Michael Baudendistel

Mike Baudendistel is the Head of Intermodal Solutions at FreightWaves and author of The Stockout, focusing on the rail intermodal, CPG and retail industries. Prior to joining FreightWaves, Baudendistel served as a senior sell-side equity research analyst covering the publicly traded railroads, and companies that manufacture and lease railroad equipment, trucks, trailers, engines and components. His experience following the freight transportation industry also touched the truckload, Jones Act barge and domestic logistics industries. He is a CFA Charterholder.
Jul - 2025 -
16 July
Michael Baudendistel

SONAR adds intermodal savings rates

Building upon SONAR intermodal and dry van contract rate data already available in the platform, as of today, intermodal savings rates are now included in SONAR, as a national average, for 63 individual lanes, and two indices.  The LA to Dallas lane is competitive between truckload and intermodal with a 9% average intermodal savings rate. […]

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Jun - 2025 -
03 June
Michael Baudendistel

Shippers called the first half better than carriers

Echo surveyed 5,000 carriers and shippers on the freight market On Tuesday, Echo and FreightWaves co-hosted a webinar that featured Sean Burke, Echo chief commercial officer, and Jay Gustafson, Echo executive vice president of brokerage operations. The presentation discussed the results of a survey conducted at the end of last year, with more than 5,000 […]

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May - 2025 -
29 May
Michael Baudendistel

TACO in container ship data

Ocean carriers are maintaining pricing power This chart of ocean spot rates has moved in a manner similar to stock market averages. (Chart: SONAR) By now, most of us have seen memes about a new and creative way to say “Buy the dip,” which is, of course, Trump Always Chickens Out, or TACO. In addition […]

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22 May
Michael Baudendistel

Trade War Command Center quantifies import turmoil

‘Air pocket’ makes its way to port and intermodal volume SONAR Trade War Command Center In April, numerous U.S. ports set records for import volume. The SONAR Trade War Command Center application shows expected steep month-over-month declines in import volumes based on a 14-day moving average of bookings by date of departure. Most notably, volume […]

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09 May
Michael Baudendistel

Loose Southern California truck market set to get looser

Carriers in port cities brace for ‘air pocket’ The Los Angeles outbound tender rejection rate is only 2% compared to the national tender rejection rate of 5.4%. (Chart: SONAR) Import volume remained strong in April, as FreightWaves described, with imports up 1.2% from March and 9.1% year over year. Going forward, a major drop-off in […]

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02 May
Michael Baudendistel

Ocean carriers blank sailings as bookings drop

Ocean rejection rates spike as bookings fall (Chart: SONAR Container Atlas) Much of the focus the past several days has been on the drop in ocean bookings from China to the U.S., and with good reason. The SONAR Ocean Booking Volume Index from China to the U.S. is now down about 50% year over year, […]

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Apr - 2025 -
23 April
Michael Baudendistel

Freight industry braces for drop in demand

Tender volume takes a dive Tender volume, a measure of how often shippers request carriers to move loads, has trended down in recent days. (Chart: SONAR) Up until the past few days, for all the turmoil in trade policy and the financial markets, SONAR had not been showing much change in freight demand, as measured […]

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09 April
Michael Baudendistel

As recession fears grow, so do expectations of plunging freight demand

Imports may fall sharply in second half Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said he expects at least a 10% year-over-year drop in container volume at the port in the second half. I found that to be especially noteworthy because his comments seemed to be a departure from his more bullish remarks in […]

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01 April
Michael Baudendistel

Shippers opt for lower-cost, slower services

Reflecting the tariff pull-forward, rail intermodal takes share from truckload.

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Mar - 2025 -
26 March
Michael Baudendistel

Flatbed market anything but flat

Fears of tariffs on lumber, other goods drive flatbed rejection rates to 3-year high.

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19 March
Michael Baudendistel

Fear of more tariffs prolongs retail pull-forward

Trade group says stores continue to import as much merchandise as possible.

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05 March
Michael Baudendistel

Tariffs in 7 SONAR charts

Impact of levies seen in Canadian trucking, US imports, warehousing and intermodal.

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Feb - 2025 -
26 February
Michael Baudendistel

Are low February freight volumes more than seasonality?

Freight volume has been weak this month Tender volume, which counts how often shippers request that carriers pick up loads, has shown weakness this month. (Chart: SONAR) The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI – above) is the SONAR chart that stands out the most to me this week. It measures the volume of requests from […]

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12 February
Michael Baudendistel

Will ocean rates collapse?

Demand is being pulled forward, ships are being built, and the Red Sea may reopen.

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05 February
Michael Baudendistel

FreightWaves fulfills duty to cover tariffs

Articles and shows describe potential impact to numerous industries.

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Jan - 2025 -
08 January
Michael Baudendistel

Numerous issues on shippers’ radar to start year

Labor strife, volatile freight rates and fraud all have disruptive potential.

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Dec - 2024 -
18 December
Michael Baudendistel

Freight market shows additional signs of recovery

Tender rejection rate rises as holidays approach The tender rejection rate has risen steadily since early October despite tender volume declining. That implies that capacity is leaving the market, which is leading to a tighter freight market. (Chart: SONAR) Both truckload spot rates and tender rejection rates are indicating that the freight market is tightening. […]

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11 December
04 December
Michael Baudendistel

Reefer market shows signs of tightening

SONAR shows carriers turning down more than 20% of outbound Ontario loads.

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Nov - 2024 -
27 November
Michael Baudendistel

Black Friday is not canceled, but shoppers want even better deals

It’s that time of year – retail news abounds on FreightWaves and elsewhere I thought Target’s management team put it well last week as it now describes consumers as “resourceful,” meaning they are still shopping but are looking for value and waiting for deals, rather than “resilient,” the term it used previously. Along similar lines, […]

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20 November
Michael Baudendistel

SONAR expands LTL and intermodal data offering

Data platform now provides LTL rates by class and intermodal contract rates by lane.

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13 November
Michael Baudendistel

Nikola exec says battery versus hydrogen not an either/or

Alternative fuel equipment leader is actively building hydrogen fueling network.

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07 November
Michael Baudendistel

Freight shareholders cheer election results

Old Dominion, CSX among largest post-election gainers as freight stocks outperformed broader averages.

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06 November
Michael Baudendistel

Retail and CPG industries grapple with election results

Tariffs, taxes, the FTC and food regulations are among the major issues.

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Oct - 2024 -
30 October
Michael Baudendistel

Echo exec meets Mexico challenges with integrated logistics model

Expertise is key to navigating cargo insurance, security and customs issues in Mexico.

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23 October
Michael Baudendistel

Retail, CPG industries brace for election results

Latest The Stockout show explores sock puppets This is how RFK Jr. sees U.S. food regulators. (Image: FWTV) On Monday’s The Stockout show, which focuses on topics relevant to shippers in the retail and CPG industries, Grace Sharkey and I discussed how the election could impact those sectors. If Trump is elected, the Federal Trade […]

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16 October
Michael Baudendistel

Reefer tender rejection rates surge following hurricanes

Tender rejection rates rise for reefer, but remain muted for dry van, suggesting supply and demand in the reefer segment is much more balanced.

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10 October
Michael Baudendistel

Brittain Ladd returns to The Stockout

Start your week with Brittain Ladd On Monday at 10 a.m. EDT, Grace Sharkey and I will again interview one of our favorite guests: outspoken independent consultant Brittain Ladd. The depth of Ladd’s expertise is impressive and spans companies and topics throughout the retail space and far beyond.  On his prior The Stockout appearance, his […]

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02 October
Michael Baudendistel

ILA strike – is 1 week the bogey?

Perishables and auto parts will get scarce if strike persists.

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Sep - 2024 -
26 September
Michael Baudendistel

Where ILA strike might go from here

Biden administration said it won’t intervene, but is that really believable?

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19 September
Michael Baudendistel

Say it ain’t so, Joe

Biden administration says no to using Taft-Hartley to stop ILA strike.

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10 September
Michael Baudendistel

Shippers’ wariness of potential ILA strike visible in SONAR data

Even a short work stoppage by the ILA would greatly disrupt freight networks. SONAR charts show evidence of shippers looking to avoid getting caught in a potential ILA strike which has impacts on maritime, rail intermodal and truckload data.

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05 September
Michael Baudendistel

Is the prospect of tightening capacity this fall overblown?

Tender rejections are anemic, and most LTL carriers are reporting down tonnage.

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Aug - 2024 -
29 August
Michael Baudendistel

Will we hear updated ILA demands next week?

International Longshoremen’s Association delegates are to meet Wednesday and Thursday.

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22 August
Michael Baudendistel

Canadian rail lockout – SONAR datasets to watch

The industries to be most heavily impacted are those in bulk commodities, such as grain, potash and metallurgical coal. In addition, several intermodal corridors will be heavily impacted including long-haul international intermodal lanes, cross-border lanes. US intermodal volume is seeing a boost, but that could lead to congestion.

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21 August
Michael Baudendistel

Are food companies guilty of price gouging?

Groceries emerge as political football as Harris floats price controls.

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15 August
Michael Baudendistel

Ocean market – adding capacity doesn’t mean overcapacity

Maritime expert cites carrier alliances’ ability to blank sailings to manage capacity.

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08 August
Michael Baudendistel

Ocean spot rates have likely peaked

Easing port congestion, seasonal demand trends make third surge improbable.

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May - 2024 -
24 May
Michael Baudendistel

Target appears to be losing on everyday items

Losing share in boring items Target shares have severely underperformed Walmart over the past three years. (Chart: Barchart.com, Inc.) Target spent much of Wednesday’s earnings call talking about recent promotions, new product introductions and holiday-related sales. Examples include Target Circle Days, back to school, the launch of a private label outdoor brand, pickleball gear introductions, […]

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10 May
Michael Baudendistel

Brittain Ladd brings bare-knuckle comments to The Stockout

Outspoken consultant shares views on India and Starbucks, among other things.

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02 May
Michael Baudendistel

Latte and Big Mac sales show consumers are hurting

Future of Supply Chain discount code expires May 15  Stockouters, I want to see you in Atlanta! My subscribers can still access tickets to FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain at a reduced rate here, but not for long. The event takes place June 4-5 at the Georgia International Convention Center. Click here for what to […]

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Apr - 2024 -
22 April
03 April
Michael Baudendistel

Selling profitably on Amazon becomes even harder

Largest online retailer to impose new inventory-placement and low-inventory fees.

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Mar - 2024 -
29 March
Michael Baudendistel

FreightWaves’ Baltimore coverage spans segments

Key Bridge reports includes news articles, data and expert commentary.

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22 March
Michael Baudendistel

Subscription boxes — wow them or they’ll bounce

Ideal for consumer engagement, recurring packages face economic and logistical challenges.

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14 March
08 March
Michael Baudendistel

Recent shows highlight CPG companies’ concerns

Shippers should facilitate supplier collaboration while bracing for potential freight market turn.

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Feb - 2024 -
16 February
Michael Baudendistel

Amazon and the FTC don’t agree on much

In addition to key issues in lawsuit, parties at odds over scope and time frame.

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09 February
Michael Baudendistel

Is Amazon a distributor?

Governmental order could place safety burdens on e-commerce giant.

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01 February
Michael Baudendistel

Railroad’s share bounce should leave intermodal shippers wary

Activist pressure and focus on OR are at odds with optimal service levels.

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Jan - 2024 -
19 January
Michael Baudendistel

J.B. Hunt highlights improved intermodal volume but also rate pressure

Multimodal carrier considers volume a leading indicator and price a lagging one.

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10 January
Michael Baudendistel

Pepsi/Carrefour divide the latest among retail/CPG disputes

Tension between stores and suppliers has intensified amid commodity fluctuations.

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04 January
Michael Baudendistel

Conagra’s supply chain is ‘humming again’

CPG giant sees no impact from Red Sea drama, but consumer pressures remain evident.

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Dec - 2023 -
21 December
07 December
Michael Baudendistel

TriumphPay expects another year of depressed freight rates

Payments network is seeing only modest levels of freight capacity exiting the market.

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Nov - 2023 -
29 November
Michael Baudendistel

Will FOMO and YOLO lead to No Mo’?

Consumers remain remarkably spendy in the face of rising debt balances.

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22 November
Michael Baudendistel

Happy Thanksgiving and go Lions!

Holiday sports offer welcome reprieve from discouraging newsfeed.

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Oct - 2023 -
11 October
Michael Baudendistel

Health issues loom over CPG industry

GLP-1 drug use and wariness of ultraprocessed foods could hit sales.

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04 October
Michael Baudendistel

Can CPGs sell on Amazon Marketplace profitably?

FTC complaint highlights challenges that sellers face on the largest e-commerce platform.

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Sep - 2023 -
28 September
Michael Baudendistel

Is Amazon illegally burying products in search results?

Comments from Amazon merchandising expert add context to nuanced issue.

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21 September
Michael Baudendistel

CPGs, retailers collaborate to balance volume and unit revenue

Pricing strategies advance as companies model changes in consumer behavior.

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13 September
Michael Baudendistel

What the Smuck?!? Analysts highlight Hostess deal risks

Smucker’s Twinkie defense points to recent growth in indulgent snacking.

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06 September
Michael Baudendistel

Welcome to the new and improved product

The Stockout content breadth expands to include both CPG and retail logistics coverage.

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Aug - 2023 -
31 August
Michael Baudendistel

Smucker sees stickiness in high prices for most packaged foods

Packaged coffee is an exception to sticky prices where consumers are benefiting from lower commodity costs.

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24 August
Michael Baudendistel

Retailers look to get suppliers’ prices lower

Big-box sellers report healthier-than-expected consumers and stress high in-stock rates.

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10 August
Michael Baudendistel

AI, machine learning centerpieces of Blue Yonder’s supply chain solutions

Numerous acquisitions the past several years bolstered logistics firm’s end-to-end capabilities.

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Jul - 2023 -
20 July
Michael Baudendistel

Consumer slowdown hitting CPG results, keeping freight volumes muted

Conagra says consumers are buying less while J.B. Hunt highlights lack of seasonal uptick.

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06 July
Michael Baudendistel

Shippers wary of service as labor issues dominate freight news

British Columbia port workers’ strike ongoing and UPS Teamsters threatening to strike at month’s end.

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May - 2023 -
31 May
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Food trade groups oppose California bill on additives

New regulations could force CPGs to revise product formulas to eliminate common ingredients.

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17 May
Michael Baudendistel

Simple ‘click to cancel’ button could shake up subscription boxes

A proposed revision to FTC regulations would make canceling subscriptions as easy as signing up.

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10 May
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Outdated FTC Green Guides still under review

Upcoming revisions are likely to impact CPG ingredients, packaging and labeling.

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Apr - 2023 -
12 April
Michael Baudendistel

CPG cost pressure begins to ease

Amid lower commodity costs, retail CPG prices should stick, leading to margin recovery.

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05 April
Michael Baudendistel

ConAgra builds inventory to restore service levels

Some supply chain issues remain, but moderating inflation helps margins recover.

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Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Sugar and salt reduction a CPG focus for foreseeable future

Startups aim to help CPGs achieve clean labels while governments revise health regulations.

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Mar - 2023 -
24 March
Michael Baudendistel

CPGs ask suppliers to stop buying palm oil from major supplier

Production of palm oil, a common CPG ingredient, is associated with deforestation and human rights abuses.

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15 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Nestle drives CPG industry forward on sustainability

Most food emissions come from ingredients, but the impact of packaging redesign is more immediate.

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08 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: CPG labor shortage is here to stay

Automation benefits go beyond productivity and extend into food and worker safety.

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01 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Retailers aim for convenience over cattle call

Walmart and Target look to save shoppers from the indignity of checkout counters

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Feb - 2023 -
22 February
Michael Baudendistel

Where do CPG prices go from here?

Mixed commentary suggests that further ticket revisions will be ‘more surgical.’

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08 February
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: USDA issues new regulations on sugar in school meals for 1st time

In addition to sugar, other regulatory updates pertain to sodium, whole grains and flavored milk.

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01 February
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Retailers, CPGs at odds over packaged goods pricing

Commodity prices have come down, but manufacturers say their costs are still rising.

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Jan - 2023 -
27 January
Michael Baudendistel

FDA moves forward on front-of-packaging labeling requirements

The Food and Drug Administration has issued a 60-day notice of its plans to conduct research on front-of-package nutrition labels.

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25 January
Michael Baudendistel

Will consumers sacrifice everyday items for the rare splurge?

CPGs’ worst nightmare For certain CPG categories, I would argue that the worst thing that could happen isn’t a recession but consumers getting religion on healthy eating and avoiding the center of the grocery store altogether. Healthy eating aside, earlier this week The Wall Street Journal highlighted a second concern that may be gaining traction […]

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20 January
Michael Baudendistel

Startups target sugar reduction

Sugar reduction startups The consumer-packaged-goods-related article that I found most interesting this week was in FoodBusinessNews and it described three startups focused on developing very innovative sugar reduction alternatives. Here is a quick synopsis of those companies: Growing concern about sugar and salt intake Of course, there are easy ways for consumers to cut sugar. […]

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18 January
Michael Baudendistel

Consumers start to balk at higher prices

Growing evidence of ‘shopper rebellion’ Elasticities, or the negative change in sales volume in response to rising prices, has been one of the main topics in the CPG industry in the past year. Despite two consecutive years of steeply rising prices, including last year’s CPG price growth of upward of 15% or more in many […]

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12 January
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Are consumers really getting too cheap to buy good beer?

Deceleration in Constellation Brands’ shipment growth and disappointing margin outlook Constellation Brands, the owner of the Corona and Modelo beer brands and various wine and spirits brands, such as Svedka Vodka, was among the first CPG companies to report earnings in the new year and it proved to be a controversial quarter. Shares declined 10% […]

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Oct - 2022 -
22 October
Michael Baudendistel

5 SONAR charts that stand out

Sick of earnings season yet? It’s this time of the quarter when I miss my old position as a sell-side stock analyst the least. For those looking to get caught up on earnings, there is plenty of coverage on FreightWaves. For freight carriers, the themes so far have been loosening market conditions and the lack […]

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Sep - 2022 -
28 September
Michael Baudendistel

Nothing smooth about butter

High butter prices expected to persist Butter is currently second only to eggs for the title of most inflationary food item, up 25% year over year, compared to 13%-14% for the entire grocery category. Inventories of cold butter at the end of July were the lowest since 2017. Those stocks are usually built up early […]

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