The consecutive week streak of declines in the benchmark retail diesel price is now eight, but market conditions are suggesting it might be a challenge to reach nine.
The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price declined 1.8 cents/gallon in the price published Tuesday, effective Monday. The latest price is $3.459/g.
It’s the lowest price since the benchmark used for most fuel surcharges was $3.471/g on June 9. The eight-week decline has sliced 40.9 cts/g off the DOE/IEA price since its recent high of $3.868/g on November 17.
But futures markets have turned notably higher in the past few days, with the latest concern for supplies coming out of Iran.
Ultra low sulfur diesel on the CME commodity exchange settled Wednesday at $2.0567/g on the same set of bearish conditions that have prevailed for weeks: a fundamental supply/demand imbalance that has led most market forecasts for 2026 to lean toward lower prices.
But ULSD settled Monday at $2.1544/g, rising almost 10 cts/g more in three trading days. The runup continued Tuesday, with ULSD at approximately 11 a.m. up just over 4% to $2.2428/g, an increase of 8.604 cts/g. If it settled at that level, it would be the highest price since mid-December.
There are no firm reports of Iranian supplies being disrupted by the street protests in the country and the threats from the United States on the outside.
But Iran is a supplier of anywhere from 3.3 million to 3.5 million barrels/day of crude, and a disruption of that supply as well as the standard threat of a closure or slowdown in the key Strait of Hormuz waterway for oil exports has given oil markets a jolt out of their long downward slide.
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