This year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping extravaganza were record breaking in terms of online sales. Both Thanksgiving and Black Friday showed huge y/y increases in online sales revenue, with 14.5% and 19% increases respectively. The e-commerce giant, Amazon, called this past Monday the biggest shopping day ever. National online sales have grown by double digit percentages every month in 2019 through September according to the monthly Census Bureau reports, while department store revenues have displayed y/y contraction in each month. The impact to trucking has been palpable.
According to the Truckload Carrier’s Association (TCA) the average length of haul for dry van carriers has dropped 8% on average since the fall of 2017, an indication that distribution and production centers are moving closer to the final consumer. What does this mean for carriers moving into 2020?
The rise of e-commerce has been well documented. Most everyone has heard the buzzword or phrase “the Amazon Effect” so many times it has lost all meaning. Love it or hate it, Amazon has created an environment where the consumer expects his or her orders in a day or two, making the traditional brick and mortar experience less alluring. This means if other retailers want to compete, they will need to be up to speed, literally, with the competition.
According to FreightWaves Outbound Tender Volume Index, truckload volumes have been above 2018 levels since late July, averaging roughly 3% higher. A large portion of that increase was in short haul freight moving under 250 miles from origin. Loads moving 1 – 99 miles were up over 15% y/y, while loads that moved 100 – 250 miles were up roughly 8% over 2018 during the same period. Freight that moved in the “tweener” mileage band of 450 to 800 miles declined 5.8% during this period. Effectively, there are now more loads moving with less miles.
Shorter moves do not guarantee lower cost to shippers, nor are they necessarily bad for carriers. Normal truckload pricing contracts include minimum charges on lanes that travel small distances. Normally, anything moving under 200 miles will hit a minimum charge, which varies widely by carrier. The reason for minimums is simple, driver efficiency drops when they are hitting docks and not on the road.
Most truckload carriers charge by the mile due to the fact they pay most of their drivers this way. This allows the carrier to understand their cost drivers more effectively, while also motivating the drivers to travel long distances and drive more often. Short haul moves make this methodology less effective as there is more time spent on a dock proportionate to driving. Carriers do not get paid while they are not moving unless they charge detention, which is mostly only charged when delays are excessive—normally over 1.5 hours.
Problems occur when drivers spend too much time stopped or in transition. They spend more time on non-revenue activities such as unloading or driving to the next load—called “deadheading”. The increase in non-revenue activities is overcome by charging an amount that accounts for the decreased efficiency. The odds of a carrier moving two 250-mile loads in a day under the 11-hour limit in heavy traffic are slim to none. Therefore, they need to charge for the full day in many circumstances.
Some carriers will be able to pull off multiple moves in a day, which can be quite lucrative as their effective rate per mile is much higher under a minimum charge—often presented as a flat all-inclusive rate to make it more palatable.
As mentioned above, shippers are not getting as much bang for their buck with minimum charges, as they are paying more per mile in these lanes. More minimum shipments can mean higher transportation costs. As the domestic transportation sector sees more minimum transactions, carriers and shippers will both need to be more effective in managing their costs due to the less efficient shorter haul moves brought on by the increasing demand for service.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real-time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary live on the front-page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
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