Morgan Stanley says 2nd phase of LTL freight reshuffle coming

Investment firm’s survey shows 35% of shippers, 3PLs still looking for permanent home

Most shippers will wait until next year to find a new carrier. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Leading up to and following the demise of Yellow Corp., shippers and brokers were quick to redistribute freight to other carriers. However, some of the newly formed shipper-carrier relationships may not be long-lived, according to a survey from investment firm Morgan Stanley.

A Monday report showed that of the more than 300 shippers and 3PLs queried, all of which had recently worked with Yellow, 35% are still looking for another carrier for their less-than-truckload shipments, indicating their first choice post-Yellow is not a permanent fit. Pricing, service and network fit are some of the reasons for another, albeit more modest, shake-up in the LTL landscape.

Yellow historically held a roughly 9% share of the LTL market but that number likely dwindled a couple of hundred basis points ahead of its late-July shutdown.

Most large, growth-oriented carriers run their networks with 15% to 20% excess capacity in efforts to stay ahead of a longer-term demand curve. That means the remaining top-5 carriers had the ability to absorb Yellow’s share. That’s not how Yellow’s freight was redistributed across the industry as many smaller and regional players were winners from the fallout. But the unwinding of Yellow on the downside of the demand cycle with many competitors carrying ample door space explains why the redistribution was accomplished with minimal disruption.  

The recent reshape of the LTL pie was apparent in third-quarter updates provided by large public carriers.

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    8 Comments

    1. Freight Zippy

      LTL Carriers need to follow the Southwest Airlines strategy. They do not offer their services to Third Party sites, if you want to utilize Southwest Airlines capacity you can only purchase seats via Southwest Airlines and nowhere else..
      That will end these parasites from killing any more LTL Carriers

    2. Maxwell Smart

      When O When will the carrier quit his or her crying and realize that the 3PL’s job is to put the carrier at a disadvantage, if not out of business? Hate the game, not the player. And if you’re stuck in a truck that doesn’t turn a significant profit, get a brokers license and you’ll finally understand!

    3. Paulo Martin

      3 PL COMPANIES ARE THIEVES THAT TELL THE TRUCK OWNERS AND TRUCKING COMPANIES THE RATES ARE LOW. SO THEY CAN PAD THIER PROFITS AT THE SAME TIME THEY TELL SHIPPERS THAT THE TRUCK OWNERS AND TRUCKING COMPANIES ARE DEMANDING THESE HIGH RATES. AS I SAID. CRIMINALS , THIEVES AND LIARS. MAKE 3PL. ILLEGAL. THEY DONT TRANSPORT ANYTHING. THEY DONT PRODUCE ANYTHING. THEY ARE THE SCUM OF TRANSPORTATION.

    Comments are closed.

    Todd Maiden

    Based in Richmond, VA, Todd is the finance editor at FreightWaves. Prior to joining FreightWaves, he covered the TLs, LTLs, railroads and brokers for RBC Capital Markets and BB&T Capital Markets. Todd began his career in banking and finance before moving over to transportation equity research where he provided stock recommendations for publicly traded transportation companies.