Riptide of change roils ocean shipping

But wait, there’s more!

While tens of thousands of mariners and hundreds of ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf, major liners haven’t operated scheduled services on the Red Sea-Suez Canal route since late 2023 – the first time the two busiest Mideast trade routes have been closed at the same time. 

That’s because Houthi rebels in Yemen – backed by Iran – attacked merchant shipping in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Carriers saw windfall profits in the tens of billions of dollars in 2024 thanks to longer voyages as they diverted away from the Red Sea and around the tip of Africa. 

The Houthis are now threatening to close the Bal-el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, but threats appear to be the 

Houthi’s only effective weapon today. Extensive bombing campaigns by the Biden administration in 2024 and Trump in 2025 failed to eliminate the militia. But since Iran’s domestic issues worsened through 2025, their support seemed to wane and the Houthis aimed their attacks directly at Israel. But threats have been enough to send liners packing once again, just as they were making a tentative return to the Red Sea prior to the Iran war.

The tariff-influenced change in trade patterns has been seen across global markets. For the United States, more Asia imports have been diverted to Mexico and Canada, to increasingly make their way across the border by train and truck. That’s taken volume away from the Southern California import gateway, though resilient consumer spending has helped Los Angeles and Long Beach post solid results.

China’s push to grow its export sales in 2025 led to a flood of goods into Europe, where port congestion has become the norm.  

But global economic uncertainty, shifting trade patterns and an influx of new tonnage turned profits to losses for some of the biggest lines in 2025. The industry’s cyclicality had made a post-pandemic return, again begging the fundamental question of whether it’s possible to consistently turn a profit in ocean shipping.

Some companies aren’t waiting to find out the answer.

This past week, MSC acquired 50% of Sinikor of South Korea, and that company’s fleet of 78 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the largest vessel segment in oil shipping. That diversifies MSC away from the cyclicality of the container business, and likely less volatility in energy markets with a joint venture that looks less like a flyer and more like a long-term plan.

Maersk (MAERSK-B.CO), the world’s second-ranked container line, is making a push into delivery logistics with Maersk Parcel, to close the last gap between warehouse and customer. The single platform gives shippers one label, one invoice, one rate card and one tracking experience. 

In another consolidation among top 10 container carriers, tenth-listed Zim in February agreed to be acquired by No. 5 Hapag-Lloyd for $4.2 billion. The deal won’t push the German company past the trio of Japanese lines in Ocean Network Express (ONE) at four in terms of capacity. But it boosts Hapag-Lloyd’s scale and reinforces its reach, particularly on trans-Pacific trade lanes between Asia and the United States, where its market share is expected to rise from 7% to 12%. 

There is speculation about further consolidation among smaller container carriers that don’t have the capitalization necessary to survive in a changing market.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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