China-US container trade trending down as peak season nears

U.S. imports edged up in May

Pier 400, Port of Los Angeles.
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Despite a global record in May container volume (16.34 million TEUs), China-US container traffic is declining, showing a significant drop in projected imports for late July and early August.
  • The Port of Los Angeles shows a concerning decrease in projected import volume for the week of July 27th to August 2nd, down 35% week-over-week and 22% year-over-year.
  • The SONAR Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, China to the US, also fell, indicating reduced container volume booked with ocean carriers.
  • While global exports from the Far East were up in May, North American exports saw a significant drop, suggesting weakening demand in the region.
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Indicators of China-U.S. container traffic are trending down even as the peak shipping season draws closer.

On Monday the Port of Los Angeles Port Optimizer showed 128,720 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) import volume due in July 13-19, up 8.68% from the past week and 13.23% ahead of the year-ago week. 

That’s the good news.

More troubling, the port is showing 120,072 TEUs arriving the week of July 20-26, down 6.72% w/w and 11.47% y/y. Worse yet, projected import volume for July 27-August 2 plunges to 78,025 TEUs, a decrease of 35.02% w//w and 22.10% from a year ago.

(Chart: Port Optimizer)

Similarly, the SONAR Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, China to the United States, fell to 929.53 as of Monday.

The Ocean TEU Index represents how much containerized volume is being tendered to ocean carriers (booked) with ocean carriers and/or 3rd party logistics companies (freight forwarders/ NVOCCs). 

Arrow points to current index. (Chart: SONAR)

 The decline comes as global container volumes reached a record 16.34 million TEUs in May, breaking the previous record of 16.31 million TEUs set in March of this year, according to Container Trade Statistics. 

Total exports from the Far East region grew 3% y/y in May, most in the world, on record traffic to Europe. Notably, North America and Central and South America saw export volumes tumble from April, off 9.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

Imports in April to May were stronger as North America saw a 2% increase year-to-date, even as May volumes fell 9%. Europe containers were up 10% in May y/y.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Stuart Chirls

Stuart Chirls is a journalist who has covered the full breadth of railroads, intermodal, container shipping, ports, supply chain and logistics for Railway Age, the Journal of Commerce and IANA. He has also staffed at S&P, McGraw-Hill, United Business Media, Advance Media, Tribune Co., The New York Times Co., and worked in supply chain with BASF, the world's largest chemical producer. Reach him at stuartchirls@firecrown.com.