NTI

Tender rejections have yet to return to mid-May’s all-time low, but their softness could persist in a trough for the next two quarters.

Weekly NTI Update

One last round of bad news to cap this week: China and the U.S. both posted dismal data from their respective industrial economies.

Volumes did see some growth ahead of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday, though not nearly enough to bust out the champagne and sparklers.

Weekly NTI Update

So as not to bury the lede, this week’s lack of change in the PPI might ultimately prove to be the most exciting stability in quite some time.

Weekly NTI Update

Despite expectations for seasonal growth in the second quarter, the health of the American consumer has continued to become more precarious, stirring headwinds for even once-reliable sources of freight.

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) is holding its annual International Roadcheck next Tuesday through Thursday.

Weekly NTI Update

Weekly NTI Update

Volumes are just beginning to tick up at the tail end of April, but freight demand in the quarter has been mostly flat and thus grossly unseasonable.

Weekly NTI Update

Weekly NTI Update

What do historically low rejection rates mean for the truckload industry?

While ocean carriers are not facing the same risks as their domestic trucking counterparts, given their consolidation and enormous war chests, ocean’s weakness in demand will continue to trickle down into truckload markets.

Weekly NTI Update

Upstream and historic values are predicting another strong deterioration in truckload spot rates in April. How seriously should we take this?

Despite seeing slight seasonal growth, truckload markets are showing a continued soft patch.

Weekly NTI Update

The gap between current levels of freight demand and those of 2019 is narrowing, casting doubt on the market’s ability to sustain growth.

Weekly NTI Update

The consumer will be key to resolving the present tension in freight demand’s future, but consumers continue to be predictably unpredictable.

Weekly NTI Update

Market conditions will likely become a bit more favorable before they get much worse.

Weekly NTI Update

Strangely enough, tender volumes are abiding by seasonal trends.

Weekly NTI Update

Weekly NTI Update

Strangely enough, tender volumes are abiding by seasonal trends. The first quarter of 2022 was unusually active as shippers tried to get ahead of disruptions to capacity, which historically tightens in the spring.

Weekly NTI Update

With the inflation-squeezed consumer running through their discretionary budgets, freight demand is in a precarious state.

Weekly NTI Update

Consumers’ appetite for discretionary spending has been usurped in favor of squirreling away income into personal savings.

Weekly NTI Update

Volumes have continued their recovery from the winter holiday season with a surge in pent-up freight demand unleashed into the market. Naturally, since last week’s data was affected by holiday noise, the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) faces some absurdly easy comps on a weekly basis. Even still, accepted tender volumes remain below their levels of 2021 and ’22 for the time being. 

Weekly NTI Update

Volumes have continued their recovery from the winter holiday season with a surge in pent-up freight demand unleashed into the market. Naturally, since last week’s data was affected by holiday noise, the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) faces some absurdly easy comps on a weekly basis. Even still, accepted tender volumes remain below their levels of 2021 and ’22 for the time being. 

Weekly NTI Update

For all intents and purposes, the month of December has only three weeks of freight activity, as the final week from Christmas to New Year’s is effectively null. In years prior, freight demand has fallen throughout the month before bottoming out in that final week. So far, December looks to be following seasonal trends, which is to say that, while shippers’ activity is winding down, this movement is not alarming by itself. Rather, the gap in freight demand between 2022 and ’21 (or even ’20) is the main symptom of current ailments.

Weekly NTI Update

For all intents and purposes, the month of December has only three weeks of freight activity, as the final week from Christmas to New Year’s is effectively null. In years prior, freight demand has fallen throughout the month before bottoming out in that final week. So far, December looks to be following seasonal trends, which is to say that, while shippers’ activity is winding down, this movement is not alarming by itself. Rather, the gap in freight demand between 2022 and ’21 (or even ’20) is the main symptom of current ailments.

Weekly NTI Update

Contrary to popular opinion, December is not a peak season for freight. True, the freight that needs to be moved in this month typically has greater urgency than usual, which does put upward pressure on carrier rates. But peak truckload volumes are largely influenced by maritime imports, which historically peak between July and September.

Weekly NTI Update

Historically, November is the month in which maritime imports begin to move inland for their final push before the holiday shopping season. Yet such imports were lost at sea this year, failing to materialize during ocean shippers’ peak season. This one-two punch of weakened import volumes and overstocked retail inventories means that carriers are left with fewer opportunities to source freight.

Weekly NTI Update

Weekly NTI Update

Historically, November is the month in which maritime imports begin to move inland for their final push before the holiday shopping season. Yet such imports were lost at sea this year, failing to materialize during ocean shippers’ peak season. This one-two punch of weakened import volumes and overstocked retail inventories means that carriers are left with fewer opportunities to source freight.

Outbound demand in Harrisburg and Allentown, Pennsylvania, bottomed out at the start of the month and are starting to slowly rise. Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, both are seeing rejection rates drop to a two-year low.

FreightWaves SONAR recently released two new market analysis tools that provide lane-level rate benchmarking capabilities and insight into the future state of the domestic truckload spot market. 

Atlanta still owns the most market share by outbound volume but saw a drop in its value as demand falls further. Imports to the Port of New York and New Jersey fell to their lowest levels since 2021, bringing surface transportation volumes down with them.

Contracted tender volumes in Ontario, California, remain at their lowest levels since 2020, and markets in Illinois are struggling to recover from drops this month.

Weekly NTI Update

Markets along the East Coast in the path of Tropical Depression Nicole are seeing relatively normal fluctuations in rejections in volume compared to previous severe storms.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Dry van volume dropped significantly this month leading into the holidays, but reefer demand remains strong. Diesel price per gallon grows slowly, but the spread between wholesale and retail prices rises.

Markets across the board have been seeing drops in both inbound and outbound volume since the start of the month.

FreightWaves unveiled two new features in SONAR at the F3 event, and container spot rates from China dropped further.

Weekly NTI Update

Weekly NTI Update

Truckload volumes in Elizabeth, New Jersey, are still rising after a boost in imports last week, but that will likely change in the days ahead. Detroit’s volume boom went bust, bringing reactions to their lowest on record since 2018.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Charlotte, North Carolina, is seeing a slow recovery after volumes dropped to their lowest levels since February of 2021, and reefer volume in Milwaukee is up more than 22% this week.

Outbound demand in Denver is swinging up after falling to a two-year low earlier this month, and Salt Lake City has shown consistent headhaul market activity since Labor Day.

Outbound demand in Fort Worth, Texas, is up for the second week in a row, and diesel prices have stopped increasing but show no sign of which direction they will go next.

Ontario, California, outbound volumes have been trending up the last two weeks, while volumes in Joliet, Illinois, started to recover but have flatlined.

Weekly NTI Update

Declining contract volumes may bring large carriers into the spot market, forcing spot rates into negative margin territory if they are not already there.

Overall outbound volume levels out of Milwaukee are down this month, with the majority of the drop coming from reefer demand. Atlanta’s outbound volumes have trickled down this month, bringing down its market share.

Imported container volumes to the Port of New York and New Jersey are up this week after a 27% decline, and outbound volumes in Detroit remain high but aren’t gaining any more ground.

Dallas lost more market share by outbound volume this week as volumes continue to decline, and spot rates from China to the East and West coasts of the US dropped after a week of little to no change.

Volumes out of Seattle are trending up this week after reaching a two-year low, and diesel prices are up more than 30 cents since the start of the month.

Imports to the Port of Houston saw an increase in the first week of October, bringing up truckload volumes. Fall produce in Spokane, Washington, builds demand.

Weekly NTI Update

Imported container volumes to LA are up this week after taking a drop in the beginning of Q4, allowing the surface transportation market to start to recover leading into peak season.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Demand peaked over the summer in Detroit, but volumes are taking a sharp drop this month; and Nashville sees a major upswing in Q4.

Reefer volumes in Illinois remained elevated throughout most of October 2021. Although they were up leading into October this year, reefer volumes have since dropped significantly.

After a monthlong decline in volumes from Southern California, they begin to tick upward this week, and spot rates from Rotterdam to New York rise 8.4%.

The Lakeland and Jacksonville markets are both recovering from Ian, but tender rejections remain relatively high. Retail diesel prices are swinging back up, collapsing the spread between retail and wholesale.

Weekly NTI Update

The truckload market is already experiencing a rapid deterioration in pricing. How long until the LTL market recognizes this inevitability?

Hurricane Ian boosted spot rates in the southeast over the past 10 days, but as rejection rates and volumes decline, when will spot rates on a national level take another step lower.

After reaching a six-month high in outbound demand, volume in Chicago is on a steady downward stream, and both major markets in Pennsylvania are also experiencing declines.

Dallas, Cincinnati and Denver are all experiencing upward trends after outbound volume lows.

As Southern California is the heartbeat of outbound truckload volume, the significant decrease in freight coming out of the region reflects in national freight volumes; maritime booking volume from all ports in SONAR Container Atlas are down 20% from this time last year.

The reefer market in Milwaukee is the primary driver behind its demand, and in the last year volumes are down 59%. Ocean spot rates from China to both U.S. coasts drop even further as the fourth quarter starts.

Atlanta is seeing consistent levels of outbound volume, retaining the majority market share with 4.1%. Diesel prices are decreasing at a faster rate than they increased over the summer.

Weekly NTI Update

Carriers and brokers tend to have the weather on a TV somewhere in their facilities throughout hurricane season because of the dramatic impacts storms can have on their operations and bottom lines. Ian hit at a time when trucking will not be as reactive to this devastating storm.

Prepárese para el “invierno de los camiones”.  Todd Fowler y Carney Blake de KeyBanc, que son los analistas de carga aérea y logística del grupo, escribieron en una nota el jueves que la actividad de carga ha sido “estacionalmente débil”.   Ha habido “indicios limitados” de la típica actividad de temporada alta que los transportadores y […]

Analysts are predicting that carriers won’t experience a typical peak season. That’s bad news for the trucking industry.

The port of Savannah imported more than 200,000 TEUs in September, and truckload volumes in Denver plunged to a two-year low.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Reefer volumes in Fresno, California, continue a decline as September closes, while both inbound and outbound volumes in Memphis, Tennessee, are consistently trending upward.

Atlanta is seeing a sharp rise in outbound volume, and markets in Florida, southern Georgia and Alabama increase inbound volume in preparation for the hurricane.

Truckload volumes in Ontario, California, decline as the ports hit their lowest market share in decades, and Port Houston sees a drop in imports.

Weekly NTI Update