Grain, automotive keep U.S. rail traffic ahead of 2024

But new tariffs cloud intermodal outlook

(Photo: FreightWaves/Jim Allen)

According to Association of American Railroads statistics, rail traffic for the week ending Aug. 2, 2025, was 513,529 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the same week a year earlier. That figure included 233,805 carloads, up 6.4%, and 279,724 containers and trailers, up 0.2%.

While all categories except petroleum saw gains, the only double-digit increases were grain, 25.7%, and motor vehicles and parts, 10.2%.    

Through 31 weeks of 2025, traffic totalled 16,162,611 carloads and intermodal units, a 3.8% increase over the same period in 2024. The 31-week figure includes 6,828,409 carloads, up 2.8%, and 8,334,202 intermodal units, up 4.7%.

The most recent data from the Intermodal Association of North America showed mixed results, as BNSF, CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) saw weekly improvements, while Mexico’s GMXT (OTC: GMXTF) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) were below previous-year levels. 

Intermodal is sure to be affected by new U.S. tariffs that were imposed Thursday on scores of countries, with levies ranging from 15% to as much as 50% for Brazil, after that country was hit with an additional 40% Wednesday. The U.S. has come to trade agreements with a number of countries, including China, but hit key trade partners with higher tariffs including India, 25%, Taiwan,  20%, Thailand, 19%, and Vietnam, 20%.

“I continue to believe that the balance of the year will be challenging, with more downside risk than upside for intermodal,” said consultant Lawrence Gross.

North American volume for the week ending Aug. 2, from nine reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads, was 700,660 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.6% over the corresponding week in 2024. The 337,571 carloads was a 4.5% increase, while the 363,089 intermodal units, up 2.7%.

For the year to date, North American volume is 20,943,417 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the first 31 weeks of 2024. That includes 5,035,654 carloads and intermodal units in Canada, a gain of 1.6%, and 745,152 carloads and intermodal units in Mexico, a decline of 5.1%.

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