Port Tracker: 6% first half U.S. import growth
Import cargo volume at major U.S. retail container ports is expected to rise 11 percent in February over the same month last year and the first half 2011 volume should increase 6 percent over the same period in 2010, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
'Strong growth in 2010 has retailers cautiously optimistic that the economic recovery is finally taking hold,' said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. 'While high unemployment and rising commodity prices are cause for concern, he added, retailers are encouraged by six consecutive months of retail sales gains and improved consumer confidence.'
U.S. ports handled 1.14 million TEUs in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 7 percent from November as the holiday season wound down, but up 5 percent from December 2009. It was the 13th month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines.
January remained steady at 1.14 million TEUs, a 6 percent increase over January 2010. Monthly forecasts through June are:
' February, 1.11 million TEUs, up 11 percent over last year.
' March, 1.16 million TEUs, up 8 percent.
' April, 1.22 million TEUs, up 7 percent.
' May, 1.3 million TEUs, up 3 percent.
' June, 1.37 million TEUs, up 4 percent.
The first half of 2011 is forecast at 7.3 million TEUs, up 6 percent from the first half of 2010. That compares with 17 percent growth in the first half of 2010 over the first half of 2009. For the full year, 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEUs, a 16 percent increase over 2009. The percentages were high because 2009's 12.7 million TEUs was the lowest level seen since 2003.
'This year will see the return of the consumer as the main driving force of liner imports despite lingering high unemployment rates,' Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. 'The short-term indicators that drive our model suggest that there will be solid growth this year but our caution is that the rate of growth seen in 2010 will not be repeated. We are projecting that annual growth will be in the 7 to 8 percent range.'