The freight market momentum is building at a rapid clip. National dry van spot rates — tracked via the SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI.USA), the 7-day moving average of booked rates including fuel — have broken out to a new cycle high of $2.89 per mile. This represents the strongest level since 2022 and confirms the market’s shift toward carriers is gaining real traction.
Chart: SONAR National Truckload Rate Index (NTI.USA) GoSONAR.com
Even more telling: rates jumped $0.12 per mile in the past week alone. That’s a sharp weekly gain that underscores accelerating tightness and carrier pricing power. Spot rates have now recaptured roughly $0.50–$0.60 per mile net of fuel over recent months, climbing from the low $2.00s that defined much of 2023–2024. We’re witnessing 20–25% year-over-year recovery in key lanes and metrics, with volumes holding at multi-year highs reminiscent of late 2022.
This isn’t isolated noise — it’s driven by fundamentals. The return of industrial demand remains the core engine, with stronger manufacturing signals, flatbed activity, and overall domestic freight resilience putting sustained pressure on a shrunken truckload supply. Multi-year carrier attrition (exits, driver regulations, and structural challenges) has left capacity thin, making the market highly responsive to any demand pickup. National tender rejection rates sit stubbornly in the low-to-mid teens (around 13–14% recently), with the Midwest still leading above 18% and tightness now spreading more broadly.
Seasonal layers are piling on:
- Produce season is ramping in major growing regions.
- Construction is accelerating as weather improves.
- Gardening and home improvement demand is building.
- Beverage season is gearing up for warmer months.
These verticals compound the industrial rebound, further squeezing available trucks.
The West Coast awakening adds a powerful pull. Chinese New Year landed later this year (February 17, 2026, vs. earlier in prior cycles), prolonging the post-CNY slowdown and keeping Southern California unusually loose into early March (outbound rejections below 5%). But the rebound is hitting hard now: inbound containers are surging, outbound tenders are recovering, and rejections are set to rise meaningfully.
This creates a classic “magnet” for capacity. Long-haul carriers chase West-to-East port loads for their superior length of haul (1,500–2,000+ miles per move) versus shorter eastern runs that demand multiple loads for equivalent paid miles. As trucks reposition westward from Midwest/Southeast corridors (along I-35 and parallels) to capture higher-paying outbound freight via I-20 and I-40, interior markets face no relief — expect even tighter conditions back east. The Midwest’s industrial strength and elevated rejections mean any capacity drain will intensify pressure, not ease it.
Broader indicators align:
- Tender rejection rates remain high nationally, with seasonal builds accelerating the spread.
- Dry van spot rates continue rising on resilient volumes and persistent constraints.
- Ocean bookings are starting to recover sharply from Chinese New Year
The bottom line: Spring 2026 is igniting hotter and earlier than recent years. The $2.89 cycle high — fueled by a $0.12 weekly jump — reflects tightening capacity, resurgent industrial demand, seasonal verticals firing up, and the delayed-but-powerful post-CNY import surge creating synchronized tightness. Shippers unprepared for higher costs are under immediate strain, with routing guides tested early. Carriers positioned for West Coast outbound, industrial, and seasonal lanes are capturing the gains as capacity reallocates — but back east, conditions are set to tighten further as carriers shift their focus towards the West to East longhaul.
Monitor SONAR outbound rejections and spot rates from Southern California over the next 2–4 weeks, alongside Midwest/Southeast trends. The speed of this spread will show how broad and sustained the impact becomes.
The spring shipping season is just getting started — and it’s going to be a hot one.
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