A recent market intelligence report by global supply chain automation analysts at Interact Analysis forecasts that growth in the mobile robot market will dip over the next two years.
In a news release emailed to FreightWaves, Interact says it has cut its short-term growth projection for the mobile robot market by 18% in 2027 due to “global economic and political turbulence.”
“The outlook for mobile robots — automated guided vehicles (AGVs) and autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) — remains positive, but it is constrained by external factors, which are leading to slowing demand, a ‘wait and see’ attitude to investment from retailers and manufacturers, and slower than anticipated price declines,” the release stated.
Machine mania
Three years ago, autonomous machines were taking global supply chains by storm. Robot sales reached record levels in response to worker shortages, with providers selling 11,595 robots in the first quarter of 2022 valued at $646 million.
At the time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found there were 600,000 open warehousing and transportation jobs.
DHL Supply Chain announced that same year it would spend $15 million on a three-year agreement to deploy a fleet of mobile robots at an undisclosed number of its warehouses in North America. FreezPak Logistics took the concept a step further by announcing it would open its second fully automated distribution facility in New Jersey in 2022.
Labor pushback
But machine automation hasn’t been welcomed by everyone in the industry. Automation has also been the primary point of disagreement between unionized workers and companies in various industries.
For the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), automation was a major issue in its contract negotiations with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The ILA argued that new automation technology would eliminate union jobs.
These negotiations hit a boiling point in October 2024 when the union went on strike, effectively closing harbors along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts before the busy holiday season.
5-year outlook
Interact’s news release stated that “rising wages, more diverse and demanding e-commerce, and economic/political uncertainty” are the key factors for investment in automation.
While autonomous robots look to be hitting some short-term turbulence, Interact said there is still room for growth.
“[B]y 2030, only 13% of warehouses will have deployed at least one fulfillment AMR and just 3% of all forklifts shipped globally will be automated,” the release stated.
Ash Sharma, chief commercial officer at Interact Analysis, said he expects significantly greater uptake of mobile robotics around the world by 2030.
“While adoption remains modest today and the socio-political climate is constraining growth, the rapid advances in mobile robotics and the flexibility these solutions offer are setting the foundation for transformative growth,” Sharma said in the release. “By 2030, labor shortages and shifting supply chain dynamics will make mobile robots indispensable across logistics and manufacturing, even as economic challenges slow near-term adoption rates.”
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