Employment in the truck transportation sector in October recorded its fourth decline in the past five months as total jobs in that classification are now down more than 30,000 since its most recent high.
The decline of 5,000 seasonally adjusted jobs reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for October actually was a smaller drop than in July and August. With revisions in place for September and August, the past five months have recorded a decline of 1,400 jobs in June, 6,900 in July, 30,700 in August — when the demise of Yellow Corp. first hit the market — and 5,000 in October. Sandwiched in there was an increase of 13,400 jobs in September, which had suggested the BLS might have overshot the impact of Yellow’s closure.
The latest report, released Friday, revised the September truck transportation total down by 900 jobs, but the August total was cut 5,500 jobs from a month earlier.
After all the changes, October’s total truck transportation jobs of 1,578,600 is 30,600 fewer than the high-water mark of May, when the BLS reported 1,609,200 jobs.
While economists generally look at seasonally adjusted data, they caution that the not seasonally adjusted numbers should not be ignored. The jobs total for not seasonally adjusted truck transportation in October was 1,589,700, unchanged from September. September’s figure was revised down by 2,000 jobs.
That stability in the not seasonally adjusted number “indicates that carriers who are involved with supporting the retail peak season or other seasonal demand, such as food or Christmas trees, may have taken a step back this year from the normal hiring ramp up and are comfortable handling the seasonal demand surges with the staffing already in place,” David Spencer, the vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said in an email to FreightWaves.
Spencer noted the capacity overhang that many have cited as the cause of the freight market doldrums, which he sees as more a function of many drivers and trucks not yet exiting the market. He said he was expecting further employment declines.
“The three and four month trends still highlight 22,000 and 29,000 job reductions, respectively, and that is a trend I expect could continue into 2024,” Spencer said. “Large quantities of drivers entered the market when there was money to be made in the spot market and balance must be restored before conditions can improve.”
The last time seasonally adjusted jobs in truck transportation were this low was April 2022, when they came in at 1,571,700. A month later, they rose by 12,100 jobs.
In other highlights from the report:
- There was a huge divergence between seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted jobs in warehousing. The October figure for not seasonally adjusted warehouse jobs was 1,902,000 jobs, a big jump of 32,400 from September (which in turn was revised upward by 3,300 jobs). But seasonally adjusted jobs in the warehouse sector declined 11,400 jobs to 1,871,000. The changes put the gap between seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted jobs at 31,000. The end result of these changes is that seasonally adjusted warehouse jobs peaked last year at 1,960,300 in June. They are now 89,300 jobs fewer than that.
- Labor costs softened in truck transportation. Hourly earnings of all employees declined to $30.49 in September; the data operates on a one-month lag. That is a 19-cents-per-hour decline. The most recent peak was $31 an hour in July.
- While employment at Class 1 railroads has been described as a “mixed bag,” the overall picture coming out of the BLS is one of stability. The past three months after revisions were all reported as 150,200 jobs. A year ago it was 147,600 jobs, but that hiring boost appears to have fizzled out for now.
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Robert
Good Day,
I see posts like this daily and I look back on my career and what I made many years ago in the 90’s and it’s just not that hard to figure out folks. The time on the road vs the financial reward is just not there anymore, I hear people saying they are making 80k/yr etc…that just is not worth it and many drivers are starting to figure this out.
I use this analogy many times per week and some may disagree and that’s ok, but we can argue ego’s and opinions all day but the facts remain the forklift driver is making more or the same net money at the end of the day. I know what people will say “that’s just not possible”, well maybe it is and I encourage many to run the numbers in excel and include your tax obligations, your expense on the road etc…
What many will find is it is very expensive to be an OTR driver nowadays, the same shower stalls we used almost thirty years ago and paid $2-$5, is now $15-$20. I know may will also say that you can get those for free which is true if you fuel, however I guarantee you at some point throughout the week or month you will pay for showers. You will also pay for parking regardless if the company reimburses you on this or not, you will ultimately be in a situation where you are left without options.
Now you take your home expenses along with your road expenses and it’s just not feasible on $80k/yr, it is also not worth the sacrifice and the risk of your life to be an OTR driver any longer. Our industry is in for one heck of a wake up call and all the nonsensical rhetoric of a driver shortage will become reality very soon, how soon? As soon as these companies end the bidding season and start relaying to drivers that because of the economy and lack of freight we are no longer able to sustain paying you x amount per mile.
Trust me folks it is coming and that’s when our country is in real trouble, who on earth would for any length of time in 2023 put up with sitting at a shipper or receiver for 4-12 hours and your not able to leave to eat, use the restroom etc…Oh that’s right they now provide port a john’s so when it is negative 10 outside you can try and use this option, what a joke.
People should really start asking themselves, “would I do that job and allow others to treat me like this for $80k year”, most would never entertain the thought. When Professional Burger Flippers are more respected than most Professional Drivers, paid better have an opportunity for overtime and more of a work life balance I would say trucking has real problems, that are destined to get worse in the near future.
You can only kick the can down the road so long, we not only kicked the can but we have kicked many drivers when they have been down and we should all look in the mirror, we are better and the drivers deserve better, period.
Stay safe
Kimberly M Willis
This is due to paying drivers less to run freight. More overhead costs and less pay will run anyone out of business. Brokers being greedy. Drivers shutting down. Refuse to run for $1 a mile . Fuel costs and inflation. Not to mention parking fees and lack of parking places.
riley
some of the numbers do not add up….on the Yellow Corp it was roughly 22000 teamsters driver jobs lost, 30700 was the entire company (poor management). As soon as the Yellow freight fall out is complete and manufacturing settles in after the recession prediction, there will be jobs for many drivers, that want to re-enter back into this job market
David W Wages
Gee, that’s helps the big ol driver shortage now doesn’t it?
Willie thompson
If company’s would stop effing drivers over they would have a problem
Linda Powell
The transportation industry is constantly in need of drivers. However, the number of available positions in other sectors of transportation is decreasing, leaving many drivers unsure of their options for transitioning into new roles. This is often due to the strict regulations and training requirements necessary to maintain a valid driver’s license.
Lily
Nationwide cargo in East Dundee IL is hiring. We have driver shortage more than there are job declines. That’s false info!
Andres mayers
The numbers aren’t true, don’t trust anything the administration is telling. Just because a owner op parked his truck and went to drive for a mega carrier doesn’t mean there are “More transportation” jobs.