Truckload transportation is typically volatile, and severe winter weather has long been a catalyst for temporary disruptions, but recent data suggests that this year’s impacts are amplified by underlying market conditions. The National Truckload Index (NTI) has hit $2.71/mile, inclusive of fuel, revealing notable turbulence in spot rates during January, echoing patterns from previous years but with a distinct intensity.
The chart below displays the NTI, which tracks the national average truckload spot rate in USD per mile, in a stacked comparison of 2023, 2024, and 2025, highlighting how January’s volatility stands out against the broader seasonal trends. While past winters have caused brief spikes by interrupting shipment schedules and sidelining capacity due to hazardous road conditions, the current market dynamics indicate a more pronounced effect.
(The National Truckload Index is SONAR’s national average truckload spot rate, inclusive of fuel. Chart: SONAR. To learn more about SONAR, click here)
The price movement brokers and carriers are experiencing today in the spot market is different from previous years, because this year the weather disruptions’ effects are being reinforced by a much higher level of tender rejections, one that has now exceeded the holiday peak at 13.42%. For reference, analysts at SONAR and FreightWaves typically consider tender rejection levels of 7-8% to be inflationary for spot rates; enterprise shippers typically want their tender compliance to exceed 95%. So a level of 13% indicates serious problems with capacity and/or contract pricing, leading carriers to fall off shipper routing guides.
(The SONAR Tender Rejection Index measures the percentage of outbound loads tendered by shippers and subsequently rejected by carriers, and indicates relative capacity or the relationship between demand and supply. Chart: SONAR. To learn more about SONAR, click here.)
The accompanying chart on tender rejections, presented with the same seasonal overlay as the NTI, illustrates this shift clearly. In contrast to the gradual declines seen in spot rates during earlier winters, the rejection rates this January support the observed price movements, suggesting that weather-related disruptions are hitting a market already strained by limited availability. This combination means that even routine winter storms can trigger outsized reactions in rates, as shippers scramble to secure capacity amid reduced options.
Historically, winter weather events disrupt the normal cadence of shipments by delaying pickups and deliveries, often leading to backlogs that push demand onto the spot market. Snow, ice, and extreme cold not only slow down transit times but also pull trucks off the road for safety reasons, effectively reducing active capacity. In years with looser markets, these interruptions might result in minor, short-lived rate increases as the system absorbs the shock. However, when capacity is already tight—as indicated by rejection rates hovering well above historical averages—these events can cascade into more significant volatility. Shippers face higher costs to move goods promptly, and carriers gain leverage to command premium rates for available loads.
This year’s scenario is particularly noteworthy because the baseline rejection rates are elevated, reflecting broader industry pressures. Factors such as driver regulatory changes and economic recovery have contributed to a constrained environment where carriers are more selective about the tenders they accept. While January 2024 and 2025 exhibited normal and expected downhill trends in rates post-holidays, the turbulence was not uniform; spikes correlated with weather events were more evident. But in the current tight market, a severe storm doesn’t just cause a ripple; it creates a wave. Regions hit hardest by blizzards see localized capacity crunches that spill over nationally, as trucks are rerouted or delayed, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
The implications for freight stakeholders are multifaceted. Shippers must anticipate these amplified effects and build more resilient supply chains, perhaps by diversifying carrier partnerships or incorporating weather contingencies into contracts. Carriers, on the other hand, benefit from the leverage but must navigate the risks of overcommitment during peak disruptions. Brokers play a crucial role in bridging these gaps, using data platforms like SONAR to monitor real-time trends in the NTI and rejection indices. By understanding that weather’s impact is magnified by market tightness, industry players can better forecast and mitigate costs.
Looking ahead, as winter persists into February, the truckload market’s response to ongoing weather patterns will be telling. If rejection rates remain high, even moderate storms could sustain upward pressure on spot rates, potentially influencing contract negotiations in the coming bid season. While weather is unpredictable, its interplay with market fundamentals is what truly drives outcomes. In a sector where margins are thin and asset utilization is everything, recognizing this synergy is key to strategic planning.
The data paints a picture of a market evolving under duress. Severe winter weather will always pose challenges, but in a capacity-constrained environment, its effects are no longer temporary spikes; they point to deeper problems. As shippers and carriers adapt, high frequency freight market data will remain indispensable for navigating turbulence, ensuring that freight keeps moving.
