Saia reported a pickup in year-over-year tonnage growth in its May update issued Tuesday, though the improvement was measured against a softer prior-year result.
The Johns Creek, Georgia-based less-than-truckload carrier reported May tonnage growth of 8.4% y/y as shipments grew 3.7% and weight per shipment increased 4.5%. That compared to final results for April, showing a 6.9% tonnage increase as shipments and weight per shipment were up 5.6% and 1.3%, respectively. (April was up against a prior-year comp that was 480 basis points higher than May’s.)
Two-year-stacked comps show Saia’s (NASDAQ: SAIA) tonnage growth has slowed from a recent high of 15% in March to 8% in May. However, Saia’s prior-year comps range from mostly negative to slightly positive for the rest of the year.
Higher shipment weights are a sign of an improving LTL market, typically driving revenue per shipment and margins higher. Saia’s weight per shipment averaged 8% on a two-year-stacked comp in both April and May.
Manufacturing data released Monday showed industrial activity was positive for a fifth consecutive month in May. The Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a 54 reading for the month, which was 130 bps higher than April. (A reading above 50 signals expansion while one below 50 indicates contraction.) The May reading was the highest for the dataset in four years.
The new orders subindex—an indicator of future activity—came in at 56.8, 270 bps higher sequentially. (Inflections in PMI data usually lead LTL volumes by a few months.)
Saia doesn’t provide any revenue-based metrics in its intra-quarter updates. It previously disclosed that contractual rate renewals averaged 6.7% in the first quarter (up 12.8% on a two-year-stacked comp).
The company previously guided to 400 to 450 bps of sequential operating margin improvement in the second quarter. (Its margin normally improves 250 to 300 bps from the first to the second quarter.) Higher tonnage and a weaker first-quarter operating result formed the outlook.
The guide implies an 87.5% operating ratio (inverse of operating margin) at the midpoint of the range, which would mark a y/y improvement for the first time in over two years. Saia’s massive terminal expansion has been a drag on results. However, margin pressure is easing as the carrier’s approximately 40 new locations operated profitably during the first quarter.
Shares of SAIA were off 1.3% at 12:29 p.m. EDT on Tuesday compared to the S&P 500, which was up 0.1%.
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