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Michael Baudendistel

Mike Baudendistel is the Head of Intermodal Solutions at FreightWaves and author of The Stockout, focusing on the rail intermodal, CPG and retail industries. Prior to joining FreightWaves, Baudendistel served as a senior sell-side equity research analyst covering the publicly traded railroads, and companies that manufacture and lease railroad equipment, trucks, trailers, engines and components. His experience following the freight transportation industry also touched the truckload, Jones Act barge and domestic logistics industries. He is a CFA Charterholder.
Oct - 2024 -
02 October
Michael Baudendistel

ILA strike – is 1 week the bogey?

Perishables and auto parts will get scarce if strike persists.

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Sep - 2024 -
26 September
Michael Baudendistel

Where ILA strike might go from here

Biden administration said it won’t intervene, but is that really believable?

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19 September
Michael Baudendistel

Say it ain’t so, Joe

Biden administration says no to using Taft-Hartley to stop ILA strike.

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10 September
Michael Baudendistel

Shippers’ wariness of potential ILA strike visible in SONAR data

Even a short work stoppage by the ILA would greatly disrupt freight networks. SONAR charts show evidence of shippers looking to avoid getting caught in a potential ILA strike which has impacts on maritime, rail intermodal and truckload data.

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05 September
Michael Baudendistel

Is the prospect of tightening capacity this fall overblown?

Tender rejections are anemic, and most LTL carriers are reporting down tonnage.

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Aug - 2024 -
29 August
Michael Baudendistel

Will we hear updated ILA demands next week?

International Longshoremen’s Association delegates are to meet Wednesday and Thursday.

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22 August
Michael Baudendistel

Canadian rail lockout – SONAR datasets to watch

The industries to be most heavily impacted are those in bulk commodities, such as grain, potash and metallurgical coal. In addition, several intermodal corridors will be heavily impacted including long-haul international intermodal lanes, cross-border lanes. US intermodal volume is seeing a boost, but that could lead to congestion.

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21 August
Michael Baudendistel

Are food companies guilty of price gouging?

Groceries emerge as political football as Harris floats price controls.

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15 August
Michael Baudendistel

Ocean market – adding capacity doesn’t mean overcapacity

Maritime expert cites carrier alliances’ ability to blank sailings to manage capacity.

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08 August
Michael Baudendistel

Ocean spot rates have likely peaked

Easing port congestion, seasonal demand trends make third surge improbable.

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May - 2024 -
24 May
Michael Baudendistel

Target appears to be losing on everyday items

Losing share in boring items Target shares have severely underperformed Walmart over the past three years. (Chart: Barchart.com, Inc.) Target spent much of Wednesday’s earnings call talking about recent promotions, […]

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10 May
Michael Baudendistel

Brittain Ladd brings bare-knuckle comments to The Stockout

Outspoken consultant shares views on India and Starbucks, among other things.

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02 May
Michael Baudendistel

Latte and Big Mac sales show consumers are hurting

Future of Supply Chain discount code expires May 15  Stockouters, I want to see you in Atlanta! My subscribers can still access tickets to FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain at […]

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Apr - 2024 -
22 April
03 April
Michael Baudendistel

Selling profitably on Amazon becomes even harder

Largest online retailer to impose new inventory-placement and low-inventory fees.

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Mar - 2024 -
29 March
Michael Baudendistel

FreightWaves’ Baltimore coverage spans segments

Key Bridge reports includes news articles, data and expert commentary.

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22 March
Michael Baudendistel

Subscription boxes — wow them or they’ll bounce

Ideal for consumer engagement, recurring packages face economic and logistical challenges.

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14 March
08 March
Michael Baudendistel

Recent shows highlight CPG companies’ concerns

Shippers should facilitate supplier collaboration while bracing for potential freight market turn.

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Feb - 2024 -
16 February
Michael Baudendistel

Amazon and the FTC don’t agree on much

In addition to key issues in lawsuit, parties at odds over scope and time frame.

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09 February
Michael Baudendistel

Is Amazon a distributor?

Governmental order could place safety burdens on e-commerce giant.

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01 February
Michael Baudendistel

Railroad’s share bounce should leave intermodal shippers wary

Activist pressure and focus on OR are at odds with optimal service levels.

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Jan - 2024 -
19 January
Michael Baudendistel

J.B. Hunt highlights improved intermodal volume but also rate pressure

Multimodal carrier considers volume a leading indicator and price a lagging one.

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10 January
Michael Baudendistel

Pepsi/Carrefour divide the latest among retail/CPG disputes

Tension between stores and suppliers has intensified amid commodity fluctuations.

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04 January
Michael Baudendistel

Conagra’s supply chain is ‘humming again’

CPG giant sees no impact from Red Sea drama, but consumer pressures remain evident.

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Dec - 2023 -
21 December
07 December
Michael Baudendistel

TriumphPay expects another year of depressed freight rates

Payments network is seeing only modest levels of freight capacity exiting the market.

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Nov - 2023 -
29 November
Michael Baudendistel

Will FOMO and YOLO lead to No Mo’?

Consumers remain remarkably spendy in the face of rising debt balances.

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22 November
Michael Baudendistel

Happy Thanksgiving and go Lions!

Holiday sports offer welcome reprieve from discouraging newsfeed.

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Oct - 2023 -
11 October
Michael Baudendistel

Health issues loom over CPG industry

GLP-1 drug use and wariness of ultraprocessed foods could hit sales.

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04 October
Michael Baudendistel

Can CPGs sell on Amazon Marketplace profitably?

FTC complaint highlights challenges that sellers face on the largest e-commerce platform.

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Sep - 2023 -
28 September
Michael Baudendistel

Is Amazon illegally burying products in search results?

Comments from Amazon merchandising expert add context to nuanced issue.

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21 September
Michael Baudendistel

CPGs, retailers collaborate to balance volume and unit revenue

Pricing strategies advance as companies model changes in consumer behavior.

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13 September
Michael Baudendistel

What the Smuck?!? Analysts highlight Hostess deal risks

Smucker’s Twinkie defense points to recent growth in indulgent snacking.

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06 September
Michael Baudendistel

Welcome to the new and improved product

The Stockout content breadth expands to include both CPG and retail logistics coverage.

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Aug - 2023 -
31 August
Michael Baudendistel

Smucker sees stickiness in high prices for most packaged foods

Packaged coffee is an exception to sticky prices where consumers are benefiting from lower commodity costs.

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24 August
Michael Baudendistel

Retailers look to get suppliers’ prices lower

Big-box sellers report healthier-than-expected consumers and stress high in-stock rates.

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10 August
Michael Baudendistel

AI, machine learning centerpieces of Blue Yonder’s supply chain solutions

Numerous acquisitions the past several years bolstered logistics firm’s end-to-end capabilities.

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Jul - 2023 -
20 July
Michael Baudendistel

Consumer slowdown hitting CPG results, keeping freight volumes muted

Conagra says consumers are buying less while J.B. Hunt highlights lack of seasonal uptick.

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06 July
Michael Baudendistel

Shippers wary of service as labor issues dominate freight news

British Columbia port workers’ strike ongoing and UPS Teamsters threatening to strike at month’s end.

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May - 2023 -
31 May
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Food trade groups oppose California bill on additives

New regulations could force CPGs to revise product formulas to eliminate common ingredients.

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17 May
Michael Baudendistel

Simple ‘click to cancel’ button could shake up subscription boxes

A proposed revision to FTC regulations would make canceling subscriptions as easy as signing up.

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10 May
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Outdated FTC Green Guides still under review

Upcoming revisions are likely to impact CPG ingredients, packaging and labeling.

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Apr - 2023 -
12 April
Michael Baudendistel

CPG cost pressure begins to ease

Amid lower commodity costs, retail CPG prices should stick, leading to margin recovery.

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05 April
Michael Baudendistel

ConAgra builds inventory to restore service levels

Some supply chain issues remain, but moderating inflation helps margins recover.

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Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Sugar and salt reduction a CPG focus for foreseeable future

Startups aim to help CPGs achieve clean labels while governments revise health regulations.

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Mar - 2023 -
24 March
Michael Baudendistel

CPGs ask suppliers to stop buying palm oil from major supplier

Production of palm oil, a common CPG ingredient, is associated with deforestation and human rights abuses.

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15 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Nestle drives CPG industry forward on sustainability

Most food emissions come from ingredients, but the impact of packaging redesign is more immediate.

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08 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: CPG labor shortage is here to stay

Automation benefits go beyond productivity and extend into food and worker safety.

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01 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Retailers aim for convenience over cattle call

Walmart and Target look to save shoppers from the indignity of checkout counters

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Feb - 2023 -
22 February
Michael Baudendistel

Where do CPG prices go from here?

Mixed commentary suggests that further ticket revisions will be ‘more surgical.’

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08 February
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: USDA issues new regulations on sugar in school meals for 1st time

In addition to sugar, other regulatory updates pertain to sodium, whole grains and flavored milk.

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01 February
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Retailers, CPGs at odds over packaged goods pricing

Commodity prices have come down, but manufacturers say their costs are still rising.

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Jan - 2023 -
27 January
Michael Baudendistel

FDA moves forward on front-of-packaging labeling requirements

The Food and Drug Administration has issued a 60-day notice of its plans to conduct research on front-of-package nutrition labels.

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25 January
Michael Baudendistel

Will consumers sacrifice everyday items for the rare splurge?

CPGs’ worst nightmare For certain CPG categories, I would argue that the worst thing that could happen isn’t a recession but consumers getting religion on healthy eating and avoiding the […]

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20 January
Michael Baudendistel

Startups target sugar reduction

Sugar reduction startups The consumer-packaged-goods-related article that I found most interesting this week was in FoodBusinessNews and it described three startups focused on developing very innovative sugar reduction alternatives. Here […]

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18 January
Michael Baudendistel

Consumers start to balk at higher prices

Growing evidence of ‘shopper rebellion’ Elasticities, or the negative change in sales volume in response to rising prices, has been one of the main topics in the CPG industry in […]

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12 January
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Are consumers really getting too cheap to buy good beer?

Deceleration in Constellation Brands’ shipment growth and disappointing margin outlook Constellation Brands, the owner of the Corona and Modelo beer brands and various wine and spirits brands, such as Svedka […]

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Oct - 2022 -
22 October
Michael Baudendistel

5 SONAR charts that stand out

Sick of earnings season yet? It’s this time of the quarter when I miss my old position as a sell-side stock analyst the least. For those looking to get caught […]

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Sep - 2022 -
28 September
Michael Baudendistel

Nothing smooth about butter

High butter prices expected to persist Butter is currently second only to eggs for the title of most inflationary food item, up 25% year over year, compared to 13%-14% for […]

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Aug - 2022 -
31 August
Michael Baudendistel

Industrial carbon dioxide shortages hit food and beverage makers

Industrial carbon dioxide shortage The industrial CO2 shortage is a supply chain issue that stands to impact the consumer packaged goods industry heavily with food and beverage manufacturing representing approximately […]

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26 August
Michael Baudendistel

As truckload rates fall, competition with intermodal intensifies

Consumer packaged goods companies (CPGs) and retailers are among the largest intermodal shippers. Today’s edition of The Stockout highlights data relevant for shippers that utilize rail intermodal or are looking […]

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17 August
Michael Baudendistel

CPGs grapple with uncertain consumer behavior

How well will consumer packaged goods (CPG) purchases ultimately hold up?  Not only is CPG demand forecasting arguably more difficult than ever, it is also more critical than normal since […]

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Jul - 2022 -
07 July
Michael Baudendistel

Will the correction in commodity prices boost CPG margins?

Has CPG ingredient inflation peaked?  I can only speculate whether the recent pullback in commodity prices will continue, but with crude oil off its high, crop prices well off their […]

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Jun - 2022 -
29 June
Michael Baudendistel

General Mills expects supply chain disruptions to persist

General Mills’ supply chain disruptions to persist At a Wall Street conference earlier this month, Jonathan Nudi, General Mills’ president of North American retail, said, “We’re seeing 10 times the […]

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22 June
Michael Baudendistel

Why the Kellogg split makes sense

Kellogg splitsville As I am sure you’ve seen, the big CPG news Tuesday was that Kellogg will become three separate companies. Management will focus on the snacks/international business (I’ll call […]

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May - 2022 -
25 May
Michael Baudendistel

Rail service becomes bigger political football

Ranked 39th on the Transport Topics list of top brokerage firms, Axle Logistics takes a consultative and streamlined approach to your shipping needs. Email sales@axlelogistics.com to connect with the team […]

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20 May
Michael Baudendistel

What the retail rout means for CPGs

Ranked 39th on the Transport Topics list of top brokerage firms, Axle Logistics takes a consultative and streamlined approach to your shipping needs. Email sales@axlelogistics.com to connect with the team […]

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18 May
Michael Baudendistel

Does reacting to real-time supply chain data beat forecasting?

Numerous companies, including CPG companies, at FreightWaves’ The Future of Supply Chain conference last week highlighted the difficulty of accurately forecasting. We heard that sentiment expressed from numerous companies, including […]

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Apr - 2022 -
27 April
Michael Baudendistel

CPGs still consider freight costs to be ‘headwinds’

CPG companies expect continued inflation on transportation costs this year. While there are plenty of signs on the horizon that suggest that a freight recession may be forthcoming, 2022 freight […]

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20 April
Michael Baudendistel

CPG margin pressure no longer surprises Wall Street

Procter & Gamble highlights the combination of commodity, freight and foreign exchange as having a combined 22% headwind on core EPS in its fiscal 2022 (ending June 30). The company’s […]

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11 April
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Branding agency Interact highlights packaging innovation and pitfalls

On last week’s The Stockout show, I interviewed Fred Hart, partner and creative director of Interact, a branding agency in Boulder, Colorado. Fred works with a wide range of CPG […]

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Mar - 2022 -
31 March
Michael Baudendistel

What a loosening freight market means for CPG companies

The truck market is correcting. If you haven’t read the article that FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller wrote last week titled, “Just 3 years after 2019 trucking bloodbath, another is on […]

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23 March
Michael Baudendistel

General Mills raises guidance after overcoming supply chain constraints

Supply chain improvement, leading to better on-shelf availability, drove positive variance relative to management’s prior guidance. Shares of General Mills rose 2.5% on Wednesday in a down market. The increase […]

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16 March
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: No way to mask rising grocery prices

Grocery prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in February. As miserable as the overall 7.9% inflation rate was for most consumers in February, grocery inflation outpaced it, with its highest rate of […]

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09 March
Michael Baudendistel

Viewpoint: CPG companies should not suspend sales in Russia

In a letter to associates, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta said, “As a food and beverage company, now more than ever we must stay true to the humanitarian aspect of our […]

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07 March
Michael Baudendistel

Economic forecasts cut as energy, agriculture prices surge

Will we see a depression in Russia, a recession in western Europe and slower positive economic growth in North America, or some other scenario? It’s not yet clear whether the […]

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04 March
Michael Baudendistel

CPG powerhouses aplenty at Future of Supply Chain

Before getting into CPG news, I encourage readers of The Stockout to join us at The Future of Supply Chain event, which takes place May 9-10 at the Rogers Convention […]

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Feb - 2022 -
25 February
Michael Baudendistel

CPG companies quickly halt operations in Ukraine

Numerous multinational CPG companies are suspending or limiting production in Ukraine in an effort to keep employees safe. The major CPG companies that have announced they are limiting or suspending […]

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21 February
Michael Baudendistel

Vegetable oil inflation drives 11-year high in food prices

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 135.7 points in January, 1.1 percent higher than December and the highest level in 11 years. […]

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18 February
Michael Baudendistel

Nestle’s portfolio shift pays off, avoids margin pressure seen at peers

Nestle’s corporate strategy the past several years has prepared it for the highly inflationary environment we now find ourselves in. The main thing that stood out to me in Nestle’s […]

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15 February
Michael Baudendistel

CPG cutback may not be consumers’ first response to inflation

This is the best article I saw in recent days relevant to CPG companies — Just Food described how consumer behavior will likely change in response to sharp inflation in […]

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07 February
Michael Baudendistel

Clorox won’t clean up its margins this year

Following disappointing earnings on Thursday afternoon, Clorox (NYSE: CLX) shares fell 14.3% on Friday, making it the day’s worst-performing stock on the S&P 500. One of the lowlights was the […]

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Jan - 2022 -
28 January
Michael Baudendistel

Mondelez sees ‘high-single-digit’ cost inflation this year

Mondelez sees logistics costs rising worldwide, but not at the same pace as in the U.S. The Chicago-based snack maker cited a severe imbalance between supply and demand for truck […]

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25 January
Michael Baudendistel

Unilever shares rise on report of activist involvement

What will Unilever look like in the coming years? Unilever stood out Monday because the shares rose 8.6% on news of activist involvement and were up throughout the day while […]

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14 January
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: 5 SONAR charts that stand out

This week’s CPG news items reflect a continuation of recent food/beverage trends.  More crossover between soft drink and alcoholic drinks: Monster Beverage is the latest soft drink company to get […]

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Dec - 2021 -
10 December
Michael Baudendistel

10 CPG trends to watch in ’22

Instead of discussing the current CPG news and freight data per my usual, for today’s newsletter I highlight the CPG industry trends I expect to see in 2022.  Trend No. […]

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02 December
Michael Baudendistel

Tony the Tiger may soon end his strrr-ike

Before getting into CPG news, here are two near-term events for your calendar:  On Friday, The Stockout show is focused on the railroad industry and features a true industry expert […]

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Nov - 2021 -
26 November
Michael Baudendistel

Smucker posts strong sales but still feels margin pressure

J.M. Smucker Co.’s results highlight margin pressure even as CPG companies raise prices and continue to post strong sales. Overall, Smucker reported strong results as its earnings easily beat analysts’ […]

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23 November
Michael Baudendistel

Consumer data shows mixed messages

Before getting into what’s happening in CPG supply chains, here’s something for your calendar: I host the next quarterly The Stockout webinar on Dec. 6 at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s […]

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19 November
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Nestlé gets aggressive with online ambitions

Before getting into what’s happening in CPG supply chains, here’s something for your calendar: I host the next quarterly The Stockout webinar on Dec. 6 at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s […]

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17 November
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Oatly shares remain under pressure as revenue growth slows

Oatly (Swedish oat milk company) shares continue to struggle. Oatly’s American depository receipts declined 21% Monday and closed at $9.36, down 45% from the $17 IPO price. Investors’ primary concern […]

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12 November
Michael Baudendistel

The Stockout: Beyond Meat shares battered as 4Q outlook disappoints

Beyond Meat sell-off further ignites debate about demand for plant-based protein. From my perspective, Beyond Meat’s earnings and the fallout have been the most interesting CPG-related news this week. The […]

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