Landstar still waiting for break in freight recession

Broker beats Q1 consensus, Q2 guide falls short

Landstar said Thursday it expects operators to return to its network when volumes and spot rates improve. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Broker Landstar System said it’s readying for an inflection, noting largely normal seasonal trends on its first-quarter call. The fact that it isn’t in cost-cutting mode like the asset-based operators is a bit of a reprieve from the carnage this earnings season has delivered. 

The company beat expectations for the first quarter, but its second-quarter guidance was light of consensus.

Landstar (NASDAQ: LSTR) reported earnings per share of $1.32 for the 2024 first quarter, which was 4 cents ahead of the consensus estimate but 85 cents lower year over year (y/y). The period included some cost headwinds from a reset in variable compensation and expenses related to its CEO transition.

Consolidated revenue of $1.17 billion was 18% lower y/y but came in above the high end of management’s guidance range.

Total loads hauled by truck fell 13% y/y and revenue per load was down 7%. Both metrics were slightly better than the guided range, outperforming historical sequential trends in February and slightly underperforming in March.

On a Thursday call with analysts, management said it is seeing favorable demand in a few industrial-related end markets and noted that flatbed metrics, particularly for heavy-haul freight, are logging more subdued declines than the dry van business.

Table: Landstar’s key performance indicators

Capacity on Landstar’s platform continued to decline in the quarter, but the company believes operators will come back to the network as the market and spot rates improve.

Total truck capacity on the platform was down 21% y/y in the quarter and 6% sequentially. Trucks provided by business capacity owners (BCOs), which are owner-operators who haul almost exclusively for the company, fell 13% y/y (down 4% from the fourth quarter) to 9,410. However, BCO productivity, or loads per truck, was up 3%.

“When there’s opportunity, these guys [BCOs] really flock to Landstar,” said Joe Beacom, chief safety and operations officer, on the call. “As capacity comes out of the market and things turn … I think we’re still the home for owner-operators who want to have the freedom to make decisions and provide for themselves. … As rates and volumes come back, they’ll come back.”

Revenue per mile on BCO loads, which is a cleaner pricing metric as it excludes fuel surcharges, declined 7% y/y on dry van loads and 5% on flatbed loads. Both yield metrics are higher than pre-pandemic levels by 21% and 23%, respectively. However, those gains for owner-operators have been wiped out by higher operating costs.

Chart: (SONAR: NTIL.USA). The National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.

Variable contribution, or revenue less purchased transportation and commissions, declined 19% y/y to $168 million. The variable contribution margin was down just 10 basis points to 14.4%.

Landstar expects second-quarter revenue to be in a range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, a 9% y/y decline at the midpoint but in line with the consensus estimate at the time of the print. Loads hauled by truck are expected to decline between 5% and 9% with revenue per load flat to down 4%.

The y/y comparisons ease as the second quarter progresses.

Through the first three weeks of April, truck volumes have been more in line with normal seasonal trends but revenue per load has slightly underperformed. The guidance calls for a 4% to 8% sequential increase in truck volumes from the first to second quarter (historical average is an 8% increase), with revenue per load in a range of down 1% to up 3% (historical average is up 2%).

So far in April, revenue per load is flat with March (historical average is up 1%).

Second-quarter EPS guidance of $1.35 to $1.55 fell short of the $1.60 consensus estimate.

“The Company is laser-focused on supporting our network of small business owners and executing on our strategic growth initiatives and technology enhancements, Landstar’s new CEO, Frank Lonegro, said in a news release. “We are excited about the future, the new leadership structure of our sales organization and the strength of our balance sheet. Landstar is well positioned to capitalize when freight fundamentals improve.”

Lonegro took the helm in February, succeeding Jim Gattoni, who retired. The company added two new sales roles to its executive team last month.

Shares of LSTR were up 1.3% on Thursday at 10:07 a.m. EDT compared to the S&P 500, which was down 1.5%.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden

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9 Comments

  1. Ben

    I am Landstar I agree with a few of the issues here but I think that Landstar is one of the best out here I do not agree with the amount they take from our settlements but I accepted it and stand by my choice I make money and love my job. If you look hard enough you can find fault with anything

  2. Bill Heche

    Boo hoo, same old story since I started more than 40 years ago. If you want to make money in the trucking business you HAVE to run it like a business. Most owner operators had rather “go fast and look good”. And they wonder why “we ain’t making no money”. Grow up, lose some weight and dress like a professional.

  3. Greg Karnes

    There will not be relief until Biden is kicked out of the office. Our economy is in the bottom of the toilet. Just three years ago, during the Trump years. My revenues averaged between 27 to 32 per month. Today I am lucky to clear 11 a month. These people are destroying our country by hyper inflationary spending. At the end of 2020 a gallon of diesel was 2.10 a gallon today over 4 a gallon or more. The rates sure as hell haven’t doubled to offset the increases in everything. Has it.. #TRUMP2024 🇺🇸

  4. Jaime

    There is a large disconnect between what is being said and what is actually occurring. Landstar is currently squeezing BCO’s for everything they can get out of them. They are going through old freight bills and making adjustments for accessorials that were paid out. They are also going back and charging BCO’s for getting their equipment inspected after the 120 day deadline. This same deadline is not enforced on company managed equipment. BCO’s are struggling due to higher operating costs and lower rates and Landstar is piling on. They are looking for anything to increase their bottom line, even if it’s at the BCO’s expense.

  5. F rank

    the company more about their agents than their BCO The agents have cost me between 15 and 20000 dollars and lost revenues, and the company could care less. I know I would never work form.Nor recommend them to anybody for any reashall.Be
    Careful if you deal with landstar

  6. Ex bco

    Landstar it’s loosing BCOs because what they charge its not realistic. To run for them it’s better not to run at all. That 35% it’s an outrageous amount off the load. If I have to do all the work of getting loads. Then a 15% would do better for the drivers. Yes the double brokering it’s obscene too.

  7. Robert H

    I drive 4 landstar. The disconnect between drivers and the company is honestly appreciation. Why? If the base rate for incoming drivers is 65% of load value, 100% fuel Surcharge. Using l/star trailers. Why would anyone feel appreciated still making the same rate 10+ years later? I’m not saying to not have a limit bit for Godsake if you value loyalty, SHOW IT! Let the max take be 70% and give a driver .5% more every year for 10 years. You want to address turnover? You want loyalty? Respect your Veteran drivers

Comments are closed.

Todd Maiden

Based in Richmond, VA, Todd is the finance editor at FreightWaves. Prior to joining FreightWaves, he covered the TLs, LTLs, railroads and brokers for RBC Capital Markets and BB&T Capital Markets. Todd began his career in banking and finance before moving over to transportation equity research where he provided stock recommendations for publicly traded transportation companies.