‘TikTok’ of rising ocean rates as China prospects improve

Golden Week spurs modestly better trans-Pacific demand

(Photo: ONE)
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Key Takeaways:

  • Positive progress in US-China trade talks, including potential TikTok deal, may benefit trans-Pacific shipping.
  • Container shipping rates from China to the US West Coast increased significantly (7% to $2,309 per FEU), and East Coast rates also rose (4% to $3,368 per FEU).
  • Rate increases are attributed to ocean carrier actions (general rate increases, blanked sailings) and increased demand before China's Golden Week holiday, potentially influenced by a tariff extension.
  • Despite positive September import numbers, overall second-half import projections remain lower compared to 2024, with some carriers adjusting their service routes in anticipation of potential US port charges.
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Positive signs surrounded trade negotiations taking place this week in Madrid between China and the United States, led by reported progress on a deal for social media platform TikTok, that could ultimately benefit trans-Pacific shipping.

More good news was rate improvement for containers heading from China to the U.S. West Coast, which increased 7% to $2,309 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) as of Sept. 16, according to consultant Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO). That was also 34% higher than at the end of August.

China-East Coast prices edged up 4% to $3,368 per FEU, having risen by 24% in September. 

Freightos Research Chief Judah Levine credited ocean lines’ general rate increases imposed earlier this month, buttressed by blanked sailings and higher shipper demand approaching China’s Golden Week holiday.

“[Rates] may have been helped by some volume increase due to the 30% China tariff extension [through November],” Levine wrote in a note. 

But Levine cautioned that while the tariff pause has so far failed to fuel a surge in volumes since, it may have slowed the rate of declining demand.

Also, second-half imports may have been weakened by frontloading ahead of tariff deadlines in April, and again for July and August.

The National Retail Federation estimates that second-half shipments will be lower by 10% from the same period in 2024. October imports are forecast to be 13% lower, and 20% down in November and December.

September imports are running 16% ahead of the retail group’s projections made at the beginning of August, indicating some positive impact from the ongoing 30% U.S. tariffs on China.

While there is some skepticism that punitive U.S. port charges on China-linked shipping set to take effect Oct. 14 will survive the trade talks, carriers continue to shift tonnage to minimize their exposure. 

Ocean Network Express (ONE) is redeploying 10 Chinese-built ships in U.S. service as the Premier Alliance divides its trans-Atlantic service into an Asia-Mediterranean loop and a Middle East-U.S. service.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Stuart Chirls

Stuart Chirls is a journalist who has covered the full breadth of railroads, intermodal, container shipping, ports, supply chain and logistics for Railway Age, the Journal of Commerce and IANA. He has also staffed at S&P, McGraw-Hill, United Business Media, Advance Media, Tribune Co., The New York Times Co., and worked in supply chain with BASF, the world's largest chemical producer. Reach him at stuartchirls@firecrown.com.