Rail and truck data highlight a strong industrial economy

Intermodal traffic also showed improvement, averaging 280,076 units per week (the second-highest March level on record) and rising 1.4% year-over-year.

Industrial Goods Signal Strength

Rail volumes tied to industrial activity are among the clearest bright spots, with firming demand across industrial inputs and chemicals.

Chemical shipments stand out as a particularly strong indicator. The AAR report states: “Chemical shipments remain one of the clearest indicators of industrial health, and they continue to outperform.”

March chemical volumes reached a record weekly average of 35,580 carloads, up 5.5% year-over-year. First-quarter chemical volumes were the highest on record. This performance reflects the competitiveness of U.S. chemical producers, supported by advantaged domestic natural gas prices that provide both energy and feedstock, pointing to sustained domestic production and export demand.

Grain traffic also contributed significantly, with volumes up 10.3% to over 97,900 carloads in March and the highest Q1 since 1993.

Carloads excluding coal — a cleaner read on industrial, agricultural, and consumer-linked freight — averaged 171,338 per week in March, the strongest March level since 2008 and the highest monthly level since August 2019. Year-to-date, these volumes are up 4.5% and at their highest level since 2015.

New trade data adds further evidence of a manufacturing buildup. Capital goods now make up a record 41% of all U.S. goods imports — largely specialized equipment supporting future production capacity — while the overall trade deficit in the first two months of 2026 is down 55% compared to the same period in 2025. This shift points to businesses actively positioning for expanded domestic output.

SONAR Data and Shipper Sentiment Reinforce Industrial Resilience

Complementing the rail strength, FreightWaves SONAR flatbed data shows clear resilience in industrial and construction-related freight.

Flatbed tender rejection rates have remained elevated in recent weeks, frequently exceeding 40% in March — levels well above year-ago figures and indicative of significant capacity tightness in the open-deck segment. The SONAR Flatbed Truckload Volume Index, when adjusted for tender rejections, has averaged 22% higher in March compared to 2025. This reflects notable strength in the spot market for heavy industrial freight.

Spot market momentum is further confirmed by broker-posted data from Truckstop.com. Load postings reached the highest level since June 2022 and ran 26% above the same week in 2025. This strength in posted loads underscores robust underlying demand across equipment types.

SONAR’s National Truckload Index (NTI.USA) — the seven-day moving average of booked dry van spot rates (fuel included) — provides additional depth, showing rates breaking out to new cycle highs in the $3.10 per mile on Friday, the strongest levels since March 2022. Flatbed was even more robust (FTI.USA) hitting the highest levels ever recorded at $3.95 per mile. This spot market strength underscores accelerating carrier pricing power and tightening capacity in the for-hire truckload sector.

Further support for improving freight demand comes from the American Trucking Associations (ATA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, which surged 2.6% in February to 116.2 (2015=100) — its highest level in three years. The index also rose 2.1% year-over-year, the largest annual gain since October 2022. The ATA surveys its own carrier members, who tend to haul more shipper-direct (contract) freight than spot market freight, providing a valuable read on committed, longer-term volumes that often move ahead of spot market trends.

This tightness in flatbed markets — which move heavy industrial goods, steel, building materials, machinery, and construction inputs — aligns closely with the rail report’s signals of improving manufacturing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® reached 52.7% in March (its highest in more than three years), and output rose 1.3% year-over-year in February. Factors such as data center construction, seasonal construction ramp-up, and broader industrial rebound appear to be driving sustained demand for flatbed capacity.

Further confirmation comes from Bank of America’s proprietary bi-weekly Truckload Demand Indicator from its shipper survey. The indicator rose to 60.2 in the latest reading (up from 57.9), marking an 18% increase year-over-year and signaling solid underlying demand for freight heading into the spring shipping season. BoA’s shipper survey, which has tracked the market since 2012, adds strong shipper-level validation to the improving rail and flatbed trends.

FreightWaves SONAR now delivers the most comprehensive view of freight markets through its new rail data dashboard, which features both bulk rail and intermodal volumes. The bulk rail dashboard is specifically designed to give subscribers the most complete picture of freight markets by integrating high-frequency AAR rail data with SONAR’s proprietary truckload, intermodal, and market indices. This allows users to get a comprehensive view of the industrial economy. Visit GoSONAR.com for a trial.

Together, the strong rail carload performance (especially ex-coal and in chemicals), record capital goods imports, elevated flatbed activity, positive shipper sentiment from the BoA survey, ATA tonnage gains, robust spot market load volume from Truckstop.com/FTR and SONAR’s NTI, and SONAR’s integrated rail insights paint a consistent picture: the industrial sector is showing genuine resilience and early signs of expansion heading into Q2.

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI) supports this view, with average Q1 levels reaching their highest in nearly five years, pointing to steady expansion in freight-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, construction inputs, and export-oriented production.

Outlook

Manufacturing activity is improving, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI® at its highest reading in more than three years. Rail traffic, flatbed markets, ATA tonnage, BoA shipper sentiment, spot market load volume strength, capital goods import trends, and SONAR’s new rail data dashboard are converging to confirm that industrial demand is strengthening.

For shippers, carriers, and analysts, these signals from rail carloads and flatbed trucking — all accessible in one integrated platform on SONAR — provide high-frequency confirmation of a broadening industrial recovery as we move into the second quarter.