, not so much.

A convenient time for a vacation, indeed

How a truck driver gets stopped for inspection

A $10 million-plus expense to trucking companies every year … but it’s worth it if just one fatal crash is avoided

Time to start inspecting in the winter

1. The East Coast has lost half of its refineries.

2. It’s a financial risk to bring diesel to the Northeast.

3. Of course, we can blame COVID and the crisis in Ukraine.

The ‘everything shortage’ endures

Watch: Central Freight Lines’ impact on the LTL market

Central Freight Lines statement

Brief history of Central Freight Lines

What is SCI Conversion optimization?

How does Conversion optimization work?

Why mode decisions matter right now

How it fits into the SCI platform

Who should use it

How to get started

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