Meet the New Year, same as the Old Year.
The effects of rising tariffs are expected to tamp down import demand, the leading retail industry trade group predicts, as policy-driven uncertainty rolls on into 2026.
The recent months of year-over-year declines in import cargo volume through the busiest U.S. container ports is expected to continue in the New Year, according to data from the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker.
Volume totaled 2.07 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, down 1.8% from September and 7.9% year-over-year.
November volumes not yet reported are estimated at 1.91 million TEUs, off 11.6% y/y, while December is forecast at 1.86 million TEUs, a decrease of 12.7%.
That would make November and December the slowest months of this year following the July peak of 2.39 million TEUs. December also would be the slowest month since 1.83 million TEUs in June 2023.
The current data does not include the port of Charleston, South Carolina.
The NRF added that while November and December are traditionally slow for imports, the bigger year-over-year drops came against higher 2024 traffic as importers stocked up ahead of port strikes. Current volumes suffered compounding effects as retailers brought in goods earlier than usual to avoid tariffs.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release.
The Trump administration has reduced some tariffs in a chaotic campaign begun earlier this year, most recently on some food products as rising consumer prices became a front-page issue. At the same time, the Supreme Court heard arguments challenging the legality of levies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A timeline for a decision is unknown, but if the tariffs are blocked it is expected that the administration would seek to reinstate them under other trade authorities.
Tariff effects are unlikely to end soon.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” said Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates, who manages the Port Tracker. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
The trade group for the first time is forecasting record U.S. retail holiday sales of more than $1 trillion, between 3.7% and 4.2% higher than in 2024.
In 2025 first-half container volume totaled 12.53 million TEUs, better by 3.7% y/y. For all of this year the forecast is for 25.2 million TEUs, off 1.4% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
January is expected to show the first month-over-month increase in six months at 2 million TEUs but short of the y/y period by 10.3%. February volume is pegged at 1.86 million TEUs, down 8.5%; March at 1.79 million TEUs, weaker by 16.8%, and April at 1.97 million TEUs, decline of 10.9%.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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