The global ocean freight market is facing a fraught outlook in 2025, a new DHL update finds, characterized by economic headwinds, geopolitical tensions and industry restructuring.
Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2025, the weakest since 2009, excluding the pandemic. The Americas region, including the United States (2%), Canada (1.8%) and Mexico (0.6%), is experiencing the most significant downward revisions to growth forecasts. Despite this challenging backdrop, container volumes have shown resilience. Global container trade grew by 7.7% in 2024, with Asia-Pacific exports, particularly from China, driving much of this expansion. Looking ahead, trade is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2025, with Asia-Pacific export lanes outpacing the global average.
While the U.S. is delaying port fees on Chinese vessels that could have disrupted global shipping, the return to normal Red Sea-Suez Canal operations appears unlikely in 2025 due to ongoing security concerns, leading to potential capacity constraints as the peak season approaches. New alliances are settling, but blanked sailings – scheduled voyages that don’t sail – increased in recent weeks, partly due to port congestion but also as carriers tighten capacity to boost rates, with 9.2% of the global fleet (2.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units) currently idle.
The end of the fragile ceasefire in Gaza has seen Israel and Hamas resume hostilities. The United States military continues to pound Houthi rebel positions inside Yemen, and while there have been no recorded attacks on merchant shipping so far this year, the region is still considered too unstable by major container carriers to resume scheduled services.
The global vessel orderbook has reached a record high, surpassing 9 million TEUs. However, only two-thirds of this new capacity is expected to be delivered before 2028, suggesting a gradual impact on overall fleet size.
Container freight rates have been on a downward trajectory since January, now sitting 75% below their 2021 peak but still above pre-pandemic levels. However, rates are expected to increase in May and June on early peak season volumes, compounded by the continued avoidance of the Suez Canal route.
The market is anticipated to reach a more balanced state, though volatility remains a constant threat. Factors that could disrupt this balance include potential blank sailings due to port congestion, longer transit times from Cape of Good Hope routing, and carriers’ focus on yield management as they settle into new alliance structures.
Port congestion remains a significant challenge, particularly in Europe. As of early April, more than 935,000 TEU of cargo was waiting at North European and Mediterranean anchorages, accounting for 32% of the global total. Key ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam, and Antwerp are experiencing severe congestion and berthing delays.
On a positive note, global schedule reliability improved in February, reaching 54.9%, highest since May 2024. The newly formed Gemini Cooperation of Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) and Hapag-Lloyd (OTC: HPGLY) appears to be well-conceived, achieving an impressive 94% schedule reliability in origin ports during its first month of operations, outdistancing the other alliances.
The ocean freight sector is navigating an increasingly complex regulatory environment. Notable developments include:
- The implementation of the EU’s electronic security screening system (ICS2 Release 3) for ocean, road, and rail freight on April 1, 2025.
- Ongoing changes to U.S. tariff policies, including new tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian goods.
- A proposed 25% tariff on countries importing oil from Venezuela, potentially affecting major economies like China and India.
Perhaps most significantly, the U.S. Trade Representative is delaying implementation of port fees on vessels linked to China after major pushback from carriers and shippers. These fees could total up to $1.5 million per port call for Chinese-built vessels, with additional charges for operators using Chinese-built ships or placing orders with Chinese shipyards. This would have far-reaching consequences for global trade patterns and shipping costs when and if they are implemented.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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