Rail unions urge Biden to keep current STB chair at helm

Rail labor groups are rallying around Surface Transportation Board Chairman Marty Oberman, saying calls to strip him of his position misdiagnose the root cause of the industry’s woes: operational challenges associated with precision scheduled railroading (PSR).

“We firmly believe that removing Chair Oberman or failing to reappoint him would undermine the significant progress the Board has made during his tenure,” said Greg Regan, president of the Transportation Trades Department (TTD) of the AFL-CIO, in a Tuesday letter to President Joe Biden.

In May, three progressive groups wrote to Biden asking that he remove Oberman from his chairmanship of STB and replace him with fellow board member Robert Primus.

Revolving Door Project, RootsAction and FreedomBLOC said the chairman mishandled the merger between Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. They argued that Oberman and fellow board members should have rejected the merger over antitrust concerns. The groups sought to replace Oberman with Primus, the only board member who voted against the merger.

But two union groups  — TTD and a coalition comprising 13 individual rail labor unions — each sent letters to Biden urging him to keep Oberman on board as STB chair because of how he has handled rail shipper and labor concerns and scrutinized the railroads on their service records.

“Put bluntly, the position advanced by the three organizations is wrong. Chair Oberman has our full support, and he has earned the continued support of this administration. Removing him or failing to reappoint him would only undermine the progress made by the STB under his tenure,” said the letter from the 13 labor groups.

“Chair Oberman and the other members of the current STB have valued the opinions of rail unions and ensured that the voices and interests of rail workers are heard. Chair Oberman has aggressively questioned railroad representatives in STB proceedings when the assertions of the railroads seemed to be without evidentiary support or appeared to be premised on false assumptions,” the letter continued. “Chair Oberman and other Members of the current Board peppered the applicants in the recent merger cases with numerous probing questions, challenged facile assertions made by the applicants, and encouraged applicants to accommodate the concerns of other interested parties as conditions for Board approval of those transactions.”

Instead of looking at the CP-KCS merger as representative of key issues within the freight rail industry, those seeking Oberman’s removal should look at the impact that PSR, a tool used by the Class I railroads to streamline operations, has had on the industry, labor representatives said.

“We agree with the three organizations’ concerns about the state of the rail industry and the rampant problems that exist. But their ire is misplaced, and their views as to what should be done to remedy the problems fail to understand how we got to the current state of affairs, and how best to respond,” the 13 rail unions said. “The real problem with service and safety in the rail industry is not the concentration in the industry, but the hijacking of the industry by hedge funds and so-called ‘activist investors.’”

The rail unions continued: “The path to necessary changes is a reinvigorated regulatory regime, both at the STB and Federal Railroad Administration. This does not mean reinstating a regime that was created when there was no competition to rail by other modes of transportation; but, rather, by creation of a regime that fits the industry that exists today, not the one that existed 40 years ago. We trust Chair Oberman to spearhead the regulatory effort in that regard. Chair Oberman deserves and has our full support in return for his work.”

The 13 groups that signed the one letter were Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way – Employes Division with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters; Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen; National Conference of Firemen and Oilers; International Association of Sheet Metal, Air and Transportation Workers – Mechanical and Engineering Division; International Brotherhood of Boilermakers; Transport Workers Union; Transportation Communications Union; American Train Dispatchers Association; Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen; International Association of Sheet Metal, Air and Transportation Workers – Transportation Division; Brotherhood of Railway Carmen; International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers; and International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.

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Yellow, goodbye? – WTT

On today’s episode of WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Dooner is talking to FreightWaves’ Rachel Premack about the drama over at Yellow. The carrier has told the Teamsters it will be out of money by August, but the union says it’s not going to bail the company out again. We’ll find out if Yellow can survive and what will be left of it. 

Tiger Cool Express, LLC shuts down.

Remcoda CEO Remy Garson has doubled down on nearshoring. We’ll learn about its recent strategic acquisition in Colombia and how he thinks nearshoring will reshape supply chains.

Optym’s Chris Torrence and Danny Zeenberg put a FreightTech spotlight on AI. Is it living up to the hype in trucking and is this still a business about people?

Justin Martin has the latest on the I-95 collapse; if drivers prefer check calls over tracking; a new headlight meme at truck stops; lunatic Lyft drivers; why the ‘80s hit different; and what’s ahead at the Future of Supply Chain in Cleveland. 

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J.B. Hunt still waiting for market recovery

J.B. Hunt intermodal containers being lifted at a port

Management from J.B. Hunt Transport Services said Wednesday that overall demand continues to be subdued. However, it noted some areas of strength in the market.

“We have a few pockets where it’s getting a little bit better,” President Shelley Simpson said during an appearance at a Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) investor conference in Chicago.

She noted that the market hasn’t worsened since the company’s first-quarter call in April but that more data was needed before the company could call an end to the downcycle. “We couldn’t call whether the freight recession is going to end this month or three months or six months.”

Intermodal traffic moving on the U.S. Class I railroads is off 12% year over year (y/y) so far in the second quarter, according to the Association of American Railroads. Following a 21% y/y decline in U.S. container imports in April, volumes are expected to be down 23% in May and 15% in June, according to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker.

However, J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) has been taking share, outperforming the broader intermodal markets in recent quarters.

Management noted that rail service has improved, especially in the East. There has also been some improvement in the West, but volumes have been under pressure there due to labor concerns, which may be aiding the service metrics. Simpson said the railroads have taken a more customer-focused approach as they toggle away from cost-cutting and precision-scheduled-railroading initiatives.

Softer demand is certainly weighing on the segment currently, with management noting that “there has been pressure on price” across all modes except for dedicated. Intermodal bid season starts every October, so all contracts for the recent cycle will be reset by the end of the third quarter. However, most of the rate changes will be in place by the end of the second quarter.

“We’re not certain when we’re coming out of a freight recession, but certainly prices are resetting. … Prices will be different in Q3 than what they have been here in the first half of the year,” Simpson said.

Intermodal revenue per load was 1% higher y/y in the first quarter and flat excluding fuel surcharges.

Simpson acknowledged that there may be too much intermodal capacity in the market currently but said that the company’s decision to expand its container fleet to 150,000 units doesn’t and won’t impact the way it prices loads. She said the longer-term outlook for the mode, predicated on highway-to-rail freight conversion, necessitates the additions.

The company is also having success blending its drop-trailer services with its intermodal offering. In the past, many shippers were relying on trucks solely to move those trailers to and from their sites. However, J.B. Hunt has been successful converting some of those loads to the rails. Management said drop-trailer service is a $200 billion market with less than 10% of shipments being executed on the rails currently.

The company didn’t provide any commentary around bid compliance but recently said it was only in the high-50% range, which is an all-time low. In the last cycle, the company saw more than 80% of contractually committed volumes show up on its network.

J.B. Hunt’s intermodal segment accounted for 47% of total revenue and 60% of operating income in 2022.

Management also noted headwinds in its other segments.

It said brokerage has been the most impacted through the downturn and it is still a little overexposed to the spot market. However, that is being cured in the current bid season.

Final mile is seeing softness in demand. Shipments of appliances are down modestly and furniture-related freight has dropped dramatically. Management said it is taking share in the exercise equipment delivery market and that deliveries into off-price retail locations have picked up.

The company’s pipeline of potential new dedicated accounts has increased although management said contract decisions (normally 18 to 22 months) are taking longer and its win rate is down. New contract wins in 2023 aren’t expected to materially change J.B. Hunt’s dedicated fleet size as daily equipment needs within existing accounts are down modestly.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden

Carrier update

NLRB decision in opera case favors defining workers as employees, not ICs

The legal battle over the question of independent contractor (IC) versus employee status produced a decision Tuesday at the National Labor Relations Board that is seen as likely to favor defining a worker as an employee rather than as an IC. 

In a case known as Atlanta Opera, the Democrat-controlled NLRB ruled in favor of defining several different types of workers for that city’s opera company as employees rather than independent contractors, which is how the opera company classified them. 

But the status of the workers was less significant than the fact that in handing down its decision, the NLRB overturned the so-called Super Shuttle precedent. That NLRB decision from 2019 came down heavily on the side of making it easier to define workers as ICs rather than employees.

The NLRB decision that the opera company’s workers were employees was not controversial. The one dissenting NLRB board member, Marvin Kaplan, agreed with the rest of the board that the workers, who were stylists such as hairdressers, were employees, not ICs. 

Instead, Kaplan’s dissent was over the NLRB decision to toss out the Super Shuttle precedent in favor of what is known as FedEx II, in reference to a decision involving that company that had been the governing guideline at NLRB prior to Super Shuttle.

The board’s decision upheld a regional director’s decision that the workers were employees.

The legal community that watches IC law had identified the Atlanta Opera case back in 2021 as one that the full NLRB board, with a shift in political control, was likely to use to dump the Super Shuttle precedent and go back to FedEx II. The NLRB decision cited other cases to back up its arguments, including a similar FedEx (NYSE: FDX) case known as FedEx I. 

Super Shuttle, a 2019 case involving the company that transports its passengers primarily to airports, set the primary definition of an IC as one who in his or her work for a company can benefit from “entrepreneurial opportunity” and enhance his or her financial gain. The Super Shuttle decision said control and “entrepreneurial opportunity are two sides of the same coin: the more of one, the less of the other.”

The full NLRB board in 2019, in handing down the Super Shuttle decision, cited a decision by the federal district court for the District of Columbia that it said elevated the question of entrepreneurship. In rejecting what was in FedEx II, the NLRB board said that precedent severely limited “the significance of entrepreneurial opportunity to the analysis.”

But the current NLRB, in its decision Tuesday, said earlier board decisions prior to Super Shuttle had “never afforded special weight or significance to ‘entrepreneurial opportunity.’” It criticized the 2019 board’s interpretation of earlier decisions as having elevated the question of entrepreneurship above other factors. 

Jack Finklea, a partner at the trucking-focused Scopelitis law firm, said staff at the NLRB had determined back in 2021 that the Atlanta Opera case could be the pathway to overturning the Super Shuttle precedent and reinstating FedEx II. Control over the NLRB shifted from Republican to Democrat that year, following the inauguration of Joe Biden as president.

“There were some [friend of the court] filings that wanted to really make this an ABC test-type thing,” Finklea said, a reference to the employee/IC three-pronged test that comes down heavily on the side of finding a worker to be an employee and is at the heart of California’s AB5 law governing the question of IC versus employee. Finklea said Supreme Court precedents might have made bringing in the ABC test challenging, so it wasn’t pursued.

“But there is no question that the test on finding a worker as an IC is tougher today than it was two days ago,” Finklea added of the Atlanta Opera decision.

According to Finklea, the NLRB generally handles issues of unionization and employee organization. He said the Atlanta Opera workers had taken a unionization vote (that reportedly was unanimous in favoring unionization, according to the union seeking to organize the workers). But the Atlanta Opera argued the workers were independent contractors and could not unionize if the classification of them as ICs was upheld.

Carrie Hoffman, a partner with the law firm of Foley & Lardner, said the changes from the NLRB decision are simply “returning to where we were pre-Super Shuttle.” 

“It is a return to the common law factor,” she said, as opposed to Super Shuttle, which was “much more employer friendly.”

The common law test involves several points to determine the IC versus employee issue. The test involves the ever-important question of “control” and how much of it a purportedly independent contractor has.

Hoffman said the opinion handed down by the NLRB could be cited by attorneys in IC/employee disputes in other legal venues, “but I don’t know that a court is going to pay attention to it.” 

Its impact will overwhelmingly be for actions taken by the NLRB, she added.  

There can be an impact from the decision that extends beyond the walls of the NLRB, Finklea said. In a case impacting trucking before the Wage and Hour Division of the Department of Labor, for example, “some attorney might use the NLRB decision to say, ‘This is what employee control means.’” 

But he added the NLRB decision would not likely set a precedent outside that agency’s activities. In particular, the Wage and Hour Division, in its rulings regarding IC versus employee issues, uses the “economic realities” test to help answer that question. 

The proposed DOL rule on independent contractor status is undergoing an overhaul to align more with Biden administration philosophy.

The Trump administration rule that is still in place also relies on the economic realities test but with different guidance on how it is to be interpreted than the Obama administration rule it replaced and the Biden proposal that is working its way through the rulemaking process.

In  particular, the Trump administration rule elevates two “core factors” above the others in determining IC versus employee status: how much control a worker has and the ability to profit from how he or she performs functions in the job. Similarly, the Super Shuttle decision gave special weight to the question of entrepreneurship. 

Away from the legal wording of its decision, the NLRB announced its action in a prepared statement. The board said it had “reaffirmed longstanding principles — consistent with the instructions of the Supreme Court — and explained that its independent-contractor analysis will be guided by a list of common-law factors.”

“The Board expressly rejected the holding of the SuperShuttle Board that entrepreneurial opportunity for gain or loss should be the ‘animating principle’ of the independent-contractor test,” it said in the statement. 

Finklea added that he would expect the reimposition of the FedEx II precedent in place of Super Shuttle to affect existing cases as well as future ones. 

Kristin Sharp, the CEO of trade association Flex, which represents app-based rideshare platforms like Uber, said in a prepared statement that the NLRB decision is “yet another example of regulators trying to push an ideological agenda with little regard for the impacted workers. The 21st century economy is enabled by technology and defined by unprecedented worker flexibility and choice — and we should be celebrating these options, not limiting them.”

More articles by John Kingston

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New trucking trade group has one focus: DOL’s independent contractor rule

Freight rail trade group urges federal collaboration to reduce GHGs

The Association of American Railroads has outlined eight ways that the federal government can work with the U.S. freight rail industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the freight transportation sector and “effectively combat climate change.”

AAR’s new paper, released Tuesday, comes as government estimates calculate that total freight demand is anticipated to grow by 30% by 2040. Meanwhile, the Biden administration in January advocated using freight rail as a path toward decarbonization because rail makes up approximately 28% of U.S. freight movement by ton-miles but only accounts for about 2% of total U.S. transportation emissions, according to AAR, quoting Biden’s blueprint.

“If rail moved 10% of the freight shipped by our largest trucks, GHG emissions would fall by more than 20 million tons annually. That’s like taking four million cars off the highways or planting 300 million trees,” AAR’s report said.

The eight ways that the freight rail industry and federal resources can work together are:

  • Supporting low- and zero-emission locomotive research through partnerships between railroads and rail manufacturers and the federal government, as well as continued federal funding for advanced research.
  • Helping railroad partners decarbonize through continued support of capital grant programs for short-line railroads and grant and loan programs for locomotive manufacturers and rail suppliers.
  • Allowing railroads to transition their locomotive fleets to zero-emission technologies when those technologies are commercially viable as well as operationally safe and reliable. This includes not imposing prescriptive means for reducing emissions in the rail industry, AAR said.
  • Pursuing policies that see rail as a low-carbon transportation solution, including implementing a vehicle miles traveled fee that considers vehicle weight.
  • Enabling railroads to make operational decisions that allow carriers to maximize fuel usage and freight demand, including opting not to impose restrictions on train lengths, which the railroads say improves fuel efficiency and ultimately reduces emissions through operations.
  • Promoting a broad-based, economywide transition to net-zero emissions by prioritizing the availability of alternative fuels and supporting programs that expand the availability, enhance the performance and lower the costs of batteries, hydrogen, biodiesel and renewable diesel.
  • Encouraging testing of new safety technologies through promoting innovation and allowing for opportunities to streamline waiver reviews, encourage pilot programs and establish performance-based thresholds.
  • Embracing permitting reform that encourages timely, focused reviews of environmental impacts.
(Image: Association of American Railroads)

Emissions reductions can also be met through strategic and targeted investments in locomotives as well as yard equipment such as switcher locomotives, cranes and service trucks, AAR said. Fuel management and network optimization systems can also be developed and installed to ensure fuel efficiency while also improving network fluidity, according to the trade group. Work can also be done to develop more aerodynamic, high-strength and lighter-weight steel rail cars.

“The need to reduce emissions is not only an environmental issue; it’s an economic issue,” AAR President and CEO Ian Jefferies said in a release for the new report. “This has never been more clear. Policymakers must engage in partnership with the private sector to advance pragmatic, solutions-oriented policies that support immediate emissions reductions and encourage longer-term, sustainable solutions. As the most efficient way to move freight over land, rail is a critical partner in driving further gains.”

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Daily Infographic: Achieve high-quality service without sacrificing cost


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Redwood Logistics, FreightWaves partner to integrate SONAR into Oracle Transportation Management

Redwood Logistics, one of the fastest-growing supply chain and logistics companies in North America, announced FreightWaves, the leading provider of high-frequency data for the global supply chain, has selected Redwood as its integration partner between Oracle Transportation Management (OTM) and the FreightWaves SONAR freight data intelligence platform. 

Powered by RedwoodConnect, Redwood’s proprietary integration platform, OTM users can now embed SONAR data directly into their user workflows to enhance decision-making at the point of carrier offers and tendering.

“Redwood’s status as an Oracle gold partner positioned them as a strong partner for FreightWaves because they have the implementation, integration and customization experience with large TMSs necessary to provide the most value to shippers and logistics service providers and to scale SONAR’s reach,” said Amy Hart Philips, senior vice president of strategic partnerships and execution at FreightWaves.

SONAR’s Trusted Rate Assessment Consortium (TRAC) data and market intelligence have primarily been used by analysts and other individual users in the FreightWaves SONAR SaaS offering and its suite of API solutions. 

The new integration between FreightWaves and Redwood puts the information in the hands of TMS end users, operations managers and logistics analysts. Now when users are tendering an order or shipment, they can compare their contract and spot carrier rates with current market trends in real time.

Storing SONAR lane intelligence data alongside order and shipment data in Oracle OTM can also open new avenues for post-analysis and continuous improvement. 

Beyond rate benchmarking, users can tap into additional data analysis from FreightWaves, including the Outbound Tender Rejection Index, Outbound Tender Volume Index, lane capacity score and more. 

“Shippers no longer have to sift through pages of data across multiple screens. All the information needed to fortify rate negotiations is in a single point of truth,” Eric Rempel, Redwood’s chief innovation officer, said. “By leveraging Redwood and FreightWaves SONAR, OTM customers have access to a cheat sheet of actionable data and market information to negotiate with. It’s like playing poker, but you can see all the other players’ cards.”

Current OTM customers can connect with FreightWaves SONAR by following a simple integration playbook, with a streamlined onboarding and configuration process that allows users to begin leveraging the integration and securing better rates quickly.

OTM customers interested in adding SONAR data to their environment can connect with the FreightWaves SONAR team at sonar.www.freightwaves.com/contact.

UPS agrees to install air conditioning in package cars

UPS Inc. has agreed to install air conditioning in package cars as part of language contained in the proposed master contract between the company and the Teamsters union, the Teamsters said Tuesday night.

New tentative contract language would mandate in-cab AC systems in all of UPS’ package cars purchased after Jan. 1, 2024, the Teamsters tweeted Tuesday night. Two fans would be installed in the cab of all package cars as well. All newer non-electric package cars and vans would be installed with exhaust heat shields to further protect drivers.

Also, all package cars would be retrofitted or equipped with air induction vents in the cargo compartments to alleviate extreme heat in the back of the vehicle, the Teamsters said.

“Air conditioning is coming to UPS,” tweeted General-President Sean O’Brien.

UPS has never had air conditioning in its package cars, arguing that frequent stops and starts would render such systems effectively useless.

UPS confirmed Tuesday night that it had reached an agreement with the Teamsters over heat safety that includes the use of new “cooling gear.”

The language must be ratified by the 340,000 UPS rank and file. The current five-year contract expires July 31, 2023.

Confusion reigns as labor dispute ‘fog’ blankets West Coast ports

photo of West Coast porta operations

There’s the fog of war and there’s the fog of West Coast port labor disruptions.

More than a year after negotiations began and over 11 months since the last contract expired, employers and dockworkers still haven’t come to terms over pay. Accusations are flying. Those speaking to the press have agendas, as do those remaining largely silent.

Relations took a major turn for the worse starting in early June, with no resolution in sight. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su arrived in San Francisco to meet with the two sides Monday and remained at the table on Tuesday.

Media coverage is warning of a renewed supply chain crisis, but data on ship movements and cargo operations is not particularly alarming — at least, not yet.

‘Confusing for all of us’

“These past couple of weeks have been challenging and at times confusing for all of us out here at the West Coast ports. There have been claims, counterclaims and daily concerns,” said Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka during a press conference Tuesday.

“Of course, we’re all concerned. The deal’s not done yet. Patience is wearing thin. Neither side imagined it would take this long.”

Seroka acknowledged that there have been spot shortages of workers and a “handful of bad days” with “slower moving containers than we’d like to see and longer lines on occasion for trucks, and we’ve had terminals not open their truck gates due to a shortage of labor or other business decisions.” Nevertheless, Seroka maintained that “the data suggest that the overall impact has been minimal” and “the cargo is flowing.”

Highlighting how different parties are putting out different spins, the commentary on the situation in Los Angeles from the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), representing terminal employers, is more dire than from the Port of Los Angeles itself, or from the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU).

PMA-ILWU war of words

According to the PMA, the “concerted and disruptive work actions” by the ILWU effectively shut down Los Angeles and Long Beach on June 2 and “shut down or severely impacted terminal operations” in Oakland and Hueneme, California, and Seattle and Tacoma, Washington, that day.

The PMA said work actions continued to disrupt terminals in Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland over the weekend into the following Monday, June 5. But a Port of Los Angeles spokesperson told FreightWaves it was “a one-day event that impacted some of our terminals to varying degrees on Friday. All terminals in LA are open [as of June 5].”

Last Friday, the PMA said ILWU work actions had resumed after a pause, with the union refusing to dispatch lashers, the workers who secure and unfasten containerized cargoes, in Los Angeles and Long Beach. The PMA also said the ILWU had effectively shut down the Port of Seattle on Saturday.

Asked whether Seattle had been shut down, the Northwest Seaport Alliance, which manages Seattle and Tacoma, told FreightWaves: “Each terminal operator is making its own decisions regarding operations, which vary across our gateway. Our gateway remains open, with the level of operations varying by terminal and in each harbor.”

ILWU President Willie Adams said on Saturday, “Despite what you are hearing from the PMA, West Coast ports are open.” The ILWU said the PMA “continues using the media to leverage one-sided information in an attempt to influence the process.”

On Monday, the PMA disputed Adams’ statement on ports being open and accused the ILWU of resuming its practice of withholding lashers in Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Seroka said he couldn’t point to “any one job class, any one work group or any one employer” when asked on Tuesday about allegations that the ILWU was withholding lashers in Los Angeles. “I’m not going to validate one view against another,” he said.

Data shows mixed fallout so far

Amid all the conflicting agendas, data on the labor disruption fallout is mixed. It shows little impact in some cases. In others, it does show fallout, with different ports seeing varying impacts on imports versus exports.

Seroka cited data showing that dwell time for containers on LA port terminals had decreased 9% over the past month and dwell time for on-dock rail containers was down 18%, with the number of on-dock rail containers down 14% over the past month.

Ship-position data from MarineTraffic showed nine ships waiting offshore of U.S. West Coast ports on Tuesday (one off Long Beach, two off Oakland and six off Seattle/Tacoma). But the same number of ships were waiting off East and Gulf Coast ports, where there are no labor disruptions, and the West Coast queue was negligible compared to the queue during the supply chain crisis, when there were close to 100 container vessels off West Coast ports for months.

Data from project44 on the average weekly dwell time for inbound boxes to West Coast ports has risen recently, but not significantly.

Blue line: Oakland export dwell time. Green line: Long Beach. Orange line: Los Angeles. Purple: Seattle. (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)

Daily data from project44, which is more volatile, shows more dramatic changes. It shows that dwell time for export containers in Long Beach and Oakland have risen well above dwell time for import containers in recent days, while the opposite situation prevails in Seattle, where import containers are dwelling much longer than export boxes.

(Charts: project44)

Click for more articles by Greg Miller 

Freight shipments, spend see largest y/y declines in nearly 3 years

A white tractor-trailer on the highway

Shipments and expenditures plummeted year over year (y/y) in May at the fastest pace in nearly three years, according to data provided by Cass Information Systems on Tuesday.

The Cass Freight Index recorded a 5.6% y/y decline in shipments during the month with expenditures falling 15.7%.

Shipments captured on the index were up 1.9% from April. “While it was a softer-than-normal seasonal increase from April, it was nonetheless an increase,” the report said.

“Declining real retail sales trends and ongoing destocking remain the primary headwinds to freight volumes, but dynamics are shifting as real incomes improve and the worst of the destock is in the rearview,” ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer commented.

He said the previous three downturns lasted 21 to 28 months. While the index has recorded a stretch of mixed results compared to the prior year, it first turned negative 17 months ago, suggesting the market is “closer to a bottom.”

May 2023
y/y

2-year

m/m

m/m (SA)
Shipments-5.6%-8.1%1.9%-0.8%
Expenditures-15.7%7.5%-6.8%-7.8%
TL Linehaul Index-15.3%-4.2%-2.6%NM
Table: Cass Information Systems. SA (seasonally adjusted)

The y/y weakness has also been captured in FreightWaves data. The Contract Load Accepted Volume Index (SONAR: CLAV.USA) has shown a pretty healthy gap to year-ago levels. The index is off 11% y/y currently.

Cass expects its shipments index to be down 3% y/y in June, assuming normal seasonal trends occur.

Chart: (SONAR: CLAV.USA) The Contract Load Accepted Volume Index measures accepted load volumes moving under contractual agreements. It excludes all rejected tenders. CLAV.USA remains depressed from levels posted a year ago. To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.

Cass’ expenditures data set was down 6.8% sequentially in May in addition to the large y/y decline. The subindex measures the total amount spent on freight, including fuel, which was off approximately 30% y/y in the month.

Accounting for the increase in shipments, actual rates were inferred to be down 10.7% y/y in the month.

The expected drop in the expenditures index for 2023 was recast lower to down 16% y/y compared to last month’s forecast of down 12%. However, even with normal seasonal patterns moving forward, the new forecast may be too high.

“With both freight volume and rates under pressure at this point in the cycle, that assumption could be optimistic, so we may be looking at a ~20% decline in freight spending this year,” the report said.

Cass’ index for truckload linehaul rates, which excludes fuel surcharges and accessorials, fell 15.3% y/y and was 2.6% lower than the April level. This was the biggest y/y decline ever recorded in the 18-year-old index. Compared to two years ago, TL linehaul rates were down 4.2%.

A loose spot market and contract rates continuing to reset lower weighed on the index.

Chart: (SONAR: NTIL.USA). The National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates are currently 18% lower y/y.

“Volumes softness does not appear to be over, but after a long soft patch, we see the U.S. freight transportation industry on the cusp of a new cycle as we begin to transition from the bottoming phase into the early phase of the freight cycle in the months to come,” Denoyer said.

Data used in the Cass indexes is derived from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $44 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden

NTI remains at $2.26 as rejection rates climb back up to 2.6%