Xeneta: Iran tensions could delay Red Sea return
While ocean carriers wrangle with too many ships and too little cargo, continuing weak rates on the Asia-U.S. trade route are starting to show up on other benchmark shipping lanes.
“Average spot rates are down this week across all main fronthaul trades out of the Far East,” said Peter Sand, Xeneta chief analyst, in a note to clients. “From Far East to U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast, it is a textbook market development with falling spot rates coinciding with a slight uptick in offered capacity.”
Market average spot rates for the week ending Feb. 19 for Far East to U.S. West Coast were $1,889 per forty foot container (FEU), down from $2,052 the previous week. Far East to U.S. East Coast settled at $2,688 per FEU, from $2,882.
The trans-Pacific has been whipsawed by importers playing a waiting game, while carriers struggle to manage overcapacity.
Xeneta’s four-week rolling average of offered capacity as of Feb. 16 increased 2.7% from the previous week on Asia-West Coast services, and by 2.2% to the East Coast.
The market uncertainty comes at a particularly inconvenient time for liner companies entering contract negotiations with shippers. An expected push for higher rates after a difficult 2025 that saw year-on-year profit decreases for major public liners may come up short if demand continues to be muddled by economic concerns aggravated by tariffs.
Conversely, the other major Asian trade lanes also weakened, but amid contrary circumstances.
“It is a different story from Far East to North Europe where offered capacity has decreased week-on-week but spot rates continue to fall,” said Sand, suggesting an even weaker market on this trade. That’s headline news since China in 2025 found substantial export markets in Europe after tariffs substantially reduced volumes to the U.S.
“2026 is expected to be a year defined by overcapacity in container shipping, compounded by a large-scale return of services to the Red Sea,” Sand said. “Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could influence this situation, especially if it threatens Houthi militia resuming attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.
“Even if there is not a full escalation in conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the military posturing and rhetoric from political leaders can influence the security situation in the region and see carriers slow down plans to resume Red Sea transits. If so, this would delay a wider return of container shipping to the Red Sea and ease the overcapacity headache for carriers deeper into 2026.”
North Europe to U.S. East Coast edged higher to $1,492 per FEU, from $1,484 the previous week on capacity that shrank by almost 10%.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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