Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) tracking ocean freight rates declined 2.6% this week, marking the fifth consecutive week of decreases.
The analyst in an update said that the trend indicates a significant shift in market dynamics following a volatile period induced by increased U.S. tariffs in April, and a subsequent China-U.S. tariff pause. Although the tariffs initially caused a lagged market reaction that saw rates climbing in May and surging into early June, this upward trajectory has not been sustained as rates have steadily dropped since mid-June.
Trans-Pacific spot rates have also felt the impact, with prices from Shanghai to Los Angeles currently down by 4% to $2,817 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU). Similarly, rates on the Shanghai to New York route have declined by 6%, to $4,539 per FEU.
Drewry said that despite these decreases, rates on both lanes remain higher than levels observed 10 weeks ago when tariff anxieties were initially escalating. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles are still up 4%, while those to New York have climbed by 24% compared to the figures on May 8.
The overarching decline in spot rates can largely be attributed to weakening demand, which is expected to persist according to Drewry’s Container Forecaster. The outlook anticipates a further weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which could invariably result in continued decreases in spot rates.
The future volatility and rate adjustments will hinge on subsequent trade policies, particularly any additional tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, and on potential capacity changes prompted by U.S. penalties on Chinese shipping lines.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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