While inbound traffic through the top 10 ports registered a 3.2% improvement year-on-year, analysis by shipping consultant John McCown characterized the gains as temporary as U.S. tariffs hinder near-term trade flows across the globe.
“[July was] a temporary reprieve and was driven by frontloading to get goods in prior to additional tariffs going into effect in early August,” McCown wrote in a monthly update, noting the slight bounceback followed decreases of 8.3% in June and 6.6% in May.
“The trailing three-month figures continue to show inbound volume in a pronounced downtrend that has now been going on for six months. Outbound volume in July was down 0.3%, the fourth straight decline coming after decreases of 1.7% in June and 2.3% in May.
For the three months ending in July, inbound volume was down 3.7% and it has been in a consistent downward trend since the three months ending in January when it showed a 14.0% increase.”
The National Retail Federation expects total 2025 import volume to be off 5.6% y/y.
“Given that year-to-date volume for the first seven months of 2025 is actually up 3.6%, that projection translates into volume for the five months remaining in 2025 to be down 17.5%,” the report stated. “The inbound declines in the balance of this year will be completely driven by tariffs. I anticipate a negative trendline with some months showing more than 17.5% decreases.’
The report underscored the unusual nature of that decline in container shipping’s 60 year history.
“For a tangible metric that has consistently for decades grown above U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product), most often at two, three or even more multiples of GDP, the unusual nature of an actual decline in inbound container volume into the U.S. cannot be overemphasized,” wrote McCown.
Data has U.S. container volume changes below the rest of the world, with additional tariffs sure to widen the gap. The data is now also starting to point to major shifts of inbound volume to North America away from U.S. ports, the report found.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
Related coverage:
Gulf Coast ports post mixed July results: Houston, New Orleans up, Corpus Christi down
EU-US pact to steady trans-Atlantic trade, forwarder says — with one exception
Tariff clarity can’t shore up falling ocean container rates
Vast forwarding network helps DP World see surge in first-half profit
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