Fleet buying spree signals trucking down-cycle may be turning

Analysts said the latest numbers suggest the truck equipment market may be entering the early stages of a recovery following a prolonged freight downturn.

“While a portion of demand still reflects previously deferred replacement purchases reentering the market, the consistency and breadth of recent order activity suggest momentum is now being driven more meaningfully by improving freight fundamentals,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, said in a news release. 

Moyer noted that rising freight volumes and stronger rate expectations are encouraging fleets to advance capital spending plans, while improved clarity around tariff-adjusted pricing and upcoming emissions regulations has reduced uncertainty around equipment purchases.

Related: Truck orders rebound in January, but recovery remains uneven

ACT Research reported similar results, estimating February North American Class 8 orders at 46,200 units, up 156% year over year.

The report ranked February as the eighth-strongest order month in more than 530 months of industry data, according to ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth.

“With onerous EPA’27 cost increases on the horizon, an aging fleet, and growing confidence that the winter run-up in freight rates will remain sticky, Class 8 order strength continued in February,” Vieth said in a statement.

Vieth said higher expected costs tied to the upcoming EPA 2027 emissions standards, combined with improving carrier profitability and rising spot freight rates since late November, have encouraged dealers and large fleets to accelerate equipment purchases.

“Dealers and large fleets have even greater incentive to find the budget for equipment now rather than later,” Vieth said. “Arguably, the most important factor to the order turnaround has been the sustained run-up in spot rates that started in late November.”

The chart in ACT’s report shows February orders climbing to 46,200 units with a 156% year-over-year increase, marking a sharp turnaround after weaker order volumes through much of 2025.

Medium-duty trucks saw more modest gains. ACT Research reported Class 5-7 orders totaled 17,400 units in February, up 6.7% year over year, though analysts noted the increase partly reflects weak comparisons with early 2025 demand.

Despite the strong February results, analysts cautioned that risks remain for the truck market, including high financing costs, geopolitical uncertainty and potential tariff or regulatory changes.