A leading parcel industry consultant said Tuesday that he expects a contract agreement between UPS Inc. and the Teamsters union to be reached no later than June 30.
The comments from Satish Jindel, president of Ship Matrix Inc., are the first from any consultant to go as far as forecasting a time frame for averting what could be a potentially devastating walkout by 350,000 UPS-employed Teamsters. Jindel has also gone on record as saying there is no chance there will be a strike.
In a follow-up email, Jindel said he does not have inside information on the status of the negotiations. Instead, his views are based on having lived through many contract cycles and knowing the “current market dynamics to connect the dots and make a very credible forecast.” UPS-Teamsters contracts typically have five-year durations.
Jindel was the first to report last year that Frederick W. Smith, founder of FedEx Corp., would step down as CEO after 50 years in favor of Raj Subramaniam. Jindel issued his predictions to FreightWaves before FedEx published an official statement announcing the executive transition.
Jindel’s comments about the UPS-Teamsters talks square with those made by UPS CEO Carol B. Tomé, who has said she expects a deal to be reached fairly well before the contract’s expiration date. Tomé has said that the talks would start later than usual and that the rhetoric would be noisy. However, both sides are a lot closer on key issues than the public recognizes, she has said.
The current contract expires July 31. Teamsters General-President Sean O’Brien has repeatedly warned that UPS workers will strike on Aug. 1 if a deal isn’t reached by the end of day on July 31.
Because UPS delivers more than 20 million parcels a day, a walkout could be extremely disruptive to the nation’s delivery infrastructure. However, the industry has multiple nonunion carriers such as FedEx Ground, FedEx’s (NYSE: FDX) ground-delivery unit, regional delivery carriers and retailers operating their own delivery networks that could pick up the slack to some extent.
In addition, the U.S. Postal Service only utilizes about half of its 60 million daily parcel-delivery capacity, based on ShipMatrix data.
Another factor weighing against a strike is that the summer months are not peak delivery periods, and with volumes flattening in general due to demand weakness, it will be much easier for UPS shippers to find other options at this time of the year.
A Teamsters strike would be “painful but not catastrophic,” said Josh Taylor, director of professional services at consultancy Shipware LLC and a former UPS executive.
That said, no one is preaching that shippers wait too long into the spring to secure alternate capacity, especially if they need a lot of it.
Most analysts, including Jindel, believe that in the current market environment, the stakes are too high and everyone has too much to lose for the Teamsters to strike. It is almost a given that the union will receive a significant wage bump since much has changed with wage inflation since the current agreement was reached in 2018.
Much may hinge on how much the union is willing to bend on work-rule changes in return for higher compensation, analysts have said.
UPS declined comment, while the Teamsters were not immediately available to comment.
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Russell
After reading this about Sean Obrien, I’m not to sure what to expect!
Mobbed-Up! The Untold Story of Sean O’Brien and Teamsters Local 25: A Rank-and-File Perspective.
https://newpol.org/mobbed-up-the-untold-story-of-sean-obrien-an-boston-teamsters-local-25-a-rank-and-file-perspective/
Lisa brown
I believe the 22.4 job elimination will be a dealbreaker if ups doesn’t comply with it. I don’t think the union is gonna budge on this issue. Two tier wages are never good! Plan for the worst and hope for the best
We all need to vote and be involved. They can afford to pay more since they are reaping billion dollar profits on our hard work.
Kel
UPS, like Home Depot will probably do anything to appease shareholders and Co. especially union busting. The Elites are quite concerned about the recent rise in organizing. They thought they broke us by exporting so many jobs and breaking unions. They will get their buddies to include us workers in critical worker status like railroad workers.
The elites have no idea what they are up against. How fed up we are with being treated like machines for the ability to support our families and for some healthcare other countries take for granted.
We will fight if we have the leadership.
Ted Lasso
Safety is #1 priority. Then why are people getting warning letters for calling in sick when they have covid. Then those workers who are sick, come to work in fear of getting retaliated against, and in the proccess get other workers sick. UPS dosnt give a $h!t about me, my personal life or my mental wellbeing.
13 year regular package driver.
Steve Vinson
I just want my extra pocket back on the new shirts. One pocket is ridiculous!
Denis
Anyone who crosses a picket line should just put a tie on. You would be a disgrace. Amazon would love to have you. I walked in’97 not that I wanted to but did what I had to do!!
Don Keyballs
Satish is clueless and needs to stick to his home country for telling fortunes! 33yrs and ive never even seen a hardly VOTE count by June 30! Let alone an agreement! As far as the ones on here saying they’re gna cross a line…. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but if ya do, I sure hope you have A new life plan ! Every single one I saw cross the line in 97 did not have a job at ups in 5 years! They all got fired! Most mngt came up thru the ranks with the union workers a lot WERE union at one point … they KNOW each other in and out of work ! They aren’t gonna let their buddies get screwed! So ya jus go for it! Cross the line and watch what happens!!!! Personally I do not see a strike anyhow, our economy couldn’t handle it especially with the current administration! But no way on earth will an agreement be signed by June 30! If it is… we will all be rich !!!! Lmbo
Jenny standridge
Yeah I worked for ups 3 years and was recently terminated while on my medical leave and the supervisor never told me. I found out after a planned vacation I went on while still sick I returned earlier than what my medical leave said but when went back to work was never told I was terminated and never asked was I ok to work but I wasn’t ended up still sick and then she tried cover her tracks saying I was a no call over a month I asked her if I still had a job no reply then she said not up to her really but she terminated me