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Trucking exodus: A new threat to US ocean logistics

ITS: Truck issues loom as weaker ocean volumes de-stress container operations

Stuart Chirls
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(Photo: FreightWaves/Jim Allen)
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Key Takeaways:

  • Falling international container volumes have led to normal operations at U.S. ports and rail ramps, but major changes are anticipated by 2026.
  • An accelerating exit of trucking companies, combined with a federal initiative to remove up to 600,000 non-domiciled CDL holders, threatens to create severe trucking capacity issues.
  • These factors could drastically change the landscape of North American port and ramp operations.
  • A recent spike in Pacific Coast trucking activity suggests shippers may be proactively addressing these looming capacity risks for 2026.
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Falling international container volumes have been a silver lining for U.S. ramp operations, but major changes are looming for ocean shipping logistics.

“November’s index data confirms our October forecast, showing a continued pattern of import and export volume decreases,” said ITS Logistics in its monthly port rail/ramp freight index. “With those volume decreases, port, terminal, and ocean carrier operations remain at normal levels and should remain so through November.”

The report rated as “normal” container operations at major ports on the west, east and Gulf coasts as well as international and domestic container rail ramp operations in the western and eastern portions of the country.

But ITS warned that “[a]s we get closer to 2026, there are some items we are keeping a close eye on that could drastically change the landscape in North American port and ramp operations.”

As has been extensively covered in FreightWaves and noted in the report, trucking companies have been exiting the market at an accelerated rate as an extended freight recession has pummeled rates and raised operating costs, leading to increased shutdowns and bankruptcies. 

“This, in addition to a federal initiative to remove non-domiciled Commercial Drivers License (CDL) holders from service, could create trucking capacity issues for most shippers,” ITS said. “It is estimated [by transportation economist Noël Perry] that as many as 600,000 drivers could be removed from the U.S. driver ecosystem due to non-domiciled driver and English language proficiency (ELP) enforcement.”

November also saw a “significant spike” in trucking activity on the Pacific Coast from October, likely due “to shippers taking steps to replace actual and potential capacity at risk due to the aforementioned challenges. We will be watching closely throughout the month and providing an update in the December index, as this activity may be the beginning of a trend that could impact 2026 operations.”

This article was updated Nov. 18 to attribute the figure of 600,000 CDL drivers being removed to transportation economist Noël Perry.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Stuart Chirls

Stuart Chirls is a journalist who has covered the full breadth of railroads, intermodal, container shipping, ports, supply chain and logistics for Railway Age, the Journal of Commerce and IANA. He has also staffed at S&P, McGraw-Hill, United Business Media, Advance Media, Tribune Co., The New York Times Co., and worked in supply chain with BASF, the world's largest chemical producer. Reach him at stuartchirls@firecrown.com.