Freight industry braces for drop in demand

Tender volume takes a dive

Tender volume, a measure of how often shippers request carriers to move loads, has trended down in recent days. (Chart: SONAR)

Up until the past few days, for all the turmoil in trade policy and the financial markets, SONAR had not been showing much change in freight demand, as measured in tender volume. That changed the past few days as the volume of tenders, or electronic requests made by shippers to move loads, declined significantly to no longer track levels of two years ago (2023 tender volume in red in above chart). Tender volume is now down 14.9% year over year and 7.6% on a two-year stack. Breaking tender volume down by trailer type shows that the dry van segment is bearing the brunt of the decline, down 17.6% year over year, and the less cyclical reefer segment is down 2%.

Ocean market turmoil

SONAR Container Atlas shows that ocean booking volume for shipments from China to the US never recovered post-Chinese New Year. In response, carriers have rationalized capacity and blanked sailings. (Charts: SONAR)