Significant shifts in the container shipping marked by record-breaking capacity and unexpected rate increases are pointing to potential severe near-term disruptions.
Capacity from the Far East to North Europe is set to reach an all-time high in mid-April, according to data from analyst Xeneta. This surge surpasses the previous record set during the height of pandemic disruptions in November 2021, when capacity hit 336,800 twenty-foot equivalent units.
Simultaneously, average spot rates on this route had increased by 4.8% as of Tuesday, reaching $2,457 per forty-foot equivalent unit. The Mediterranean route has seen an even steeper rise, with rates jumping 6.8% to $3,270 per FEU.
“We are looking at record-breaking container shipping capacity leaving the Far East for North Europe this week, which means carriers know something is boiling,” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, in a research note. “This suggests a nervous market, but the demand must also be there to put upward pressure on rates.”
The unusual combination of increased capacity and rising rates during what is typically a slack period has led to speculation about the influence of tariffs on trade flows. Sand suggests that shippers may be redirecting goods from the Far East to Europe instead of the United States, where tariffs on some Chinese imports have reached 245%.
While the Far East to Europe routes are seeing increases, other major trade lanes show different trends:
- Far East to U.S. East Coast rates remain steady at $3,951 per FEU.
- Far East to U.S. West Coast rates hold at $2,910 per FEU.
- North Europe to U.S. East Coast rates are unchanged at $2,158 per FEU.
Year to date, all fronthaul trades have seen significant rate decreases, ranging from 20% for North Europe to U.S. East Coast to 50% for Far East to U.S. West Coast. That comes as carriers announce general rate increases and surcharges in an effort to shore up prices.
Adding to the complex market dynamics is port congestion in North Europe. Antwerp in Belgium, Le Havre in France, London Gateway and Germany’s Hamburg are experiencing heavy congestion due to various factors including weather, crane maintenance and labor unrest.
Sand warns of potential “carnage” when the record capacity from the Far East arrives in North Europe, given the average transit time of 55 days. “As we saw in 2021, congestion is toxic for ocean container shipping and can quickly spread across global supply chains.”
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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