Large parcel carriers improved on-time delivery during 2025 peak season

ShipMatrix said a key reason for the service quality is that a plethora of new independent carriers has raised overall market capacity beyond demand levels, reducing stress on the FedEx, UPS and Postal Service networks.

ShipMatrix’s methodology excludes delays caused by weather, shippers (ex. incorrect address), consignees (ex. business closed for the day), road closures and other factors not in the carriers’ control. It also allows for an extra day to be considered on time for ground delivery because it assumes consumers aren’t interested in day specific delivery this time of year as long as they get the package before Christmas. Express shipments are counted on time if they are delivered by the end of the promised day, without regard to specific time commitments. The extra-day buffer doesn’t apply to non-peak shipping periods.

The U.S. Postal Service on Jan. 15 said mail and packages within 2.5 days on average between Nov. 15 and Jan. 9 compared to 2.8 days in 2024. On-time delivery scores were higher across virtually all operations, with the best scores being in last-mile service from local post offices. The agency attributed the improvement to new technology and updated logistics planning.

The gap between FedEx and UPS on-time performance is partly a function of their different commit times during the peak period, ShipMatrix said in a news release. For express, FedEx commit times of 12 noon or earlier were increased by 90 minutes such that 10:30 am changed to 12 noon and 12 noon to 1:30 pm. UPS, however, changed all 12 noon or earlier time definite commitments to 3 p.m., which resulted in UPS having a higher on-time performance for overnight express service.

Similarly, for Ground service, UPS added an extra day to more lanes than FedEx. Under the FedEx system, many of those on-time packages would be considered late.

ShipMatrix noted that the Postal Service’s Ground Advantage product compared favorably to the FedEx and UPS ground services and surpassed Parcel Select in volume for the first time in several years. Ground Advantage offers two-to-five-day transit times with pound-based, ounce-based and cubic pricing options for parcels weighing up to 70 pounds. Parcel Select is a program in which customers induct large parcel volumes into facilities deeper in the USPS network for last-mile deliveries by letter carriers to residences and businesses.

Priority Mail, which promises delivery in two-to-three days with an option of sending mail based on weight and dimension or via flat-rate envelopes or boxes, was a drag on the Postal Service’s overall score and volumes, according to ShipMatrix.

The parcel sector delivered about 2.3 billion parcels during the peak season, up 5% year over year. Consumers spent $258 billion online from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, a gain of 6.8% year over year, setting a new record for e-commerce sales, Adobe Analytics said. 

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