After some stability in the futures market for ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) signaled retail prices might stop rising, a renewed surge has led to a big move in the weekly benchmark price published Tuesday.
The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price rose 9.8 cents/gallon Monday, published a day later, to $3.809/g. It’s the seventh consecutive increase, a period during which the price used for most fuel surcharges has increased 35 cts/g.
It’s the highest number since the price was $3.831/g November 24.
The latest move comes as ULSD on the CME commodity exchange has taken a surge upward in recent days.
Generally a reaction in the retail market lags changes in the futures market by a few days or as much as a week. Had that been the case, the more than 9 cents gain in the DOE/EIA price would not have been expected.
ULSD settled at $2.3598/g on February 2. On February 17, the settlement was $2.3906/g. In between, the high settlement was $2.4404/g on February 11, a relatively lengthy streak of stability.
But the sharp increase in retail prices since then is coming on the back of a big move in ULSD during the last week. ULSD settled at $2.5187/g on Tuesday, February 17 and $2.6869/g a week later.
Iran pushing prices higher
In a recent interview with CNBC, Paul Sankey, an independent oil analyst, said the buildup of U.S. military assets around Iran has been the primary driver of higher prices.
“We have a much bigger buildup,” he said. “This is gigantic. So people are getting very concerned about the amount of sheer firepower that’s being moved into the region.”
But other issues continue to boost prices higher, Sankey said, including “the shutdown of Russian exports and by extension Iranian exports.”
Exports out of those countries are not fully shut. But the web of sanctions against them has slowed those countries’ ability to sell oil into the market.
Diesel outpacing crude
Especially in the case of Russia, which is a major diesel exporter, those limits may be the key force pushing diesel higher at rate faster than the increase in crude prices.
Since February 17, the final day before the recent surge, the price of WTI on the CME has risen 5.2%. For ULSD, the upward move since then has been 12.3%.
Those are striking numbers in a year when oil was expected to be under pressure from growing supply and only mildly growing demand. A collapse in prices is still possible, Sankey said in his CNBC interview.
“There’s a lot of barrels backing up that aren’t able to be sold, whether they’re Iranian or they’re Russian,” he said. “So it become a question of do you expect peace in Russia and Ukraine? Do you expect a resolution or a new regime in Iran? Will that oil get flooded into the market?”
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