Global supply chain automation analysts at Interact Analysis have lowered their projected growth for the mobile robot market by $800 million, citing shifts in global supply chains and heightened uncertainty, largely due to tariffs.
The revised outlook, detailed in a May report, follows a previous adjustment by the firm, which had already lowered its short-term growth expectations for the mobile robot sector through 2027. That earlier report projected an 18% decline in growth over the next two years.
According to a new report released this week by Ash Sharma, chief commercial officer at Interact Analysis, the mobile robot industry is “currently undergoing a period of challenges and readjustment.”
“Our latest analysis presented an $800 million reduction in the 2025 market forecast, with lower growth predicted across all major regions,” Sharma wrote. “This adjustment reflects a broader reassessment of the industry’s growth trajectory, with the 2030 revenue projection now standing at $15.6 billion—down from our earlier, more optimistic estimates.”
As a result of this revision, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the industry has dropped from 26% to 21% over the next five years.
Despite the downturn, a 21% CAGR indicates that companies continue to invest significantly in automation technologies.
Tariffs to blame
Sharma attributes much of the slowdown to “damaging global tariffs” imposed during the Trump administration, which have disrupted supply chains and introduced new uncertainty into capital investment planning.
These uncertainties are now delaying decisions and putting large-scale automation investments at risk.
“The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index hit an all-time high of 430 in January 2025,” Sharma noted. “This level of uncertainty surpasses that seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many companies are adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, delaying strategic investments in warehouse automation and infrastructure.”
The report identifies several robot categories particularly affected by tariffs, including:
- Automated guided vehicle (AGV) conveyors and material transport robots: Shipment growth between 2025 and 2030 is now projected at 4%, down from 6%, due to a weakened economy and lower automotive sector demand.
- Large-form autonomous mobile robot (AMR) conveyors: Shipments are expected to decline by 15–20%, with a slight reduction also projected for smaller form factors.
“The message from Interact Analysis is clear: the mobile robot industry is still growing, but not as fast or as smoothly as once expected,” the report concludes. “Tariffs, economic uncertainty, and shifting global dynamics are forcing companies to rethink their strategies and timelines. For stakeholders across the automation ecosystem—from vendors and integrators to end users and investors—this is a time for strategic patience and adaptability. The fundamentals of automation remain strong, but the path forward will require careful navigation.”
