There is growing sentiment that higher trans-Pacific spot rates will not hold and prospects for shipping lines remain weak.
“We are starting to see ocean carriers systematically take geopolitical risk into consideration,” says Xeneta’s Erik Devetak.
Jefferies’ Omar Nokta believes container shipping investors are starting to look toward “the end of the destock and beginning of the restock.”
“Simply put, there’s no bigger priority right now than this contract agreement,” says Gene Seroka of the Port of Los Angeles.
Although import volumes show signs of a nascent recovery, the inventory overhang remains daunting.
First-quarter numbers from container lines Cosco, OOCL and Evergreen show lingering upside from the tail end of the boom.
After labor unrest closed Los Angeles and Long Beach on Friday, ports on the East and Gulf coasts look even more attractive.
Worsening China-U.S. relations underscore how pivotal geopolitics has become to global shipping and trade.
Despite a collapse in freight rates, container shipping is not behaving like an industry facing an imminent crisis.
The trend in container shipping is summed up by the adage, “The higher you climb, the further you have to fall.”
Surging costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be a taste of things to come as shipping transitions to more expensive “green” fuels.
A fifth of U.S. containerized imports come from Europe. Shipping on this route remains much more expensive than it used to be.
Fees to register a business or file complaints at the Federal Maritime Commission will be significantly higher in 2023 to account for higher agency costs.
Flexport projects trans-Pacific contract rates will decline around 70% from 2022 levels but still be around 30% above current spot rates.
U.S. importers have forsaken their traditional gateway in Southern California. Many may be gone for good.
Quarterly net losses could be around the corner for container lines, but EBITDA will stay high even if carriers dip into the red.
Shipping line Zim could face net losses in the quarters ahead, yet it has a hefty cash cushion to soften the blow.
U.S. businesses overshot in 2022, importing way more than they needed. The hangover is in full swing, depressing 2023 imports.
Supply chain issues are in the rearview mirror for Fed inflation policy, but for importers, there’s still room for improvement.
Container lines are unable to prop up rates because they haven’t culled enough capacity to compensate for weak demand.
