Shipment counts were off again in November but higher rates kept total freight spend largely in line with year-ago levels, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems.
Cass’ multimodal shipments index increased 0.7% from October to November (up 2.7% seasonally adjusted). However, the index was down 7.6% year over year and 8.2% lower on a two-year comparison. (November produced the smallest two-year-stacked decline in four months.)
The volumes index is projected to decline 4% y/y in December and finish full-year 2025 down 6%.
“After truckload volumes briefly improved in Q3 ahead of the October 5 import tariff deadline, they have softened again so far in Q4 as pre-tariff stocks are drawn down,” the Tuesday report said. “Resilient early holiday consumer spending data suggest some pent-up demand could be building, but tariffs are likely to continue to press prices higher and affordability lower in 2026.”
Intraquarter updates provided by less-than-truckload carriers showed minimal improvements in y/y tonnage trends during November as softness persists across the manufacturing and housing sectors.
| November 2025 | y/y | 2-year | m/m | m/m (SA) |
| Shipments | -7.6% | -8.2% | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| Expenditures | -1.2% | -5.0% | -0.2% | 2.1% |
| TL Linehaul Index | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | NM |
Cass’ freight expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, slid 0.2% sequentially in November, but was 2.1% higher on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index continues to hover near breakeven on a y/y comparison (down 1.2% y/y in November).
The expenditures index is expected to finish the year flat to down 1%.
Total freight spend has been buoyed by higher rates this year. Netting the change in volumes from expenditures implies rates were likely up 7% y/y in November. (However, Cass is assessing the impact of a changing freight mix from LTL to TL and has paused the release of its inferred rate data.)
The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, increased sequentially for a third straight month. The index was up 0.1% in November, following increases of 1.7% and 1.1% in September and October, respectively. The dataset has logged y/y increases in every month of 2025 (up 2.2% y/y in November).
“As holiday spending surpasses low expectations and weather adds to capacity constraints amid the holidays, the market balance is briefly tipping toward fleets in December,” the report said.
The report said three winter storms, “consistent with the La Nina weather pattern,” have impacted “spot capacity pretty hard” this peak season, “sending spot rates up in recent weeks.”
Some public carriers and 3PLs have pointed to increased regulation of the driver pool (English-language proficiency requirements, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and ELD and driver school crackdowns) as the reason for the recent spot market inflection.
Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $36 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.
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