Is Tesla’s truck goal really a battery leasing program?
Morgan Stanley analysts think such a program could be worth $750B a year
As speculation mounts about what Elon Musk is planning with his electric Class 8 truck, set for a September debut, more analysts are weighing in on possible motives.
Two Morgan Stanley analysts, who closely follow Tesla, see the creation of an electric semi not as an end goal, but rather as an entry into a $750 billion a year battery leasing business. It also could be a financial boon to trucking companies in fuel savings and reduce range anxiety, one factor that has limited sales of medium-duty electric trucks.
“We believe [Tesla] could sell its autonomous, electric semis without batteries, which would then be separately leased to customers,” wrote analysts Adam Jonas and Ravi Shanker, according to a report on the research note by Electrek. “With a [approximately a] 250-300 mile range, these batteries could then be swapped out at battery swapping stations … built at Tesla Supercharging stations and truck stops around the country.”
I agree with some negative comments about the Tesla semi program, however their secret weapon is swapping, where enormous number of batteries on each vehicle won’t be necessary. There are also plans to separate trucks from battery business, which will also attract operators. They already have a respected network of stations, where adding an extra swapping one won’t pose much of a problem. Moreover, their battery giga-factory could easily supply their battery leasing business…that’s where the big money will be. He’s just copying Polaroid cameras, Inkjet printers and similar business models.