Zipline drone delivery takes flight in Texas with Walmart – for free

After hundreds of thousands of test flights and years of piloting drone delivery in the U.S., Zipline has officially taken flight in the Dallas-Fort Worth area with partner Walmart.

The world’s largest drone delivery provider announced Tuesday that residents located within 2 miles of a Walmart Supercenter in the suburb of Mesquite are eligible for delivery of more than 65,000 items in 30 minutes or less. Zipline told FLYING magazine the first order in Mesquite included a dozen eggs, a bag of Popcorners chips and flower bulbs for spring gardening. The company said Walmart (NYSE: WMT) will set the price of the service, which at launch is available for free.

The launch also marks the introduction of Zipline’s Platform 2 (P2) delivery system, a successor to its P1 designed for quiet, precise delivery in cities and suburbs – even in rain or 45 mph gusts of wind.

According to Zipline CEO Keller Rinaudo Clifton, the service delivers 10 times faster than cars, with flight times for most orders under two minutes. Clifton said customers in Mesquite, who participated in a “secret” early access program over the past few months, have described the offering as “quiet,” “gentle” and “magical.”

“We’ve been blown away by the feedback from our early customers,” said Conner Wilkinson, head of community engagement at Zipline, in a statement accompanying Tuesday’s announcement. “In just a few weeks, we’ve already become a part of people’s daily routines, especially for busy parents like myself, older adults, and anyone else who wants to spend more time doing things they love and less time running errands.”

Tuesday’s launch, though, “significantly” expands the number of customers who can order delivery, Zipline said. Customers can download the Zipline app or visit the company’s website to see if their household is eligible – that includes multifamily dwellings such as apartment complexes. Once signed up, they can place orders between 10 a.m. and 8 p.m. CDT on weekdays and 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. on weekends.

On Saturday from noon to 3 p.m., Zipline will host a public event at the Mesquite Supercenter to share more information about the service.

“We’re seeing the dawn of a new era of robotic instant logistics that is going to become an indispensable part of our lives,” Clifton wrote in a post on X. “After 4 years and hundreds of thousands of test flights, teleportation is finally here.”

A long time coming

Since its first deployment in 2016, Zipline has completed nearly 1.5 million deliveries. In March, the firm revealed that its all-electric drones have collectively flown more than 100 million miles, which it said is equivalent to driving on every road in the United States 24 times. But before this week, it had yet to break into the U.S. home delivery market.

Other than a pilot program with Walmart in Arkansas, launched in 2021, Zipline has focused heavily on long-range deliveries of medical cargo, including blood and lifesaving vaccines, to rural, hard-to-reach places in Sub-Saharan Africa – countries such as Rwanda, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya. In Rwanda, for example, it delivers 75% of the country’s blood supply outside the capital, Kigali. In the U.S., it is partnering with health care providers such as Cleveland Clinic, Mayo Clinic and Intermountain Health, with which it launched a service in Utah in 2022.

Recently, Zipline has looked to diversify. Last year, Walmart announced plans to offer drone delivery to 1.8 million households in DFW, where the FAA in June lifted certain restrictions for Zipline and fellow Walmart partner Wing. It is one of a handful of drone operators with Part 135 air carrier permissions and authorized for operations beyond the visual line of sight of the pilot. The launch of home delivery in Mesquite heightens the firm’s competition with Wing, which has made about 450,000 residential deliveries since 2012.

It also introduces P2, designed for urban delivery with what Clifton has described as “dinner plate-level” precision.

Announced in 2023, P2 actually comprises two aircraft: a drone and a smaller “Zip” that is designed to stow inside it. Unlike the fixed-wing P1 aircraft – which launches like a glider and has a round-trip range of 120 square miles – P2 drones have a 10-square-mile service radius and take off vertically using five propellers before transitioning to winged cruise. They are also slightly faster and can carry 8 pounds of cargo, compared to 6 pounds for P1.

The key to P2, though, is the Zip. The autonomous, microwave-size droid is deployed from the drone on a tether, using onboard fans and sensors to guide itself to hard-to-reach landing spots, such as a customer’s doorstep. After cargo is released, the tether spools back up, and the Zip stows away. Recent upgrades have made both aircraft resistant to heat, downpours and “gale-force winds.” The company is also testing the “Zipping Point,” an easy-installation curbside mailbox designed to autonomously load packages in seconds.

Zipline made its first P2 delivery in January to an unspecified fire department. In the next few weeks, it will add Waxahatchee as the second P2 site in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with plans to scale its presence in the area “significantly” over the next five months, the company told FLYING.

Zipline’s Dallas-Fort Worth launch comes just months after Walmart parted ways with longtime collaborator DroneUp, which at one point operated 36 hubs across seven states. That leaves Zipline and Wing to pick up the slack. Competitor Amazon Prime Air, meanwhile, returned to action last week after a voluntary two-month pause in service.

Breaking down Walmart’s 2022 in drone delivery

Container rates see uptick as tariffs shock supply chain

The upheaval in global trade following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements is sending shockwaves through international markets and supply chains.

But that’s been good news, however temporary, for container rates that had been trending down for some time, analyst Freightos said in its weekly update.

At the forefront of this trade war escalation is China, now facing a staggering minimum duty of 54% on all goods exported to the U.S., with some items subject to over 70%, and as much as 129%, in tariffs, after a new 50% duty announced by the White House Wednesday. This dramatic increase compounds existing Trump and Biden-era duties, creating a formidable barrier for Chinese exporters and U.S. importers alike.

The ripple effects of these policy changes extend far beyond U.S.-China trade relations, said Freightos research chief Judah Levine, in the update. Many Asian countries that had previously benefited from trade diversion are now also subject to steep tariffs. This shift is forcing importers to reevaluate their sourcing strategies and supply chain configurations.

In response to the U.S. measures, China has already announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Other major trading partners, including Canada and the EU, are considering or implementing their own countermeasures. This tit-for-tat approach threatens to further destabilize global trade flows and increase the likelihood of a broader economic recession.

The immediate impact on ocean freight has been swift. Shippers scrambled to load final shipments before the new tariffs took effect, leading to a short-term surge in demand for container space and even shifts to less-than-containerload (LCL) and air cargo options. However, this burst of activity is expected to give way to a significant drop in container demand to the U.S. in the coming months.

For the week that ended on Friday, Asia-U.S. West Coast container rates increased 3% to $2,246 per forty-foot equivalent units, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. Asia-U.S. East Coast prices increased 5% to $3,541 per FEU.

Looking ahead, the Port of Los Angeles anticipates a 10% decrease in volume for the second half of the year. This decline could be exacerbated by growing overcapacity in the container market, along with a recession potentially leading to a collapse in freight rates reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis.

Indeed, as capacity continues to grow from newbuild introductions on the major trade lanes, even with Red Sea diversions continuing to absorb capacity, rates out of Asia have fallen sharply since Lunar New Year, with container prices now beneath their 2024 floor.

Rates rebounded by a few hundred dollars per FEU on the trans-Pacific on start-of-month general rate increases last week, though no bump came through for Asia-Europe lanes, as carriers increase capacity management efforts. The expected tariff-driven drop in demand will only put more downward pressure on rates.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

Related coverage:

US threatens retaliation over carbon tax on ocean shipping
United States reverses course on proposed port fees for Chinese ships

Ocean shipping carbon tax could gouge US consumers, say opponents

Expect ‘subdued’ peak container season in wake of tariffs, says analyst

Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10%, except on China

In a continuing whirlwind of policy changes, President Donald Trump on Wednesday dropped tariffs under his new trade plan to 10% on imports from most countries for 90 days.

Trump also said in a social media post that he was raising tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125%.

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable,” Trump wrote.

He unveiled a broad “reciprocal” tariff plan for all U.S. trade partners April 2, including a baseline 10% tariff on trade partners, as well as 25% tariffs on certain imported vehicles and auto parts arriving into the U.S.

The wide-ranging reciprocal tariff policy went into effect at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, including various levies on imports from about 90 U.S. trading partners.

More than 75 countries have contacted U.S. officials to negotiate a solution to trade tariffs, according to Trump.

Tariffs hit 100-year high: Ports, drayage, trucking and retail impacts | WHAT THE TRUCK?!?

On episode 824 of WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Dooner is waking up with the rest of the world to the new tariff world order. With reports of ocean bookings plummeting, small shippers getting hit with customs bills they can’t afford, and financial markets in disarray – how bad will freight get hit?

Junction Collaborative Transport COO Ian Weiland brings the port trucking perspective as his drayage firm services the SoCal ports. We will find out what the word on the ground is and will ocean volume declines drive the truck load market back into a freight recession?

Eric Williams just founded a FreightTech firm focused on RFPs called Beagl Technologies. Williams also just left a gig with Target’s logistics team. We’ll get deep insight on how retail will handle tariffs. We’ll also find out how Beagl plans to shake up the RFP process, and how freight bids are looking now.

Catch new shows live at noon EDT Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays on FreightWaves LinkedIn, Facebook, X or YouTube, or on demand by looking up WHAT THE TRUCK?!? on your favorite podcast player and at 5 p.m. Eastern on SiriusXM’s Road Dog Trucking Channel 146.

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Walmart pulls full-year guidance, insists it will gain share

In a surprising move, retail giant Walmart announced Wednesday that it is withdrawing its earnings and revenue guidance for the current fiscal year, citing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s newly imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. The decision comes as the world’s largest retailer grapples with the potential impact of escalating trade tensions on its bottom line.

On Feb. 20, America’s largest retailer had called for net sales growth of 3%-4% and adjusted operating income growth of 3.5%-5.5% for fiscal year 2026.

The retraction of financial forecasts is a rare step for Walmart, known for its stable and predictable performance. This move underscores the far-reaching consequences of the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, which has sent shockwaves through global markets and supply chains.

Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey stated in a press release, “Given the fluidity of the current trade environment and the potential for further tariffs, we believe it’s prudent to withdraw our earnings guidance at this time.” He added that the company remains committed to providing updated forecasts as soon as it can reasonably assess the impact of the tariffs on its business.

Approximately two-thirds of the goods Walmart sells in the United States are grown, made or assembled in the U.S., with products of Chinese and Mexican origin dominating the remaining third.

The Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods, which now cover a wide range of consumer products, pose a significant challenge for retailers like Walmart that rely heavily on imports from China. The tariffs are expected to increase costs for many everyday items, potentially forcing retailers to either absorb these costs or pass them on to consumers through higher prices.

Interestingly, the tariffs may also have unintended consequences for some of Walmart’s competitors, particularly emerging e-commerce players like Temu and Shein. These companies, known for their ultra-low prices, have been rapidly gaining market share by sourcing products directly from Chinese manufacturers and selling them to U.S. consumers at steep discounts.

The new tariffs could level the playing field between Walmart and these upstart competitors. Temu and Shein may find it challenging to maintain their price advantage as the cost of importing goods from China rises. This could provide an opportunity for Walmart to reclaim some of the market share it has lost to these aggressive newcomers.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding specific earnings numbers, Walmart’s management team remains optimistic about the company’s ability to navigate these challenges and even grow its market share. CEO Doug McMillon emphasized the company’s scale and diversified supply chain as key advantages in weathering the storm.

“We have a long history of adapting to changing market conditions,” McMillon said during a call with investors. “Our size and relationships with suppliers give us the flexibility to source products from multiple countries and regions. This puts us in a strong position to mitigate the impact of tariffs and continue offering competitive prices to our customers.”

Walmart’s confidence stems from its ongoing investments in e-commerce, grocery delivery and in-store technology. These initiatives have helped the company stay relevant in the face of fierce competition from Amazon and other online retailers. The company believes that its omnichannel approach, combining physical stores with a robust online presence, will continue to resonate with consumers even in an uncertain economic environment.

Moreover, Walmart’s management team points to the company’s track record of thriving during economic downturns. They argue that in times of financial uncertainty, consumers often turn to value-oriented retailers like Walmart, potentially driving increased foot traffic and sales.

The retraction of earnings guidance has sent ripples through the retail sector, with many investors and analysts viewing Walmart as a bellwether for the industry. Other major retailers are now under pressure to reassess their own financial forecasts and strategies for dealing with the tariff situation.

Walmart’s decision to withdraw its guidance reflects the high level of uncertainty facing businesses in the current geopolitical climate. As the retail giant adapts its strategies to this new reality, it remains to be seen how successful it will be in maintaining its market position and protecting its margins.

As recession fears grow, so do expectations of plunging freight demand

Imports may fall sharply in second half

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said he expects at least a 10% year-over-year drop in container volume at the port in the second half. I found that to be especially noteworthy because his comments seemed to be a departure from his more bullish remarks in previous months.

Seroka expects a drop in import volume to be driven by the aftermath of a pull-forward as shippers worked to get ahead of tariffs the past several months – an option primarily available only to large shippers. That pull-forward led to port volumes that were about 15% higher in recent months than what is normal. Now, inventories appear to be getting bloated, particularly in upstream locations such as California’s Inland Empire. An executive at Flexport recently said the warehouses it operates went from being about 50% full to about 75% full. As the year progresses, shippers will look to reduce inventory of 2025 model-year items in preparation for the rollout of 2026 merchandise.

Daily ocean bookings for U.S. imports have started to trend down in recent days. While April is typically a slow month, the drop in the coming weeks may be unusually severe. (Chart: SONAR)

The SONAR chart above, which measures ocean shipments at the point of overseas origin, shows how much more difficult the year-over-year comp becomes starting in June and July. The implication for the domestic freight markets is that carriers may see a commensurate drop in rail intermodal and truckload demand originating from port cities, particularly those that are heavily dependent on imports, such as Savannah, Georgia. Along similar lines, some analysts also expect a lackluster peak season for container shipping.

Ocean spot rates for China-to-U.S. lanes are around their lowest levels since the start of the Red Sea attacks. (Chart: SONAR)

De minimis exemption revoked for Chinese e-commerce shipments

I found this FreightWaves article to be a helpful and detailed update on the removal of the de minimis exemption, which promises to have major impacts on the apparel, airfreight and parcel industries. The latest is that President Donald Trump ordered an end to the duty-free treatment of small-dollar shipments from China and Hong Kong, effective May 2. At that time, low-value goods will be subject to all duties imposed on Chinese goods, including all the newly unveiled tariffs. In addition, items sent through the international postal system will no longer qualify for the de minimis exemption.

The large Chinese e-commerce companies, such as Shein and Temu, don’t use postal channels in bulk because of slow delivery times and reliability issues. For now, the de minimis exemption remains in place for other countries, but that may change once officials are confident Customs and Border Protection is set up to process and collect tariffs globally for low-value items.

Air cargo rates from Shanghai have finally fallen to pre-pandemic levels. (Chart: SONAR)

The Stockout show

(Image: FWTV)

On Monday’s The Stockout show, I discussed the reactions to “Liberation Day” by the consumer packaged goods and retail industries. The CPG industry, through the Consumer Brands Association (CBA), argues that most of its products are already manufactured domestically and the industry already sources inputs and ingredients from domestic sources when possible. However, numerous ingredients can only be sourced internationally because they are reliant on specific growing conditions. So, the CBA wants the administration to fine-tune its approach to exempt certain ingredients.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation expects sales growth in 2025 to be no better, and likely worse, than last year. It argues that the retail industry has faced high tariffs for many years that disproportionately impact the apparel industry. Despite those fees, less than 3% of apparel is made in the U.S., providing evidence that even higher tariffs won’t bring back manufacturing. Monday’s show is available on The Stockout YouTube channel.

US threatens retaliation over carbon tax on ocean shipping

The United States is threatening to take action against nations that agree to a global carbon tax on ocean shipping.

Member states of the International Maritime Organization are meeting in London this week to discuss an agreement on decarbonization of seagoing vessels by 2050.

The IMO has proposed a per-ship penalty of as much as $150 per ton of particulate emissions. Supporters say this is the most effective means to narrow the cost gap between diesel and alternative fuels such as methanol, ammonia and liquefied natural gas. Opponents claim those charges could double fuel prices for container ships and raise costs for the United States, the world’s largest market for containerized imports.

Washington in a statement to IMO members called the carbon tax an economic burden that would drive global inflation, and called for a halt to negotiations by the United Nations agency. The statement threatened reciprocal measures against nations that agree to the tax but did not offer further details.

The U.S., which is not attending the meeting, had been a longtime proponent of the decarbonization plan, most recently under the Biden administration.

At the same time, the IMO was reportedly losing support for its proposal amid efforts by China and Middle East nations that favor a cap-and-trade system of credits over a carbon tax.

The U.S. statement was first reported by Lloyd’s List.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

Ocean shipping carbon tax could gouge US consumers, say opponents

Expect ‘subdued’ peak container season in wake of tariffs, says analyst

Port of LA’s Seroka says tariffs to cut container volumes by 10%

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Past as prologue: Packaging industry fears repeat of 2018-19 tariffs’ impact

The packaging industry doesn’t make a lot of the products you buy. It makes a lot of the products you buy deliverable.

And that takes materials – lots of materials: paperboard, plastic, steel and aluminum, to name a few.

So it’s not surprising that stakeholders are more than a little nervous about President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs, which stand to boost the prices not only of finished products but of materials used to manufacture packaging for everything from soft drinks to chemical containers.

“The recent tariffs have led to industry-wide price increases, directly affecting global suppliers that serve U.S. customers,” packaging supply company Evergreen wrote in a blog post on Thursday. “Domestic suppliers, who often rely on imported raw materials like aluminum and steel, are also affected. For instance, new tariffs are projected to add $22.4 billion to the cost of steel and aluminum imports, impacting various industries, including packaging.”

Lessons from recent history

Even if the full impact of the new tariffs is not yet clear, packaging manufacturers don’t have to look far into the past to find a basis for concern.

The trade war between the U.S. and China in 2018-2019, when the first Trump administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, “reshaped cost structures, supply chains, and long-term strategies,” Mohamed Dabo writes in an article for online news outlet Packaging Gateway.

As with the current tariff regimen, the previous levies were intended to bring more manufacturing back to U.S. soil – a goal that according to Dabo went largely unmet, at least in the packaging industry. That was partly because despite surging aluminum and steel prices resulting from the tariffs, there was too little production capacity domestically to meet demand.

“US production of aluminium, for instance, couldn’t keep up with the growing need for packaging products, particularly in the beverage sector,” Dabo writes. “As a result, packaging firms continued to rely on imports, but at significantly higher prices due to the tariffs.”

And packaging companies in the United States did not significantly reduce their reliance on nations including Italy and Germany that have long been leaders in specialized packaging machinery.

U.S. exports were affected as well. China’s retaliatory tariffs hit American agricultural goods and, thus, the need for packaging for agricultural exports. “The knock-on effect was felt throughout the entire packaging value chain,” Dabo writes.

Frequently, packaging firms could not pass on to consumers the rising costs related to the trade war, cutting into profits.

Anticipated impacts

With regard to the current tariffs, a few of the impacts on the packaging industry, according to Evergreen, include:

Increases in the cost of metal food cans, beverage cans and metal closures.
Effects on prices of both raw materials and finished products in the industrial chemicals sector, “particularly in the production of metal drums, chemical cans, and aerosol cans used for chemical storage and transport.”
Higher costs for breweries and the beverage alcohol industry as a whole because of a 25% tariff on imported canned beer and empty aluminum cans.

Strategies for staying profitable

Evergreen recommends that packaging companies anticipate rising prices, supply gaps and extended wait times. They should be flexible in sourcing materials and should partner with suppliers that are staying on top of the rapid changes in tariff policies.

Dabo also points to agility and resilience as crucial. Some businesses, he writes, reconfigured their supply chains and embraced automation to defray higher costs in the wake of the 2018-19 trade war.

“Companies that were able to pivot and diversify their sourcing strategies, forge new supplier relationships, and quickly adjust their pricing models have been able to weather the storm,” he adds. “Those that were slow to adapt, however, continue to struggle under the weight of higher costs and a fragmented global supply chain.”

Is the future of packaging reusable?

4 SONAR charts to watch for tariff impacts

Following the most recent escalation of the U.S.-China trade war – in which levies on Chinese goods rose to 104% – carriers and shippers alike are wondering how domestic freight flows will be affected.

Here’s how to know the score in just four easy charts:

Maritime: Rough seas ahead

SONAR: Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, all global ports to U.S. ports: 2025 (white), 2024 (blue), 2023 (pink) and 2022 (green).
**To learn more about SONAR**, ***click here***.

Since recovering from February’s lull caused by Lunar New Year, ocean bookings have been remarkably strong this year. While the volume of twenty-foot equivalent units headed to U.S. shores is not quite in line with the barn-burning 2022, bookings averaged 2.7% higher year over year in the first quarter of 2025 and are presently up 5.6% y/y.

Keep in mind that the span between booking and unlading is roughly six weeks – including lead times, delays at the port of origin and/or discharge, and, of course, the actual transit.

Also, the above chart reflects a 14-day moving average of bookings based on their estimated date of departure — a look at bookings based on the date they were made already betrays a fairly substantial decline.

In other words, the strength in bookings today will not translate into domestic freight volumes until May at the earliest.

There is a growing concern among analysts, however, that this performance was achieved by robbing Peter to pay Paul. Shippers have been bracing for these tariffs since the reelection of President Donald Trump last November, which has led to a massive frontloading of imports.

As can be seen in the above chart, maritime’s peak season does not usually ramp up until late summer.

Gene Seroka, executive director at the Port of Los Angeles, has predicted that volumes at the United States’ busiest port will decline 10% y/y in the back half of 2025 because of this pull-forward effect. Freightos’ analysis has similarly forecast a “subdued” peak season this year.

If booking volumes remain at today’s levels over the coming months – or, more improbably, if a typical peak season rally transpires – it will keep domestic freight markets stable.

If, on the other hand, bookings start to tumble as they did in 2022, it will likely spell another trucking recession just as the industry is struggling to recover from the previous one.

Intermodal: Eating truckload’s lunch

SONAR: Total U.S. outbound loaded intermodal volume: 2025 (white), 2024 (blue), 2023 (pink) and 2022 (green).
**To learn more about SONAR**, ***click here***.

Rail intermodal has gained massively at the expense of dry van truckload volumes and looks to continue doing so for the foreseeable future.

The two primary reasons behind intermodal’s gain in market share are time and cost. Intermodal volume has risen massively along certain dense corridors, such as those transcontinental lanes outbound from Los Angeles where intermodal has a distinct cost advantage over long-haul trucking.

On a per-mile basis, the national average dry van contract rate stands at $2.33. The average intermodal rate is 30% cheaper at $1.62.

But time is the other key factor at play.

The tariff-induced frontloading of imports has all but eliminated the time sensitivity of many shipments. If imports are not lingering in coastal warehouses, shippers are slow-walking them on the rails, which serves as a means of stashing inventory without renting warehousing space at exorbitant rates.

Rail carriers have also gone some way to improve their service after the catastrophic failures of recent years, making this mode more viable for shippers.

All in all, loaded intermodal volumes are up 9.9% y/y. If this growth continues over the coming months, it will be an ominous sign for truckload demand, especially the dry van and long-haul segments.

Truckload: Having its lunch eaten

SONAR: Outbound Tender Volume Index: 2025 (white), 2024 (blue), 2023 (pink) and 2022 (green).
**To learn more about SONAR**, ***click here***.

If you can remember how the truckload market fared in 2023, you’ll know that any comparisons made with that year are unfavorable, to say the least.

Unfortunately, 2023 is an apt benchmark for how truckload demand is currently performing. Although last year saw some impressive growth in freight volumes – even outshining 2022 for a few weeks – 2025 has seen a major regression, thanks in part to intermodal’s aforementioned growth.

It goes without saying that demand is highest when shippers need freight to move quickly to its final destination. But given the sheer abundance of inventory that is loitering in warehouses or on the rails, no such urgency is being felt.

That said, early April is a historically soft period for truckload demand, as bulky durable goods for the summer shopping season – think outdoor furniture and the like – are not yet being moved closer to consumption centers.

Still, the market is suffering from weak demand even after accounting for seasonal trends: National dry van volumes are down 9.5% y/y at present.

Unlike the ocean market, the domestic truckload market will likely see a peak season to some degree, given the fact that certain freight is simply not suitable for the rails. But the strength of this peak will depend mostly on the continued health of the U.S. consumer, which is precarious – as it has been, albeit, for several years.

Moreover, any market tightness that will result from this peak season will probably be localized to certain regions and equipment types, unlike the broad rally of 2020-21.

Rates: A fistful of reasons to hope

SONAR: National Truckload Index, Linehaul Only: 2025 (white), 2024 (blue), 2023 (pink) and 2022 (green).
**To learn more about SONAR**, ***click here***.

Yet just because the forecast for truckload demand looks grim, that doesn’t mean carriers are sure to suffer.

The main reason behind FreightWaves’ calling for an industry recovery in 2024 was the much-needed shedding of excess capacity from the marketplace – a trend that has continued into 2025.

Tender rejection rates, which track trucking capacity relative to demand, have been shockingly stable in recent months. At the time of writing, carriers are rejecting 6.09% of loads moving under contract, which usually implies their confidence in securing spot-market alternatives at higher rates.

Compare this level to 2024, when only 3.61% of contracted loads were being rejected, or even 2023’s 2.87%. Needless to say, the pricing power pendulum is swinging back into carriers’ favor.

Looking at all-in spot rates, however, this shift might not be apparent: The National Truckload Index (NTI) is trending unfavorably in line with 2023-24. But this reading is mostly caused by the declining cost of diesel, retail prices for which have fallen 10.3% y/y.

Ignoring the impact of fuel, then, spot rates are up 10 cents per mile, or 6.2% y/y.

The future of linehaul spot rates depends almost entirely on the rate at which excess capacity continues to leave the market, given that demand is, at best, likely to be stable around current levels.

There is some indication that the rate of carrier exits has slowed: In March, new trucking authorities exceeded those terminated, disrupting a nearly three-year string of net departures.

Furthermore, used truck prices have bounced off their recent lows and have partially stabilized, implying that carriers are eager to get off the sidelines and get back into the game – a worrisome prospect for rates if demand remains stagnant.

At the end of the day, however, linehaul spot rates will move with tender rejections, which have yet to show signs of returning to the lows of 2023-24.