It’s hurry up and wait for Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern.
The Surface Transportation Board gave the railroads until July 27 – or longer – to submit more information after it conditionally accepted the partners’ revised merger application.
But formal review of the deal to create the first transcontinental freight railroad won’t begin until that time.
“The STB paused the UNP/NSC review, noting that the refiled application is accepted but narrowly meets completeness standards,” said TD Cowen analysts in a research note. “Best case, close shifts towards late Fall 2027.”
The research team of Jason Seidl, Elliott Alper and Uday Khanapurkar said that the orders confirm that review “will be discovery-led and consider administrative burden on the Board and commenters.
“We believe the STB’s actions demonstrate that the Board is not viewing the process as necessarily application-centric and is committed to a thorough discovery.”
UP (NYSE: UNP) Chief Executive Jim Vena hasn’t been fazed by the delays, pounding the drum that his company’s acquisition of NS (NYSE: NSC) will eliminate time-sucking interchanges make rail competitive with trucking’s four-day transit time coast-to-coast. He also believes the deal will convert 2.1 million truckloads of freight each year from truck to rail.
But the analysts also said the deficient data represents a significant burden for both the regulator and observers trying to sort out the merger’s effects.
The new deadline suggests a further delay in the process of at least two months, Cowen said.
“The STB has indicated that it would allow a 30-day extension to this deadline if requested by UNP/NSC due to the amount of data they are requesting. This pushes the potential merger close to well into the Fall of 2027 in the best case scenario, assuming the application passes review with few other snags.”
The analysts noted that the STB expressed skepticism towards the merger’s proposed committed gateway pricing, to maintain competitive access at key locations.
“The Board highlighted that CGP applies to a very limited subset of traffic, excluding large categories like intermodal, autos, and unit trains, and would only run for a finite oversight period. It also raised concerns that CGP could unintentionally weaken competition in certain lanes by altering pricing dynamics rather than meaningfully expanding rail-to-rail options.
“The STB is asking for more information on who benefits, who is excluded, and whether the program actually generates net public gains.
BNSF Chief Executive Katie Farmer expressed this exact sentiment in public comments at a rail industry event reported by FreightWaves.
The analysts noted that the STB also is demanding a facility-by-facility rundown and proposed remedies of shippers whose rail options will shrink from three to two or two to one.
“The concern is that even an “end-to-end” merger can still increase market power through reduced routing flexibility or geographic competition, especially in constrained corridors or at key interchange points,” they said.
The railroads are on notice to comply with the STB’s demands or risk further delay. The markets took a dim view of the approval, as a sell-off cost the companies about $12 billion in merger value.
“We view this decision as a clear sign that the STB is taking its review of the merger with tremendous care and will continue to push for as much information as possible to allow it to make an informed decision,” Cowen said.
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Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
Related coverage:
How rail mega-merger moved ahead, and STB avoided making history
STB conditionally accepts UP-NS rail merger application, wants more data
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