Freight shipments fell sharply in October but higher rates kept total freight spend in check, according to a monthly report from Cass Information Systems.
Cass’ multimodal shipments index fell 4.3% from September (down 2.1% seasonally adjusted) to the worst October reading since 2009. The dataset was off 7.8% year over year, an acceleration from a 5.4% y/y decline in September.
| October 2025 | y/y | 2-year | m/m | m/m (SA) |
| Shipments | -7.8% | -10.0% | -4.3% | -2.1% |
| Expenditures | -0.2% | -6.1% | -3.9% | -2.1% |
| TL Linehaul Index | 3.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | NM |
The Thursday report said shippers are continuing to consolidate smaller loads into full truckloads to counter rising less-than-truckload pricing, despite overall soft demand. October’s weakness was shared by LTL carrier management teams during third-quarter calls. Some acknowledged the modal shift while also pinning the lower volumes on continued softness in the industrial and housing markets.
The Cass report flagged the potential for a 10% y/y decline in shipments during November if typical seasonal trends occur. That would be the largest y/y decline since August 2023. It said the “demand air pockets are likely to continue,” noting a pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs would influence the cost of consumer goods and, consequently, future freight demand.
The volume weakness weighed on Cass’ freight expenditures index, which measures total freight spend, including fuel. The index fell 3.9% from September (down 2.1% seasonally adjusted) and was off 0.2% compared to last year.
With volumes off 7.8% y/y in October but expenditures down just 0.2%, the report said actual freight rates were likely 8.2% higher y/y in the month (flat with September when seasonally adjusted). (However, Cass is assessing the impact of a changing freight mix toward TL and has paused releasing its inferred rate data.)
The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, increased 1.1% sequentially and 3% y/y. The dataset has logged y/y increases in every month this year.
“Some of the recent increase may be temporary, and as pre-tariff activity fades, truckload spot trends have softened in early November,” the report said.
Truck capacity continues to contract as carrier bankruptcies mount and operating margins at even the best-in-class fleets are at “generational lows,” forcing them to dial down equipment investment, Cass said. While also noting unit count declines at private fleets, it said much of 2026 hinges on “the affordability reductions that tariffs are beginning to impose on U.S. consumers.”
Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $36 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.
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